Should we consider Hosmer in a Salary dump trade?

[oriole]

42 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

But why would he want to stay where he's clearly not wanted?  

Winning team? He probably owns a house in the area and wouldn’t want to uproot everything to move if he has a choice? The Orioles don’t actually want him, they want whatever prospect tags along with him? I dunno, it’s all speculation of course but there seem to be plenty of reasons why Hosmer wouldn’t want to come to a team like the O’s.

[LookinUp]

I'd need to see how the numbers work to even consider it.

The laziest view is we'd be buying a prospect for $60 million. That's a non-starter for the Orioles almost no matter who the prospect(s) is.

More nuanced includes some value received from Hosmer (let's say he's worth $30 million over 4 years). So now we're buying a prospect for $30 million. Still a no-go.

Then there's the cost of the prospect. I'm guessing it's small, but let's say they're in the majors some. Add $5 million to the cost.

You could justify this mathematically with the right mix of players, but I'd strongly doubt ownership allows it and I'd likewise strongly doubt that, if the Padres were so willing to dump prospects that are actually worth making this deal, the O's would be offering the best deal.

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

Winning team? He probably owns a house in the area and wouldn’t want to uproot everything to move if he has a choice? The Orioles don’t actually want him, they want whatever prospect tags along with him? I dunno, it’s all speculation of course but there seem to be plenty of reasons why Hosmer wouldn’t want to come to a team like the O’s.

Agreed - but people are acting like it's impossible to change his po$ition - which seems a bit over-doing the negativity, imo.  Obviously, no trade we suggest here has much chance of happening, but they can be interesting exercises.     

[sevastras]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Is it an upgrade in the outfield?

Is it much of a bullpen upgrade?

Is Mancini a difference maker in 2022?

 

1. Yes, they are losing Pham and he was anemic the second half

2. Yes, Sulser would be a useful piece for them

3. No, however he is an upgrade over Hosmer

It isnt realistic to get both Abrams and Hassell for this package but it would definitely get you Hassell.  Hassell is > than 1 year of Mancini and the remaining of Santander and Sulser and probably worth taking on the contract of Hosmer.  

There is no reason not to do a 3 team trade to get Abrams or Hassell because both are VERY good prospects.  If you could pick up Abrams, you could be more comfortable trading Mullins for some nice pieces elsewhere.  Abrams could reach the majors by 2023 and I think will have a better career than Mullins.

[Philip]

32 minutes ago, sevastras said:

You are taking on a bad contract and they are upgrading OF, 1B and bullpen, all of which they need.  

The players you offer would get only laughter in response, so they wouldn't do it. An old bullpen guy with 93 career innings has a little value but not much. Mancini is older, increasingly expensive and limited. Santander has spent too much time being injured and when he returned last season he wasn’t very good. Also minimal value at this time. Preller isn’t a good GM but he wouldn’t give much for those guys.

Without considering what we would give, if we agreed to take on 60 million of obligation, what would Preller give us?
It wouldn’t be worthwhile, UNLESS Elias is an excellent negotiator and can take advantage of Preller, and that skill hasn’t been demonstrated yet.

 

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, sevastras said:

1. Yes, they are losing Pham and he was anemic the second half

2. Yes, Sulser would be a useful piece for them

3. No, however he is an upgrade over Hosmer

It isnt realistic to get both Abrams and Hassell for this package but it would definitely get you Hassell.  Hassell is > than 1 year of Mancini and the remaining of Santander and Sulser and probably worth taking on the contract of Hosmer.  

There is no reason not to do a 3 team trade to get Abrams or Hassell because both are VERY good prospects.  If you could pick up Abrams, you could be more comfortable trading Mullins for some nice pieces elsewhere.  Abrams could reach the majors by 2023 and I think will have a better career than Mullins.

Pham put up a 1.4 rWAR season last year, Santander put up .2.  Pham has a career OPS+ of 120, Santander is at 97.  

Santander is not a clear upgrade and that's assuming they roll with Pham in 2022.

 

[interloper]

Too many years left for me to get behind this. The level of prospect we'd get I don't think is worth the amount of dead money we'd be saddled with. Especially when we're right about to enter the time period when we'd be wanting to spend some money. No sense in having Hosmer eat any of that money up. 

[Ruzious]

It's not impossible that Hosmer actually plays up to his salary after 2022 - when he's getting paid $13 mil a year.  It's not like he's Chris Davis.  He had a 104 OPS+ last season (the same as Mancini) and 132 in the 38 games he played in 2020.  

[Frobby]

I know this website has been denigrated by some, but baseballtradevalues.com values Hosmer at -$50.7 mm, Abrams at +$68.3 mm, Gore at $13.9 mm.   So, by their reckoning, you wouldn’t take the Hosmer contract to buy Gore, but you would do it to buy Abrams.    
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/529/

Obviously this isn’t happening, but it’s interesting to contemplate.   

[interloper]

20 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

It's not impossible that Hosmer actually plays up to his salary after 2022 - when he's getting paid $13 mil a year.  It's not like he's Chris Davis.  He had a 104 OPS+ last season (the same as Mancini) and 132 in the 38 games he played in 2020.  

True but he's also an unlikeable dingleberry. 

[ThomasTomasz]

On 12/13/2021 at 5:02 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

The Padres are trying to dump Eric Hosmer and his salary. He’s owed,

2022: 21 million Age 32

2023: 13 million Age 33

2024: 13 million Age 34

2025: 13 million Age 35

Here’s an MLBTR article linking the same trade idea to the Cubs,

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/cubs-padres-discussed-eric-hosmer-trade-last-summer.html

The Cubs are on his no trade list.  Are we?  He’s owed 4/60 going forward.

The Pads were willing to give up a top prospect to get rid of him. Obviously, the first thought that jumps into mind is Hosmer and LH SP Mackenzie Gore for ??? 
 

 

I think Hosmer could inject some leadership into the clubhouse, but we would then get stuck with the same situation here in a couple years. Gore also has seen his prospect star dim drastically. The return would have to be either Hassell or Abrams. They would probably not get much in return from us if it’s a strict dump. 

[Roll Tide]

15 hours ago, Philip said:

The players you offer would get only laughter in response, so they wouldn't do it. An old bullpen guy with 93 career innings has a little value but not much. Mancini is older, increasingly expensive and limited. Santander has spent too much time being injured and when he returned last season he wasn’t very good. Also minimal value at this time. Preller isn’t a good GM but he wouldn’t give much for those guys.

Without considering what we would give, if we agreed to take on 60 million of obligation, what would Preller give us?
It wouldn’t be worthwhile, UNLESS Elias is an excellent negotiator and can take advantage of Preller, and that skill hasn’t been demonstrated yet.

 

So …Do they really want to dump Hosmer. If what you get from their GM wouldn’t be worthwhile then nobody is doing it. It would take a couple of their rated prospects to get someone to eat the payroll. The only thing that would hurt you value wise is if Mancini, Santander, and or Sulser actually had negative value. Im sure Mancini’s bat would be valued by somebody. 

[sportsfan8703]

Is Hosmer still a “good” defender at 1B?  I heard someone mention earlier that he was a bad clubhouse guy… what’s that about?