So many questions about Trey Mancini

[wildcard]

Trey is 10 months away from being eligible for free agency.   Here are a bunch of questions that he and the O's face:

Can he stay well?

Can he return to his 2019 production?

Do the O's trade him?

What is his trade value considering the extremes of the first two questions.

Do the O's extend him?

What kind  of a contract would he accept? Length? Incentive based?

Do the O's wait until he is a free agent and then decide if they want to re-sign him?

When are younger player(s) ready to take his spot?

When does he get too expensive  considering the young players available?

There seems to be a wide range of answers to these questions that Elias, Ownership,  Trey  and his agent need to address.   What is your take?

[maybenxtyr]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trey is 10 months away from being eligible for free agency.   Here are a bunch of questions that he and the O's face:

Can he stay well?

Can he return to his 2019 production?

Do the O's trade him?

What is his trade value considering the extremes of the first two questions.

Do the O's extend him?

What kind  of a contract would he accept? Length? Incentive based?

Do the O's wait until he is a free agent and then decide if they want to re-sign him?

When are younger player(s) ready to take his spot?

When does he get too expensive  considering the young players available?

There seems to be a wide range of answers to these questions that Elias, Ownership,  Trey  and his agent need to address.   What is your take?

Let him play this season and try to trade him at the deadline. If there's no offers he becomes a free agent. That's really the only 2 options when you consider the players coming up and the need to not pay for redundancy instead of pitching.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Trey is 10 months away from being eligible for free agency.   Here are a bunch of questions that he and the O's face:

Can he stay well?

Can he return to his 2019 production?

Do the O's trade him?

What is his trade value considering the extremes of the first two questions.

Do the O's extend him?

What kind  of a contract would he accept? Length? Incentive based?

Do the O's wait until he is a free agent and then decide if they want to re-sign him?

When are younger player(s) ready to take his spot?

When does he get too expensive  considering the young players available?

There seems to be a wide range of answers to these questions that Elias, Ownership,  Trey  and his agent need to address.   What is your take?

If he was a FA right now what number would you be happy with if the O's signed him? Do you think he could get 2 years at 5-6 million a year? 

[Aristotelian]

I would not extend a RH DH no matter how good and would not pay for being a nice guy. Only question IMO is whether he has or can build any trade value. Unfortunately I suspect the time to trade him was last year when he had a good start and had extra year of control.

 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

Let him play this season and try to trade him at the deadline. If there's no offers he becomes a free agent. That's really the only 2 options when you consider the players coming up and the need to not pay for redundancy instead of pitching.

Yep. I’d like to be able to trade him onto the team the wins the World Series, but he shouldn’t be on the 23 team. 

[Frobby]

Definitely yes.  Unlikely but possible.  Probably.  Not very high.  No.  3/$30 mm, without incentives.  They’ve already decided.   Players will be ready by the time he’s traded or the year ends.  Then he’ll be too expensive.  

Next?
 

[maybenxtyr]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Definitely yes.  Unlikely but possible.  Probably.  Not very high.  No.  3/$30 mm, without incentives.  They’ve already decided.   Players will be ready by the time he’s traded or the year ends.  Then he’ll be too expensive.  

Next?
 

Not trying to be argumentative but do you really believe it would take a 3/30 to sign a RH DH?

[interloper]

If you can trade him to a contender, you try to do that for him almost no matter what the return is. Otherwise just let him play out the season and walk into the sunset.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Not trying to be argumentative but do you really believe it would take a 3/30 to sign a RH DH?

Nelson Cruz got 1/$8M from us and I think his resume was at least as good.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Not trying to be argumentative but do you really believe it would take a 3/30 to sign a RH DH?

I was more commenting on what he’d accept from the O’s now, not what he might get on the open market after this season.  

Maybe he’d take less, considering that he’ll only make $7-8 mm in arbitration.  

I don’t think it matters whether he’s RH or LH.   He’s an everyday player who hits both RHP and LHP well.   

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Nelson Cruz got 1/$8M from us and I think his resume was at least as good.

Cruz had some steroid issues floating around that caused people to wonder if he’d be able to repeat his performance without being on the juice (or being caught on the juice).   His big year in Baltimore answered that.   

Anyway, like I said, I’m talking about what Mancini would accept to sign an extension now, not what the market might offer him next winter.  There’s really not much point to him doing an extension if it isn’t going to cover three years.   Maybe he’d take a little less than $30 mm.   But it’s academic because the O’s won’t offer an extension.  
 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Definitely yes.  Unlikely but possible.  Probably.  Not very high.  No.  3/$30 mm, without incentives.  They’ve already decided.   Players will be ready by the time he’s traded or the year ends.  Then he’ll be too expensive.  

Next?
 

Interesting that you have completely blown off the question of his health.  Especially when he was tested during the 2021 season and had a positive test then had to be re-checked which allowed him to continue with the season.

I have a family member that had cancer last year and she is tested every six month for re-occurrence.   Believe me if she tests positive everything else in her world will stop.   The same is true for Mancini.    A stage 3 diagnosis is very serious.

You talk about Cruz signing for  less became of a steroid issue.   A stage 3 diagnosis is an issue that may cause GMs not to want to offer a 3 year contract.

I know you are projecting what Mancini would accept but Mancini is well aware of the possibly of re-occurrence and how that may affect what teams may offer him.   My opinion is he would accept a 2 year contract if offered.  Maybe even a one year deal like Cruz did.

JMO

[Sports Guy]

Some of these questions shouldn’t even be on the table.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Nelson Cruz got 1/$8M from us and I think his resume was at least as good.

It's a good comparison because Cruz through 2013 and Mancini right now are very similarly rated offensively. Cruz through 2013 season had a career .823 OPS and 114 OPS+. Mancini for his career is a 804 OPS and 115 OPS+ hitter. 

Cruz took his game to another level in his 30's and I don't see Mancini doing the same, but Mancini could have more seasons like his 2019 numbers two years removed from cancer. 

Whatever happens I don't see Elias signing Trey to a long term contract, but bringing him back on a one or two year deal is a possibility. 

[HowAboutThat]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Trey is 10 months away from being eligible for free agency.   Here are a bunch of questions that he and the O's face:

Can he stay well?

Can he return to his 2019 production?

Do the O's trade him?

What is his trade value considering the extremes of the first two questions.

Do the O's extend him?

What kind  of a contract would he accept? Length? Incentive based?

Do the O's wait until he is a free agent and then decide if they want to re-sign him?

When are younger player(s) ready to take his spot?

When does he get too expensive  considering the young players available?

There seems to be a wide range of answers to these questions that Elias, Ownership,  Trey  and his agent need to address.   What is your take?

They don’t trade him unless they are in dump mode. They don’t extend him because extensions are almost always dumb and with such a limited player who is pushing 30 it would be even dumber.

The other questions are irrelevant or unknowable at this time.