Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

It’s already over

[wildcard]

The rebuild will be over when the O's win their third consecutive  World Series.  Then it will be time to start the next rebuild.

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

I'd go with already over. We have gotten rid of most of the veterans and acquired what talent we could get back. We have gotten our farm system to #1 overall with several of the key pieces on the cusp of the Majors. While we are still at a low point in terms of wins, the future core is in place and from this point on we should be getting more and more competitive, with the goal of never having to rebuild again. 

[Moose Milligan]

When did the dork who started MLBTR all of a sudden have an opinion that mattered? That site used to be like a Drudge Report of baseball trade rumors…no original content, just compiling tidbits of info in one place. 
 

Tim Dierkes has as much insight into the Orioles payroll plans as the guy who made my breakfast burrito this morning. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

When did the dork who started MLBTR all of a sudden have an opinion that mattered? That site used to be like a Drudge Report of baseball trade rumors…no original content, just compiling tidbits of info in one place. 
 

Tim Dierkes has as much insight into the Orioles payroll plans as the guy who made my breakfast burrito this morning. 

Well, I wouldn’t put it as sneakily as that, but I basically agree.   He has no basis to know.   I’d like to see the exact Q & A on this point to understand why he was even opining on the subject and exactly what he said.  

As to the substance, I think it’s unlikely our payroll would be that high by 2024, even if we are contending and acting aggressively to supplement the home grown talent.   However, there’s so many variables in terms of who from the current organization could be on the 2024 roster that it’s really tough to speculate about it much.
 

[Porky]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild:

The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row.

In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure.

So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild?

The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019.

So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades.

The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey.

After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30.

So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

 

 

 

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Porky said:

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild:

The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row.

In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure.

So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild?

The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019.

So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades.

The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey.

After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30.

So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

 

 

 

The Astros would seem to be the most relevant example since Elias was part of it. It went like this:

2011 56 wins, $94M

2012 55 wins, $82M

2013 51 wins, $49M

2014 70 wins, $70M

2015 86 wins, $107M

In 2014 coming off 51 wins, they traded for Dexter Fowler ($7M) and signed Scott Feldman ($12M).

In 2015, they signed Colby Rasmus ($8M), Pat Neshek ($5M), Jed Lowrie ($8M), and Luke Gregerson ($6M), plus traded for Scott Kazmir ($13M annual). 

In 2021 dollars, the 2015 number would be pretty close to the projected $130M.

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Porky said:

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild:

The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row.

In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure.

So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild?

The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019.

So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades.

The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey.

After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30.

So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

Some teams rebuild, others retool.   It’s a matter of semantics, but to me most rebuilds really have two phases: the tear down and the rebuild.    For me, the Orioles teardown has about ended but the rebuild part is really just beginning.    

As to your three examples, the Reds went from $112 mm to $77 mm payroll in 2015-16, stayed stable in 2017, started increasing payroll again in 2018 and have been in the $110-121 mm range the last three years.  I’d call 2016-17 the tear down, 2018 the rebuild.   Philly went from  $176 mm in 2014 to $85 mm in 2016, stayed steady for 3 years, ramped way up in 2019 to $142 mm, now up to $181 mm.  I’d call 2015-17 the teardown, 2018-19 the rebuild.   The Giants to me are more a retool than a rebuild.   Their payroll has never been lower than last year’s $149.9 since 2013, but that’s still a sizable payroll.   They really had everything go their way in the 2021 regular season, much like the 2013 Red Sox, and to a large extent, the 2010 Giants.   
 

[spiritof66]

52 minutes ago, Porky said:

Answering your question with a question --- let's take a look at other rebuilds of late and maybe explore the fuzziness of what can be called a rebuild:

The Cincinnati Reds: They embarked on a rebuild in 2015 when they traded away many of their players after a strong run from 2010-2013. They finished the year with 64 wins and would post losing seasons again in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 as they rebuilt - resulting in six straight losing seasons in a row.

In 2019 and 2020, they made moves to add Bauer, Castellanos, Moustakas, and others in an effort to become contenders. They finished 31-29 in 2020 to finally make the playoffs, but lost to the Braves in the wildcard round. They finished 83-79 in 2021 and missed the playoffs. Now, ownership has said they will likely need to scale back payroll to be more realistic with the market after a few years of over-expenditure.

So, is their rebuild over? A one-and-done playoff appearance and two slight winning seasons later? Or does the past eight years just represent the first wave in a much longer rebuild? Or... is it just a failed rebuild?

The Philadelphia Phillies: After a really good run from 2001-2011, the Phillies held onto their aging core longer than most. They finished 81-81 in 2012 and didn't get back to a "winning" season till 2021 with a 82-80 record. They have yet to make the playoffs. For their "rebuild," Andy McPhail was hired in 2015 - so I'd say their rebuild started around then. The signed Harper and others in 2019.

So, in their rebuild over? They finally had a winning season after nine seasons without one. But, no playoff appearances. They finished two games above .500 this year. And their farm system is relatively bare after win-now trades.

The San Francisco Giants: Everyone knows about the Giants' success since 2010, but 2017-2020 resulted in four straight losing seasons for the club with a rebuild obviously needed with lots of aging players on the books. Farhan Zaidi was hired in November 2018 and the team soon saw the departures of Bumgarner, Samardzija, and others. In 2021, the Giants surprised everyone and won 107 games thanks to amazing performances from their older players - particularly 6.1 WAR from a 34 year old Brandon Crawford and 3.5 WAR from a 34 year old Buster Posey.

After a great year - Posey had retired, their top pitcher in Kevin Gausman has left, and their team is overwhelming comprised of players well over the age of 30.

So, is their rebuild over? They just had the best record in baseball. But, with such an old team, is the "rebuild" over?

 

 

 

I don't think it works to compare the Orioles' rebuilding path directly with what high-revenue teams like the Astros, Phillies, Giants and Cubs have done or are doing. Those teams are all in very large metropolitan areas with lots of season-ticket holders. They can spend more than the Orioles, with more confidence that attendance will recover quickly if the team's performance includes. (That difference becomes even larger true if you trying to assess/guess at what current ownership and his family would be willing to spend, as opposed to what they're able to spend. I think there's likely to be a very large difference.) 

Since 2019, the Orioles have seemed to be proceeding as if Baltimore were Houston, and the Orioles were the Astros. It's not, and they're not.

[interloper]

Not super-related, but in the last MLBTR chat by Anthony Franco, someone asked about a Means trade and Anthony kept mentioning Means' "shoulder surgery", which obviously does not exist. Yikes. Writers just don't even know about the Orioles these days it seems. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

When did the dork who started MLBTR all of a sudden have an opinion that mattered? That site used to be like a Drudge Report of baseball trade rumors…no original content, just compiling tidbits of info in one place. 
 

Tim Dierkes has as much insight into the Orioles payroll plans as the guy who made my breakfast burrito this morning. 

It's definitely all speculation on Dierkes part and just applying what the Astros did during their rebuild because Elias was a part of it.

It's not that I don't think the Orioles won't spend, but $130M to $160M by 2024 isn't happening without signing some of the younger players to early extensions and a serious dip into the free agent pool. 

The Orioles could very well sign their own players to extensions, add some free agents and still not get close to $130M payroll in 2024. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It's definitely all speculation on Dierkes part and just applying what the Astros did during their rebuild because Elias was a part of it.

It's not that I don't think the Orioles won't spend, but $130M to $160M by 2024 isn't happening without signing some of the younger players to early extensions and a serious dip into the free agent pool. 

The Orioles could very well sign their own players to extensions, add some free agents and still not get close to $130M payroll in 2024. 

Even when young players sign extensions, they don’t usually get paid more in their pre-FA years than they’re expected to make if they go year to year.   Maybe by a million or two in some cases.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

It's definitely all speculation on Dierkes part and just applying what the Astros did during their rebuild because Elias was a part of it.

It's not that I don't think the Orioles won't spend, but $130M to $160M by 2024 isn't happening without signing some of the younger players to early extensions and a serious dip into the free agent pool. 

The Orioles could very well sign their own players to extensions, add some free agents and still not get close to $130M payroll in 2024. 

Agreed. 
 

I hope that money, if spent, is allocated to locking up our young talent. We have yet to see if Elias can spend money. Whether that’s the Angelos brothers holding him back or him deciding not to plays a part, too. 
 

Or maybe he steps up and lands some massive, game changing FA deals. To me, it’s the biggest question about him as a GM. Setting up the system, getting into the Dominican, he’s been great. But we need to see if he can negotiate and spend on significant talent. 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

I'll consider the rebuild over when our first J2 signee sticks in the MLB lineup and there are international candidates right behind him ready to take his place.  

[jamalshw]

I hope he's right and I do think we ramp up spending significantly going into 2023 and more going into 2024, but the fact we are plugging holes for 2022 with Odor and Lyles is telling given we aren't even in the early investing stage for the roster. I would have loved to add one solid SP as a piece that could contribute in the next few seasons. I think we end up seeing those type of early investment spending next offseason which would still allow for the 2023-2024 offseason to be the one that we really ramp up, but I'm not sure the spending really ramps up that fast or that high. I think it's possible we get close to $100M by the 2024 season...but 30-60M over that seems completely unrealistic.