What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Cedric Mullins?

[Frobby]

Thought I’d start a daily poll covering the main Orioles hitters.   Starting will Mullins today.   He had an .878 OPS in his breakout 2021 season, raising his career OPS to .784 in the process.   Where do you think he lands in 2022?

[waroriole]

I think his breakout was legit and he’ll continue hitting at that level this year, maybe even slight improvement. 

[Sports Guy]

800ish..hopefully doing it in Miami.

[Pickles]

If I was setting an over-under for Mullins I'd set it at 800 so I went with the 780-819 option.

Though I think there's an argument to be made that that is perhaps pessimistic.  

[wildcard]

OPS about like last year.  Not 30/30 but another very good year.

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

800ish..hopefully doing it in Miami.

Sometimes I wish there was an eye roll upvote

[OriolesMagic83]

Slight drop off, but I still think he hits 25 HR and has a .350ish OBP.  Well over .800 OPS, fingers crossed.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I think Mullins will be good again, but we'll see a slight drop off to an 800 .OPS perhaps a bit higher than that. If we see an .878 OPS again from Mullins it puts him in superstar territory. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

~.825 OPS

Cools off a little bit from 2021 overall (.878). Fewer homers, but slightly offset by more doubles and triples due in part to the LF adjustments combined with his speed.

Something like .275 / .345 / .480 with ~20 HR and close to ~30 steals again.

Good defense (range driven) and the offensive profile above puts him at about a ~4+ WAR player in 2022.

[Moose Milligan]

I said .820-.859 but IMO it'll be closer to the lower end of that range.

Tony's posted a few times that the peripherals say that his 2021 season was legit so there's reason to think he can do it again.

He did crater in the last two weeks IIRC but with the development of the Crohn's disease news, its understandable as to why.

 

12 hours ago, waroriole said:

Sometimes I wish there was an eye roll upvote

 

Or a beating of a dead horse one?  Me too.

[oriole]

Mullins is one of my favorites and I hope he succeeds. But until I see him play like this for more than one season I don’t see why we should expect it to continue. 

[btdart20]

Depends on which ball the MLB uses?!  2021 first half OPS was .921.  Second half was .822.

He's tough because we really only have 1 year of facing both righty/lefty as a left-handed hitter.  (Makes me wonder if more players should drop switch-hitting...)  As a 40+% pull hitter (and all of his HR to the right side), no impact by the LF wall changes.

2021 -

SLG - .518 and xSLG - .448

BA - .291 and xBA - .272

BB% - up to 8.7 (from 5.2) 

His EV, Hardhit% is about league average.  Better than average K%.  Good speed, the lefty bat, and OPACY RF wall is a good recipe for doubles/triples.  He's 27.

Feels like some downside from .878.  I think it'll be around .820ish with a chance for more.

[Frobby]

Mullins finished with a .721 OPS, lower than any of the 46 guesses in the poll.   Even considering that the league OPS was down 30 points, guesses were way high on him.  Only 2 people had him below .780.   But it still feels like he had a pretty decent season, at 3.8 rWAR.

[DrungoHazewood]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins finished with a .721 OPS, lower than any of the 46 guesses in the poll.   Even considering that the league OPS was down 30 points, guesses were way high on him.  Only 2 people had him below .780.   But it still feels like he had a pretty decent season, at 3.8 rWAR.

3.8 rWAR is in the 77th percentile of Major League non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs.  An average player in full-time play is about a 2 WAR.  Yea, pretty decent.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

3.8 rWAR is in the 77th percentile of Major League non-pitchers with at least 350 PAs.  An average player in full-time play is about a 2 WAR.  Yea, pretty decent.

A lot of value in his defense.   Mullins actually had the biggest gap between his median OH projection (.826) and his actual (.721).   Yet, I sense most fans were more disappointed by Mountcastle (.833/.729) and Hays (.790/.719).   I think it’s because Mullins played such good defense, even though his offense fell off.