Nats Soto rejects massive extension offer

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ben Clemens wrote some recent articles in which he calculated Arb salaries as a function of fWAR.  Soto was worth 6.6 fWAR last year.  At the rates calculated by Clemens, if his performance stayed steady, Soto would make something like $12.8 mm, 18.1 mm and $27.7 mm the next 3 years.   

Obviously he will earn more than $350 mm if his performance stays steady and he remains healthy between now and free agency.   But, there has to be some discount when the team is taking the risk that he has some serious injury or decline in performance before reaching FA.

Right.  I don’t think it’s a bad offer.  I just don’t think he wants to be there.

Thus why they should explore a trade.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Ben Clemens wrote some recent articles in which he calculated Arb salaries as a function of fWAR.  Soto was worth 6.6 fWAR last year.  At the rates calculated by Clemens, if his performance stayed steady, Soto would make something like $12.8 mm, 18.1 mm and $27.7 mm the next 3 years.   

Obvuously he will earn more than $350 mm if his performance stays steady and he remains healthy between now and free agency.   But, there has to be some discount when the team is taking the risk that he has some serious injury or decline in performance before reaching FA.

I forget where I read it, but I saw something like $14-16m/$22-24m/$28-30m as estimates for Soto's final 3 years of team control (assuming continued superstar production obviously). Both projections put those 3 years at well north of $50 million, which would technically make the AAV of his 10 FA years less than $30 million, which is much too low based on the current market, imo.

The point about the risk for the team of locking into such a massive long-term guarantee this far ahead of free agency is probably fair though, just not sure exactly how much of a discount would be reasonable. I think it's safe to say he'd easily find $35 million per year on the open market right now, maybe even $40 million, and without any significant injuries or signs of precipitous decline, I think he'll do roughly as well in 3 years, so I guess it's a matter of whether or not a discount of $5-10 million per year is fair for both sides under the present circumstances. I really have no idea on that one.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I forget where I read it, but I saw something like $14-16m/$22-24m/$28-30m as estimates for Soto's final 3 years of team control (assuming continued superstar production obviously). Both projections put those 3 years at well north of $50 million, which would technically make the AAV of his 10 FA years less than $30 million, which is much too low based on the current market, imo.

The point about the risk for the team of locking into such a massive long-term guarantee this far ahead of free agency is probably fair though, just not sure exactly how much of a discount would be reasonable. I think it's safe to say he'd easily find $35 million per year on the open market right now, maybe even $40 million, and without any significant injuries or signs of precipitous decline, I think he'll do roughly as well in 3 years, so I guess it's a matter of whether or not a discount of $5-10 million per year is fair for both sides under the present circumstances. I really have no idea on that one.

And to be clear, I wasn’t advocating that the Nats’ offer provided the proper level of discount.   I was just pointing out that I’d expect some level of discount.    

I wonder how the Padres are feeling about the 14/$340 mm they’re paying Tatis now that he may not be able to play SS anymore?  He’ll still be very valuable but that’s probably a 10-20% hit on his value even if he’s able to stay healthy as an outfielder.    (I haven’t heard the latest on where he’s expected to play this year.)

 

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nationals-350-million-extension-offer-undersold-juan-soto/

[jabba72]

Nationals To Entertain Trade Offers For Juan Soto After He Rejects $440MM Offer

Cant say I blame them. AAV of $29M

[Il BuonO]

I’m surprised by the offer and surprised it was refused, except for the fact his agent is Boras.