Adley Rutschman 2022

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We'll know if they were manipulating it if he misses the cutoff by a few days.

It will just take us a while to get that information.

 

Well, the team won’t know the cutoff date until after the 2024 season is complete.  He could debut on May 17 and not be a Super 2, or he could debut on June 20 and still be a Super 2, depending where the cutoff happens to fall when 2024 is over.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the team won’t know the cutoff date until after the 2024 season is complete.  He could debut on May 17 and not be a Super 2, or he could debut on June 20 and still be a Super 2, depending where the cutoff happens to fall when 2024 is over.   

I think teams have a pretty solid idea when the cutoff is going to be.

If he misses it by say three days I don't think that will be accidental.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We'll know if they were manipulating it if he misses the cutoff by a few days.

It will just take us a while to get that information.

 

How are we going to know that?  The Orioles don’t know what the Super 2 cutoff will be after the 2024 season any better than we do.  They could call him up on May 17 and he might miss being a Super 2 by a few days, or they could call him up on June 10 and he could squeak into Super 2 status by a few days.   Nobody knows until the next three seasons (including this one) are completed.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

How are we going to know that?  The Orioles don’t know what the Super 2 cutoff will be after the 2024 season any better than we do.  They could call him up on May 17 and he might miss being a Super 2 by a few days, or they could call him up on June 10 and he could squeak into Super 2 status by a few days.   Nobody knows until the next three seasons (including this one) are completed.   

You don't think they have any sort of algorithm that can predict the Super 2 date to a higher degree of likelihood than you or I can?

 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think they have any sort of algorithm that can predict the Super 2 date to a higher degree of likelihood than you or I can?

 

Not really.   It jumps around based on what other teams do, not just in the year the player is first called up, but in the subsequent seasons before the player reaches three years of service.  There isn’t much of a logical pattern to it.   I think if a team really wants to be safe, they have to call the player up in mid-June or later.   Otherwise they are risk.  As I mentioned in an edit to my earlier post, the cutoff after last year was 2 years, 116 days, which would equate to June 13 this season if 2024 turned out to be the same.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Not really.   It jumps around based on what other teams do, not just in the year the player is first called up, but in the subsequent seasons before the player reaches three years of service.  There isn’t much of a logical pattern to it.   I think if a team really wants to be safe, they have to call the player up in mid-June or later.   Otherwise they are risk.  As I mentioned in an edit to my earlier post, the cutoff after last year was 2 years, 116 days, which would equate to June 13 this season if 2024 turned out to be the same.   

For once I'm going to give them more credit than you do.

 

[seak05]

To really guarantee a player won’t reach super 2, the orioles would have to keep them in the minor’s until we’ll into June. From what Elias has said, that does not really seem to be the current plan.

[Sports Guy]

I think what they are gaming is the idea that the longer it takes for him to get up here, the less likely it is that he gets enough ROY consideration to where they lose that year of eligibility.  

 

Unless he had a set back we do not know about, there is no reason for him to not be in Baltimore by next week at the latest.

[RZNJ]

If one conspiracy angle doesn't work we'll come up with another and if none of them work we're going to move on to the next one. There's always a next one too.  lol

[Legend_Of_Joey]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If one conspiracy angle doesn't work we'll come up with another and if none of them work we're going to move on to the next one. There's always a next one too.  lol

Can more than one conspiracy angle be used at the same time for the same prospect, or is it just “one per?” 

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think what they are gaming is the idea that the longer it takes for him to get up here, the less likely it is that he gets enough ROY consideration to where they lose that year of eligibility.  

 

Unless he had a set back we do not know about, there is no reason for him to not be in Baltimore by next week at the latest.

My guess is he'll be in Norfolk for at least 14 games whenever they decide his Aberdeen rehab is over. They'll want him in midseason form when he gets called up. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

My guess is he'll be in Norfolk for at least 14 games whenever they decide his Aberdeen rehab is over. They'll want him in midseason form when he gets called up. 

I think he’s going to Bowie next week.  I’m not sure if that’s speculation I’ve read from the beat writers or posters here, or actual reporting.

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he’s going to Bowie next week.  I’m not sure if that’s speculation I’ve read from the beat writers or posters here, or actual reporting.

This does not feel right.   Catches for 5 innings.  Makes a throwing error.  DH the next game and now off.  I hope his arm is ok.

[ChuckS]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think he’s going to Bowie next week.  I’m not sure if that’s speculation I’ve read from the beat writers or posters here, or actual reporting.

I think his injury is/was more serious than we know. Catching five innings, DH’ing, and then sitting seems an absurd way to get someone back in the swing of things. 

Unless this is the most deliberate rehab plan known to man, something else is going on here. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

This does not feel right.   Catches for 5 innings.  Makes a throwing error.  DH the next game and now off.  I hope his arm is ok.

Yeah, I don't want to hear any word leak out in the next couple days about a twinge in Rutschman's arm.

Hopefully it's just the organization being too careful with their top prospect and not Rutschman complaining his arm feels funny.