Should the O's be farther along offensively in their rebuild?

[interloper]

I wanted to break this question out from the Fangraphs ZiPS thread by @Just Regular . Here are a couple quotes I found interesting from the article (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projection-baltimore-orioles/). 

Quote

 For a team rebuilding since mid-2018, the collection of offensive talent in the majors and high minors just isn’t all that impressive. The O’s have thrown a lot at the wall, but they have mostly ended up, over the last three years, with a lot of below-average-but-above-replacement hitters. 

Quote

Looking at the projections for the lineup, where is the likely source of upside outside of Rutschman and Mullins? There are simply a lot of players already in what should be their prime years who you hope to have a league-average season. 

Quote

It just feels like the O’s should be farther along right now.

That final quote came within the context of the same offense-focused section of the previous two quotes, to be clear.

I don't know if I fully agree with the statement he arrives at that it feels like the O's should be farther along. Factually, everything he says is correct. The homegrown offensive guys, aside from Mullins, have been largely just ok or a bit worse. Hays had a nice season that we hope he can build on. Mountcastle was good, but not exactly a game-changer offensively. Then other guys like Stewart, McKenna, etc have been essentially replacement level.

On the prospect side, he doesn't mention Cowser, Stowers, or Mayo, but seems to focus on Adley, Gunnar, and Westburg. 

I think having those 6 guys - and not even including Kjerstad here - is a pretty solid group after essentially 3 years of rebuilding. Duquette's firesale trades didn't net us much of anything offensively (at least part of the reason because the firesale started a year too late), so the rebuild has been largely reliant on the draft and whatever Elias has found to trade, though those trades have brought back mostly pitching.

So in that regard, I think offensively we look okay and in comparison to 2018 we're of course miles ahead. There's certainly room to be a bit better from an offensive upside standpoint in the high minors and definitely on the ML team, but I think we'll really have a much better idea this upcoming season when some of these guys are hitting AA and AAA. 

What do you think? 

[Aristotelian]

I also was surprised by that quote and it made me want to think about it. C is going to be a massive comparative advantage over other teams, we are loaded with OF prospects plus Mullins, and we have multiple options in the system at most of the IF positions. Aside from Diaz, most of the guys have progressed at normal pace (plus or minus service time considerations). So I don't think we are behind in that sense. I think we would all like to be a bit further along at the MLB level but we only had 30 games to work with to evaluate talent in 2020. It maybe would have been nice to hit on a few more waiver pickups although I can't say who those would be aside from Urias and Mateo. 

By far my bigger concern is pitching. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I also was surprised by that quote and it made me want to think about it. C is going to be a massive comparative advantage over other teams, we are loaded with OF prospects plus Mullins, and we have multiple options in the system at most of the IF positions. Aside from Diaz, most of the guys have progressed at normal pace (plus or minus service time considerations). So I don't think we are behind in that sense. I think we would all like to be a bit further along at the MLB level but we only had 30 games to work with to evaluate talent in 2020. It maybe would have been nice to hit on a few more waiver pickups although I can't say who those would be aside from Urias and Mateo. 

By far my bigger concern is pitching. 

By no means am I suggesting they were/are sure things but folks like Grenier, Hall and Hernaiz aren't developing as we would like. 

I wouldn't say the O's are beating the averages right now with their prospects.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

I wanted to break this question out from the Fangraphs ZiPS thread by @Just Regular . Here are a couple quotes I found interesting from the article (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projection-baltimore-orioles/). 

That final quote came within the context of the same offense-focused section of the previous two quotes, to be clear.

I don't know if I fully agree with the statement he arrives at that it feels like the O's should be farther along. Factually, everything he says is correct. The homegrown offensive guys, aside from Mullins, have been largely just ok or a bit worse. Hays had a nice season that we hope he can build on. Mountcastle was good, but not exactly a game-changer offensively. Then other guys like Stewart, McKenna, etc have been essentially replacement level.

On the prospect side, he doesn't mention Cowser, Stowers, or Mayo, but seems to focus on Adley, Gunnar, and Westburg. 

I think having those 6 guys - and not even including Kjerstad here - is a pretty solid group after essentially 3 years of rebuilding. Duquette's firesale trades didn't net us much of anything offensively (at least part of the reason because the firesale started a year too late), so the rebuild has been largely reliant on the draft and whatever Elias has found to trade, though those trades have brought back mostly pitching.

So in that regard, I think offensively we look okay and in comparison to 2018 we're of course miles ahead. There's certainly room to be a bit better from an offensive upside standpoint in the high minors and definitely on the ML team, but I think we'll really have a much better idea this upcoming season when some of these guys are hitting AA and AAA. 

What do you think? 

I think the O's are pretty offensive.

Elias has had two development years and three drafts.  Most of his players have not played a game in the majors yet.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

I also was surprised by that quote and it made me want to think about it. C is going to be a massive comparative advantage over other teams, we are loaded with OF prospects plus Mullins, and we have multiple options in the system at most of the IF positions. Aside from Diaz, most of the guys have progressed at normal pace (plus or minus service time considerations). So I don't think we are behind in that sense. I think we would all like to be a bit further along at the MLB level but we only had 30 games to work with to evaluate talent in 2020. It maybe would have been nice to hit on a few more waiver pickups although I can't say who those would be aside from Urias and Mateo. 

By far my bigger concern is pitching. 

Agreed on all that. I think if we were farther along offensively, it would be because guys like Diaz and Bannon worked out, and we had anybody ready to reach the high minors from the international side of things. Which, to Dan's credit, he does mention the lack of little if any international development prior to Elias. But if he understands that, then I think it's clear why they don't appear farther along than they are. 

Pitching is another story lol. 

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

By no means am I suggesting they were/are sure things but folks like Grenier, Hall and Hernaiz aren't developing as we would like. 

I wouldn't say the O's are beating the averages right now with their prospects.

Yeah, this is I think one of the issues - the rebuild seems a little slow because it's been so draft-reliant. There was no MacPhail trade. There could be one with Means, though, and that's why it's so interesting because Elias will have to determine if he needs that extra jolt of ML-ready talent infusion via trade this late in the rebuild, or if the drafts have been enough. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah, this is I think one of the issues - the rebuild seems a little slow because it's been so draft-reliant. There was no MacPhail trade. There could be one with Means, though, and that's why it's so interesting because Elias will have to determine if his rebuild needs that extra jolt of ML-ready talent infusion via trade this late in the rebuild, or if the drafts have been enough. 

I think Bundy was a missed opportunity.

[Ohfan67]

Kjerstad's medical condition hurts (no pun intended). The second overall pick of the draft hasn't played a MiL game yet. If he had developed to date along an optimistic path then the MiL offense may not look so offensive. 

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Bundy was a missed opportunity.

I know you do.  I guess the question is, do you think Elias could have gotten some decent offensive pieces in that trade? At the time I think it felt smart to focus on pitchers, but I know you don't love the pitchers he got either.

It reallllly would have helped the rebuild a bit if Bundy had put together a better season. That was the time to trade him, but he didn't cooperate with a better season. 

[SteveA]

When you ask a question with the word "farther" in it, you have to have a "than".

What is our basis for comparison?

We would be farther along if we had dumped assets earlier and didn't make the horrendously ill fated decision to try to contend in 2018.   In that context, yeah, absolutely we should be farther along.

But if you take 2018 as a given, how could we be much "farther along" offensively right now?   Elias has pretty much exclusively drafted position players, and as others have pointed out, as a whole they are making reasonable progress in our system.   There are failures and successes but they mostly balance out.   So to be farther along we would have had to make an impact free agent signing or trade for a hitter who is more than just a stopgap and who will actually be a piece in our contending years.   Is that realistic?  Given our system, I think our acquisitions will likely be more pitching related.    Even Sports Guy, the most ardent proponent of the notion that we start getting long term pieces now even though we aren't "ready" to contend, has mostly suggested pitchers to fill that bill.  

Short of signing one of the big name free agent shortstops this year, I don't see too many things Elias could have done the past few years to have us better situated offensively moving forward.   Traded Santander or Mancini?   Sure, but honestly if we had I think getting pitching back would have been more a priority.

Maybe if he hadn't let Yaz get away... maybe that's what he means!

[interloper]

8 minutes ago, SteveA said:

 

Maybe if he hadn't let Yaz get away... maybe that's what he means!

It always comes back to Yaz in the end! 

Regarding the rest of your post, completely agree. Maybe he's saying one of the prospects should have revealed themselves as an offensive standout, like beyond their projection. Some lesser prospect that suddenly pops, etc. 

[Moose Milligan]

I didn't read the article, but the fact that he ignores some of the lower level minor leaguers here, as noted by @interlopermakes the quoted segments a little...disingenuous?  Half assed?  I dunno.  I don't think they're telling the whole story and looking at the whole picture.  And even as good as fangraphs is, it's still a national publication with writers that can't possibly look at the whole story for every ML team.

I hate making the 2020 Covid excuse but we can't pretend that hasn't hindered development here.  It did for everyone, I'm not suggesting that the Orioles are alone in being impacted.  But if we had a whole 2020 season, I think AR would have probably been in Baltimore this past summer.  Maybe G-Rod, too?  At that point this rebuild would look different than it does now.  

We've got the #1 overall prospect in the game as well as the #1 pitching prospect in the game.  I will say I think we need more top flight arms in the system but we should be pretty loaded from an offense perspective with Mayo, Gunnar, Stowers, Cowser, Kjerstad, etc.  And we've got the #1 pick next summer again.  

We all wish it was farther along than where it is now...and I hate the whole "this is the year" notion where...well, this is the year.  But I do believe 2022 will be what 2021 should have been if Covid hadn't wrecked havoc on the 2020 season.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

It always comes back to Yaz in the end! 

Regarding the rest of your post, completely agree. Maybe he's saying one of the prospects should have revealed themselves as an offensive standout, like beyond their projection. Some lesser prospect that suddenly pops, etc. 

Maybe that guy last year was Mullins.  No longer a prospect by the strict terms of the definition but still a guy who blossomed.  I mean, that's a lesser prospect that suddenly popped, it just took him awhile to get there.  That shouldn't really be discounted.  

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Bundy was a missed opportunity.

We have no reason to believe there were or could have been better offers. Bundy lost 30 games the previous two seasons. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I didn't read the article, but the fact that he ignores some of the lower level minor leaguers here, as noted by @interlopermakes the quoted segments a little...disingenuous?  Half assed?  I dunno.  I don't think they're telling the whole story and looking at the whole picture.  And even as good as fangraphs is, it's still a national publication with writers that can't possibly look at the whole story for every ML team.

Yeah, but Szymborski grew up as an Orioles fan and presumably follows them more closely than most other teams.   He’s even posted here once.  (Member since 2009.)