What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Ryan Mountcastle?

[Frobby]

Ryan Mountcastle is today’s subject.  Last year he had a hot and cold season and landed at .796 OPS.   Throwing in his impressive 2020 debut, his career OPS stands at .812.    Does the arrow point up for 2022, or will the new dimensions at OPACY send his OPS in the other direction?

[Sports Guy]

I’m going to be conservative on him and say around 800.  He should be able to get more doubles with the new dimensions but will how will it effect his homers?  
 

With that unknown and the poorish OBP, I’m going to say he is in the 790-810 range.   

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think the wall move is going to hurt his overall numbers very much.  He only would have lost 2-3 HR last year and he moves well enough that the defenders having to cover more territory out there might increase his doubles and maybe even allow for a triple or two.

Obviously he needs to avoid those deep funks that plagued him last season, he dug himself a huge hole early last year.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the wall move is going to hurt his overall numbers very much.  He only would have lost 2-3 HR last year and he moves well enough that the defenders having to cover more territory out there might increase his doubles and maybe even allow for a triple or two.

Obviously he needs to avoid those deep funks that plagued him last season, he dug himself a huge hole early last year.

If I had to guess, I don’t think it effects him much either.  But when answering this question and with the options given, 5-15 points could be enough to keep him in one category vs another.

 

[Pickles]

I went with 810-840.  I expect to see more growth and consistency this year.  You could see his plate discipline improve last year as the season progressed.

I was very impressed with his bat speed and plate coverage last year.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think the wall move is going to hurt his overall numbers very much.  He only would have lost 2-3 HR last year and he moves well enough that the defenders having to cover more territory out there might increase his doubles and maybe even allow for a triple or two.

Obviously he needs to avoid those deep funks that plagued him last season, he dug himself a huge hole early last year.

The median number of triples the Orioles have hit at OPACY is 8.  High of 19 in 1992, low of 3 in 2020 (4 in a couple other years).   But it's skewed old - all but one of the 10+ triple seasons happened prior to 2010, for some reason.

From the Statcast data it looks like roughly 1/7th of triples (league-wide) were hit to LF.  Which is actually quite a bit higher than I expected. Here's the only 2021 triple hit to LF at OPACY, and that was really a double that Austin Hayes played into a triple.  A few years ago Mancini hit one that Dwight Smith Jr (surprise) misplayed.   Since 2008 there have been about 1.5 triples per season hit to LF at OPACY.  Looking at those Statcast videos essentially every single LF triple at Camden Yards involves the LFer either messing up, or being super aggressive and missing the ball.  Not a single one I saw that was just a straight up hit to the wall, runner goes to third.

My guess is that the Orioles will hit eight or nine triples at home this year if they play a full schedule.  Mountcastle will gain 0.15 expected triples.  At least this year there's a chance for a LF triple at home that doesn't involve the LFer screwing up and the official scorer taking pity.

[btdart20]

2020 was inflated with a high Babip and a BB/K ratio much better than his minor league track record.  

Mounty definitely enjoyed hitting at OPACY in 2021 (but who doesn't?).  .871 OPS at home vs. .713 OPS on the road.  He had two really strong months (June - 1.016 OPS and August - 1.183 OPS).  The highest OPS for the other months was .748.  His second half was better from a plate discipline perspective.  20 BB in 328 PA in the first half vs. 21 BB in 258 PA in the second half.  He also traded doubles for HR in the second half (but skimming through the game log seems to be more away games at hitter's parks).  

Barrel% almost doubled to 11.8% compared to 6.1% in 2020.  EV, LA, HardHit% are all league average or better.  Increased K% and 9% increase in Pull% indicates a shift in approach.  The changeup got him more in 2021, so he's probably keying in on FBs for power.  

He'll be 25.  If he can take a step forward lowering his chase rate, then he could be a big contributor.  I think he can improve on last year's numbers.

I'll go with the .810-.839 range with a chance for more.  Of the 2021 roster, I think Mounty's bat has the most upside.

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

2020 was inflated with a high Babip and a BB/K ratio much better than his minor league track record.  

Mounty definitely enjoyed hitting at OPACY in 2021 (but who doesn't?).  .871 OPS at home vs. .713 OPS on the road.  He had two really strong months (June - 1.016 OPS and August - 1.183 OPS).  The highest OPS for the other months was .748.  His second half was better from a plate discipline perspective.  20 BB in 328 PA in the first half vs. 21 BB in 258 PA in the second half.  He also traded doubles for HR in the second half (but skimming through the game log seems to be more away games at hitter's parks).  

Barrel% almost doubled to 11.8% compared to 6.1% in 2020.  EV, LA, HardHit% are all league average or better.  Increased K% and 9% increase in Pull% indicates a shift in approach.  The changeup got him more in 2021, so he's probably keying in on FBs for power.  

He'll be 25.  If he can take a step forward lowering his chase rate, then he could be a big contributor.  I think he can improve on last year's numbers.

I'll go with the .810-.839 range with a chance for more.  Of the 2021 roster, I think Mounty's bat has the most upside.

The bolded is an interesting thought experiment but I do believe you're right.

[Aristotelian]

I also went with .810+. No reason to think he isn't capable of some marginal improvement but with his plate approach being what it is I don't see him ever going for .900/1.000 type numbers. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I also went with .810+. No reason to think he isn't capable of some marginal improvement but with his plate approach being what it is I don't see him ever going for .900/1.000 type numbers. 

I actually think he's likely to have an outlier season at that level. 

It won't be a level he can maintain. 

[btdart20]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I actually think he's likely to have an outlier season at that level. 

It won't be a level he can maintain. 

That's true of anyone.  Put your vote in the pole.

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Ryan Mountcastle is today’s subject.  

Frobby - you voting too?

[Just Regular]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I actually think he's likely to have an outlier season at that level. 

It won't be a level he can maintain. 

I agree with this.   A fun parlor game as the offenses get good and he just plops down as the free-swinging RBI guy with a bunch of guys who control the strike zone and get out on the pond for him is guessing an Over/Under for his career high RBI total.   He's going to be the best fantasy Oriole who is the actual real-life 6th best guy in the lineup.

Tejada rode 76 extra base hits to 150 RBI's in 2004; if things go like Elias hopes I could see Mountcastle's hottest year pushing that ballpark.   It probably invoives hitting cleanup all year behind the three best out of the Mullins, Cowser, Adley, Termarr foursome, hypothetically speaking.

Assuming he can hold off Mayo, Santander, Kjerstad whoever for the plum RBI job.

I went with the .810-.839 for the poll - hopeful his growth as a hitter will outrun the tougher park on balance.

[Moose Milligan]

.810+.  

Here's hoping he's not the slow starter type.  He was brutal to watch in the early going last year.

[NCRaven]

I have Ryan in the .810+ range as well.  I'm on record as believing the young man will continue to develop and become a real force at the plate and a solid defender at 1B (not a high bar, I know).  I've said it before and I know I'll say it again, Ryan Mountcastle is a BEAST.

[wildcard]

Mountcastle plays 2022 at age 25.  He is established in the majors with a good rookie year.   I think he puts up an 860 OPS.  I think his OBP increases into the 340 range.    I look at his progression through the high minors and the majors and see a guy ready to take off.  He is a major piece of the O's future.