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Tim Dierkes (MLBTR) thinks Orioles payroll probably $130-160 million by '24.


waynebug

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

What do we consider the end of the rebuild?   I’d say in 2023 I expect the team to be close to .500, perhaps over.   I expect them to be 10+ wins better than the year before both in 2022 and 2023.   So let’s say they win 63 in 2022, 75 in 2023 (so, short of my goal, though significantly improved.)  Is the rebuild over?   When did it end?   Does Elias keep his job in that scenario?

What makes you think Mike Elias will even be with the O's in 2024?   He was hired on Nov, 16th 2018.   We don't know the term but I have seen  guesses of 5 years.  So Nov 2023 his contract could be up.  He completed the tear down.  Put the analytics in place and the minors league development system. Built the international scouting development. Now has the #1 or #2 minor league system.  His prospects will be in the majors in 2022, 2023 and after.  Does he stay to see it through?

Andrew Friedman was the young successful GM of the Tampa Bat Devil Rays.   But the Big Money  Dodgers came knocking and signed him to a 5 year, 35m contract to be president of baseball operations. 

Theo Epstein was the GM for the Red Sox.  But the Cubs signed him to a  5 year, 18.5m contract to be their President.

To me Elias looks like he is on that track if things fall in place for him.   Will in be the fall of 2023 or 2024 or later I don't know but some big money teams will probably come knocking at some point.

There is no one I am aware of to take his place.  In the next year it would probably be wise for the O's to add an assistant GM to work under him.

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12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What makes you think Mike Elias will even be with the O's in 2024?   He was hired on Nov, 16th 2018.   We don't know the term but I have seen  guesses of 5 years.  So Nov 2023 his contract could be up.  He completed the tear down.  Put the analytics in place and the minors league development system. Built the international scouting development. Now has the #1 or #2 minor league system.  His prospects will be in the majors in 2022, 2023 and after.  Does he stay to see it through?

Andrew Friedman was the young successful GM of the Tampa Bat Devil Rays.   But the Big Money  Dodgers came knocking and signed him to a 5 year, 35m contract to be president of baseball operations. 

Theo Epstein was the GM for the Red Sox.  But the Cubs signed him to a  5 year, 18.5m contract to be their President.

To me Elias looks like he is on that track if things fall in place for him.   Will in be the fall of 2023 or 2024 or later I don't know but some big money teams will probably come knocking at some point.

There is no one I am aware of to take his place.  In the next year it would probably be wise for the O's to add an assistant GM to work under him.

Yea he's totes on track to be hired away.  If any of those larger market teams still want to be finishing last in year three of a rebuild the O's are going to have a hard time keeping him.

I know the fanbases for those large market clubs love 5+ years of losing before the potential payoff.

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea he's totes on track to be hired away.  If any of those larger market teams still want to be finishing last in year three of a rebuild the O's are going to have a hard time keeping him.

I know the fanbases for those large market clubs love 5+ years of losing before the potential payoff.

Given a big market and more resources he would probably act differently.   Friedman does not manage the Dodgers the same way he did the Devil Rays.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

No, the idea of rebuilding is to tear down your team, free yourself of long term salary commitments and build up your organization.

The Orioles have done all of that.  There is nothing left to tear down.   The actual rebuild is done.  The components that make up a rebuild are passed them.
 

 

 

I don't disagree with this.  I think people are just saying they're ready for the "build."  Getting AR, G-Rod, Hall and others up, bringing in difference making free agents, etc.  I think people will say the rebuild is over when we're winning 90+ games.

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Just now, wildcard said:

Given a big market and more resources he would probably act differently.   Friedman does not manage the Dodgers the same way he did the Devil Rays.

He hasn't even come close to proving he can win using the one trick he learned at his last job. 

He's not in danger of being poached by a big market club.

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Given a big market and more resources he would probably act differently.   Friedman does not manage the Dodgers the same way he did the Devil Rays.

Yeah, but he sort of does.  The what separates the Dodgers is that they're able to spend to keep their homegrown talent, and cheaply acquired talent (Turner) when in Tampa he couldn't have done so.

The Dodgers are pretty much a model run franchise due to the fact that they're able to spend to keep a guy like Kershaw in the mix for the bulk of his career.

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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't disagree with this.  I think people are just saying they're ready for the "build."  Getting AR, G-Rod, Hall and others up, bringing in difference making free agents, etc.  I think people will say the rebuild is over when we're winning 90+ games.

I’m sure they will…because people will actually believe that rebuilding is what caused them to win those 90+ games…when in fact, that’s bs. 
 

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