Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.
By
waynebug
in Orioles Talk
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By EddeeEddee · Posted
Great post. I like your optimism, and I'll try to believe this team can turn things around just in the nick of time like some classic Hollywood baseball movie. -
By EddeeEddee · Posted
I think Elias has mostly done an excellent job with one exception -- he seems like he treats the bullpen like an afterthought. I doubt that will happen again this coming offseason. I don't really blame him for the current offensive struggles overall. Just too many injuries late in the season. That said I don't understand how we went from dealing Austin Hays, Connor Norby and Ryan McKenna just so we could land the right handed bat of, gulp, Austin Slater. -
By Baseball fandom · Posted
Man this team has no shot. Right now they may not even make it. -
By EddeeEddee · Posted
Most of these guys are only playing because of injuries to starters. But Austin Slater I'm guessing was brought in to replace the traded Austin Hays. The problem is that Slater has shown little ability to hit lefties this year, after hitting them pretty well up to this season. This must be why two teams dropped him before the O's picked him up. I know he was let go much earlier in the season, but is Ryan McKenna actually worse than this guy? I don't understand how the front office went from releasing McKenna to later trading Hays and Norby -- thinking their right handed bats could adequately be replaced by someone like Slater. -
By Baseball fandom · Posted
I'm willing to give Elias some rope because of the strict limitations he was under with JA but he better not be so damn conservative again this year and let every serviceable FA out there sign with other teams while he's busy picking up reclamation projects again. Minus Burns of course. -
I agree completely that it’s irrelevant whether it worked. But I don’t agree that bunting is clearly the right decision in either scenario, and I think that decision gets worse if it’s intended to be a straight sacrifice rather than a bunt for a hit. To be clear, the outcome you’re seeking in tonight’s situation, for example — sacrifice the runners over to 2nd/3rd — lowers both your run expectancy for the inning (from 1.44 to 1.39) and your win expectancy for the game (from 38.8% to 37.1%). It increases the likelihood of scoring one run, but it decreases the likelihood of scoring two runs (which you needed to tie) and certainly of scoring three or more runs (which you needed to take the lead). And that’s if you succeed in getting them to 2nd/3rd. Research indicates that 15-30% of sacrifice bunt attempts fail, so you have to bake in a pretty significant percentage of the time that you’d just be giving up a free out (or even just two free strikes, as on Sunday). The bunt attempt in the 3rd inning on Sunday (which my gut hates more than if they’d done it today) actually is less damaging to the win probability — decreasing it only very slightly from 60.2% to 59.8%. More time left in the game to make up for giving up outs, I guess, and the scoreboard payoff is a bit better (in the sense that at least you’d have a better chance to take the lead). At the bottom of it, these things mostly come down to gut and pure chance. The percentages are rarely overwhelming in either direction, and so sometimes even a “lower-percentage” play may work better under some circumstances. You would have bunted both times. I wouldn’t have bunted either time. Hyde bunted one time but not the other. I don’t know that anyone is an idiot (or even clearly “wrong”) for their preference. Either approach could have worked. Sadly, none of them actually did. -
By Baseball fandom · Posted
Wasn't Hyde always thought of more or less as a caretaker? I'm on the fence about him coming back. I totally get the injuries and that needs to be taking into consideration but man this collapse some heads have to roll who's I'm mot sure
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