Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.

[Moose Milligan]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The rebuild will be over when the O's win their third consecutive  World Series.  Then it will be time to start the next rebuild.

It’s my hope that Elias can set this up so there’s a continued amount of talent coming through the system that’s sustainable and we don’t have to fret over a rebuild. 
 

And if we have to rebuild, it doesn’t take 4+ years. 

[jamalshw]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

The rebuild is over when the main focus of the season is wins and losses at the big league level and not on overall talent acquisition and development. Its when the moves we make are expected to help this year rather than a few down the road. Obviously, there's always a balancing act of present versus future, but right now all moves are with an eye on a few years from now.  Whether a rebuild is a success or failure has to do with what happens once you expect the team to compete. If they compete, make the postseason and sustain the success for several years, it was successful. If they flounder, barely make a wildcard spot one year (or not at all) and float around .500 for a few seasons before selling off again, it was a failure.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

The rebuild is over when the main focus of the season is wins and losses at the big league level and not on overall talent acquisition and development. Its when the moves we make are expected to help this year rather than a few down the road. Obviously, there's always a balancing act of present versus future, but right now all moves are with an eye on a few years from now.  Whether a rebuild is a success or failure has to do with what happens once you expect the team to compete. If they compete, make the postseason and sustain the success for several years, it was successful. If they flounder, barely make a wildcard spot one year (or not at all) and float around .500 for a few seasons before selling off again, it was a failure.  

No, the rebuild is over.  Just because Elias and ownership want to continue to lie to the fan base and make some up some bs about how they need to keep on this path doesn’t mean they are still rebuilding. 
 

That just makes the fan base gullible, that’s all.

[waroriole]

I don’t see how we could say the rebuild is over. We haven’t hit 60 wins since 2017. The tear down phase of the rebuild is over. But there’s a lot of building left to do. 

[Brooks The Great]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, the rebuild is over.  Just because Elias and ownership want to continue to lie to the fan base and make some up some bs about how they need to keep on this path doesn’t mean they are still rebuilding. 
 

That just makes the fan base gullible, that’s all.

No, the rebuild continues. We have yet another #1 pick in a good draft year, and we still haven't promoted any of our top prospects from the farm system. It's quite possible that more O's prospects will debut in 2023 than in 2022. Our international prospects are building up, but still far away.

It's ridiculous to say the rebuild is over, unless you're being sarcastic and I'm not picking up on it. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

I know we don't agree on much on here but here it goes...

I believe the "rebuild" has little to do with the team's prospects but the sale of the team. Everything contingent on when Peter passes sadly/morbidly. I don't wish death on anyone, even my worst enemy but I believe that is the reality to this team despite what the team says in press releases/interviews. 

Why would you be shopping Mullins (I love him but get that one a little bit at least) and Means (we haven't had a home grown starter since Mussina, really just a red flag)? Makes zero sense. You aren't building a winner in the AL East with a stud catcher alone. That is just fantasy land stuff. The quantity of our top prospects aren't impressive. We just have a deeper lower to mid system (that could potentially used in trades). Not a recipe for a championship. But hey, dream away folks.

You know my opinion on Elias. He isn't awful but highly overrated and not criticized enough. He really hasn't produced many nuggets or finds in his tenure. I think he would easily leave here to use his experience for a higher profile job but don't know what he was told/promised. People around him are tight lipped. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

When did the dork who started MLBTR all of a sudden have an opinion that mattered? That site used to be like a Drudge Report of baseball trade rumors…no original content, just compiling tidbits of info in one place. 
 

Tim Dierkes has as much insight into the Orioles payroll plans as the guy who made my breakfast burrito this morning. 

"premium" chat LOL

Does he have an onlyfans account too? SMH

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

No, the rebuild continues. We have yet another #1 pick in a good draft year, and we still haven't promoted any of our top prospects from the farm system. It's quite possible that more O's prospects will debut in 2023 than in 2022. Our international prospects are building up, but still far away.

It's ridiculous to say the rebuild is over, unless you're being sarcastic and I'm not picking up on it. 

No, the idea of rebuilding is to tear down your team, free yourself of long term salary commitments and build up your organization.

The Orioles have done all of that.  There is nothing left to tear down.   The actual rebuild is done.  The components that make up a rebuild are passed them.
 

 

 

[MarCakes21]

Just curious, why not target someone this year like Trevor Story.  We might have to overpay in both years and cost, but he seems like a guy who has had relatively stable numbers and strong defense and won't be had at a Correa/Seager type cost.  MLBTR predicts 6/$126.  Even if we went 7/$150, we bump our payroll in the right direction, hedge our bets with Henderson/Mayo/Westburg hitting, even 2 of 3, and if not can use them as trade bait.  And then we also have Story for that elusive 6-7 year window of when our core is around through the cheap years.

[waroriole]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, the idea of rebuilding is to tear down your team, free yourself of long term salary commitments and build up your organization.

The Orioles have done all of that.  There is nothing left to tear down.   The actual rebuild is done.  The components that make up a rebuild are passed them.
 

 

 

I think it’s semantics, but rebuild is not only tearing down the existing structure. It also includes building it back up. If we can’t get out of last place, it’s hard to say we’ve completed the rebuild. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, waroriole said:

I think it’s semantics, but rebuild is not only tearing down the existing structure. It also includes building it back up. If we can’t get out of last place, it’s hard to say we’ve completed the rebuild. 

No, it means the rebuild failed.  Big difference.

The structure of the organization has been built back up.

[waroriole]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

No, it means the rebuild failed.  Big difference.

The structure of the organization has been built back up.

The structure might be built, but it doesn’t mean everything is ready to compete. How has the rebuild failed? 

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think it’s semantics, but rebuild is not only tearing down the existing structure. It also includes building it back up. If we can’t get out of last place, it’s hard to say we’ve completed the rebuild. 

Agreed it is just semantics at this point. Problem with the building analogy is that you know when it's done. A MLB team is different. The building never ends, especially in the model that we are transitioning into. We could win the WS and still keep adding pieces and improving. I would say at least the foundation has been laid. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

The structure might be built, but it doesn’t mean everything is ready to compete. How has the rebuild failed? 

I didn’t say it has failed.

You said if they can’t get out of last place, it’s hard to say the rebuild is complete.

That’s not true.  They could make terrible financial decisions, guys don’t develop or get hurt, etc…

The rebuild isn’t complete only when you start winning.  This is the fallacy of rebuilding.  People think it means you automatically start winning.  That’s not true.

The rebuild is complete when you have built a foundation of talent, have gotten rid of payroll obligations and put yourself in position to compete/contend because of your existing talent.

The Os have done that.  They have a stable of players that any organization can build off of and build a contending team.  They have to build a winner now.  But that’s not rebuilding.

If that’s the case, a lot of the league is rebuilding.  They now have to show they can develop at this level and make the proper moves to contend.  But the foundation for them to do that is complete and that is what rebuilding is.

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t say it has failed.

You said if they can’t get out of last place, it’s hard to say the rebuild is complete.

That’s not true.  They could make terrible financial decisions, guys don’t develop or get hurt, etc…

The rebuild isn’t complete only when you start winning.  This is the fallacy of rebuilding.  People think it means you automatically start winning.  That’s not true.

The rebuild is complete when you have built a foundation of talent, have gotten rid of payroll obligations and put yourself in position to compete/contend because of your existing talent.

The Os have done that.  They have a stable of players that any organization can build off of and build a contending team.  They have to build a winner now.  But that’s not rebuilding.

If that’s the case, a lot of the league is rebuilding.  They now have to show they can develop at this level and make the proper moves to contend.  But the foundation for them to do that is complete and that is what rebuilding is.

Ok point taken about the rebuild failing if teams are still in last place. I think they’re still rebuilding as none of that talent has made its way to Baltimore yet. 22 should be the year that the rebuild is complete, since Adley and Grayson will debut. At that point, it’s about adding additional pieces to help us contend. So, if we’re still in last place in 23, and we’re not adding that talent, it’s fair to say the rebuild failed and Elias should be fired.