So many questions about Trey Mancini

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Nelson Cruz got 1/$8M from us and I think his resume was at least as good.

 Nelson Cruz is a borderline Hall of Famer, his résumé is far better, for far longer.

[maybenxtyr]

40 minutes ago, Philip said:

They don’t trade him unless they are in dump mode. They don’t extend him because extensions are almost always dumb and with such a limited player who is pushing 30 it would be even dumber.

The other questions are irrelevant or unknowable at this time.

 

They trade him if he's having a good first half because his current team is probably going to be close to a 100 loss team and they need pitching. That is, if he can net them a pitcher. 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

 Nelson Cruz is a borderline Hall of Famer, his résumé is far better, for far longer.

He surprisingly is a borderline case. 449 HR. Not that there aren’t a lot of other guys I’d put in before him, but I wonder if he could play 2 more years and reach 500. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

He surprisingly is a borderline case. 449 HR. Not that there aren’t a lot of other guys I’d put in before him, but I wonder if he could play 2 more years and reach 500. 

He isn't borderline if Bonds doesn't get in.

[waroriole]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He isn't borderline if Bonds doesn't get in.

The whole damn thing is meaningless without the best player ever, but looking beyond that embarrassing oversight……

[Sports Guy]

Very little in sports bothers me more than MLB HOF voting.

So many of the voters shouldn’t be allowed to vote.  They make it about them. They are like the umpire who shows up the other team acting like the fans came to see them.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

He surprisingly is a borderline case. 449 HR. Not that there aren’t a lot of other guys I’d put in before him, but I wonder if he could play 2 more years and reach 500. 

I don’t think he should get in, but he’s close. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Interesting that you have completely blown off the question of his health.  Especially when he was tested during the 2021 season and had a positive test then had to be re-checked which allowed him to continue with the season.

I have a family member that had cancer last year and she is tested every six month for re-occurrence.   Believe me if she tests positive everything else in her world will stop.   The same is true for Mancini.    A stage 3 diagnosis is very serious.

You talk about Cruz signing for  less became of a steroid issue.   A stage 3 diagnosis is an issue that may cause GMs not to want to offer a 3 year contract.

I know you are projecting what Mancini would accept but Mancini is well aware of the possibly of re-occurrence and how that may affect what teams may offer him.   My opinion is he would accept a 2 year contract if offered.  Maybe even a one year deal like Cruz did.

JMO

Well, I’m sure Mancini is being tested regularly and is well aware of the risk of recurrence.    I’d say a recurrence this soon is not very likely, but of course I’m no doctor and don’t know any of the specifics about Mancini.   Praying for the best.   

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I’m sure Mancini is being tested regularly and is well aware of the risk of recurrence.    I’d say a recurrence this soon is not very likely, but of course I’m no doctor and don’t know any of the specifics about Mancini.   Praying for the best.   

But as a GM they don't just pray for the best.  They evaluate the risk.

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

They trade him if he's having a good first half because his current team is probably going to be close to a 100 loss team and they need pitching. That is, if he can net them a pitcher. 

They are not going to get a meaningful return for Trey. If they trade him before the season starts, it will be mainly a salary dump. If he has a good first half and they trade him at the deadline, they won’t get much back for him because of his limitations, and because the receiving team only have him for a couple of months.

It is possible that Elias may be able to do some Effective horse trading and get an unusual return for Trey, but it remains to be seen whether Mike can do that kind of trading.

[maybenxtyr]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

They are not going to get a meaningful return for Trey. If they trade him before the season starts, it will be mainly a salary dump. If he has a good first half and they trade him at the deadline, they won’t get much back for him because of his limitations, and because the receiving team only have him for a couple of months.

It is possible that Elias may be able to do some Effective horse trading and get an unusual return for Trey, but it remains to be seen whether Mike can do that kind of trading.

I don't disagree...any return will be a lottery ticket. 

[Ruzious]

On 12/4/2021 at 9:30 AM, Frobby said:

Cruz had some steroid issues floating around that caused people to wonder if he’d be able to repeat his performance without being on the juice (or being caught on the juice).   His big year in Baltimore answered that.   

Anyway, like I said, I’m talking about what Mancini would accept to sign an extension now, not what the market might offer him next winter.  There’s really not much point to him doing an extension if it isn’t going to cover three years.   Maybe he’d take a little less than $30 mm.   But it’s academic because the O’s won’t offer an extension.  
 

While you're right that it's extremely unlikely the O's give him an extension, I think he's not in as good a situation as you seem to think he is.  If I was his agent, I'd love for him to get a 2/15 deal.      

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Ruzious said:

While you're right that it's extremely unlikely the O's give him an extension, I think he's not in as good a situation as you seem to think he is.  If I was his agent, I'd love for him to get a 2/15 deal.      

It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value.  

Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115.  Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+.   This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games.   I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm.   

David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm.   He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons.  Mancini will be 30 this year.   

Then you have a guy like Wil Myers who had a 110 OPS+ through 2016 including 115 OPS+ that year, and signed for 6/$83 mm including $22.5 mm/yr for three FA years.   

Mark Trumbo had a career 113 OPS+ and was coming off his 47 homer, 122 OPS+ campaign when he signed for 3/$37.5 mm with the O’s.   Not clear he could have got close to that elsewhere.  

Long and short, Mancini is in a sort of in-betweenish spot, and how he does in 2022 will matter a lot to his FA value.   

 

 

[bobmc]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value.  

Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115.  Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+.   This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games.   I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm.   

David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm.   He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons.  Mancini will be 30 this year.   

Then you have a guy like Wil Myers who had a 110 OPS+ through 2016 including 115 OPS+ that year, and signed for 6/$83 mm including $22.5 mm/yr for three FA years.   

Mark Trumbo had a career 113 OPS+ and was coming off his 47 homer, 122 OPS+ campaign when he signed for 3/$37.5 mm with the O’s.   Not clear he could have got close to that elsewhere.  

Long and short, Mancini is in a sort of in-betweenish spot, and how he does in 2022 will matter a lot to his FA value.   

 

Trey is working quite a bit with Trumbo now in SoCal so they might discuss that subject from time to time.  

 

 

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value.  

Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115.  Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+.   This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games.   I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm.   

David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm.   He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons.  Mancini will be 30 this year.   

Then you have a guy like Wil Myers who had a 110 OPS+ through 2016 including 115 OPS+ that year, and signed for 6/$83 mm including $22.5 mm/yr for three FA years.   

Mark Trumbo had a career 113 OPS+ and was coming off his 47 homer, 122 OPS+ campaign when he signed for 3/$37.5 mm with the O’s.   Not clear he could have got close to that elsewhere.  

Long and short, Mancini is in a sort of in-betweenish spot, and how he does in 2022 will matter a lot to his FA value.   

 

 

None of those comps are really that similar to Trey because he has the unique  situation of having stage 3 cancer and went through chemo.   Any GM offering a multi year contract must include that as a risk factor which may shorten the number of years a team may want to commit guaranteed money.

That said I think Trey's value is low right now because of his second half of 2021.   With a normal off season of Trey being the worker that he is should allow him to have much better 2022.   

I am very much in favor of signing Trey to a two year contract or a one year with an option year.   That way he is not a rental player this season and if he has a good 1st half that probably raise his value at the deadline or even over next winter.