Elias prioritizes player development over winning in the majors

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure I’d call a 3.46 ERA and 1.326 WHIP at A+ “dominating.”   And he’s pitched 31 innings over two years due to Covid and his injuries.   None of it is ridiculous.   

The plan is to hold Hall back in extended spring training for a while to conserve his innings for later in the season, and there’s every expectation some of those innings will be in Baltimore.   Sounds like a good plan to me.   
 

 

Yes, Hall in the MiL does make sense.

I was really hoping Bradish would have made the team out of ST. It's not the end of the world, I guess it just depends on how long they go with the other options IF they are failing.

 

Diaz ... he's another guy I wanted to see just so the Machado trade would bear some fruit. I know, that's not a good reason, but that's how I "fan".

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Who do you remove?  Who the hell is even in it besides Means and Lyles?  I think ZImmerman is also a lock.  The other 2 spots are up for grabs.

Let me rephrase. The guys that Bradish is competing with are also similar profile (mid level prospects without proven MLB success). So I wouldn't read him in AAA as saying anything about Elias's developmental strategy or attempting to win or not. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Let me rephrase. The guys that Bradish is competing with are also similar profile (mid level prospects without proven MLB success). So I wouldn't read him in AAA as saying anything about Elias's developmental strategy or attempting to win or not. 

Well Bradish has a higher ceiling but even getting past that, I think he’s valuing the service time over everything else and Bradish isn’t the type of prospect you play the service time game with.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Bradish has a higher ceiling but even getting past that, I think he’s valuing the service time over everything else and Bradish isn’t the type of prospect you play the service time game with.

I think you're picking at nits now.

Bradish isn't a top prospect. As Tony pointed out, his spring training stats aren't that great. Live arm, for sure, but even if they're playing service time games they're doing so with a mid-level prospect for a couple/few weeks. Even if you're 100% right about the motivation, it's a very small thing.

[Big Mac]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Who do you remove?  Who the hell is even in it besides Means and Lyles?  I think ZImmerman is also a lock.  The other 2 spots are up for grabs.

I would guess as of right now it is Means, Lyles, Zimmerman, T. Wells and Lowther with Akin and Kremer piggybacking.  I'd think Bradish is first man up from AAA and expect we will see a lot of him this year. 

[jrobb21613]

Maybe their saving money in order to pull the brink truck up to lock the young guys up like Adley, Grayon, DL up long term.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think you're picking at nits now.

Bradish isn't a top prospect. As Tony pointed out, his spring training stats aren't that great. Live arm, for sure, but even if they're playing service time games they're doing so with a mid-level prospect for a couple/few weeks. Even if you're 100% right about the motivation, it's a very small thing.

The overall mentality isn’t a small thing.  

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, osfan83 said:

I agree, this is not a surprise. But it also shouldn't be a surprise That fans will again avoid OPACY and MASN until the team is ready to try and actually win ball games. 

Mid to small market MLB team GM's have concluded that the best way to build a team is to tank for 4-6 years, and they may well be right. But fans are not obligated to financially support the team during those 4-6 years. 

The Orioles, in my opinion, don't fully appreciate or just don't care about that effect on its fan base. I'm sure that putting a lousy team on the field caused attendance and fan interest to decline in Houston, but even while the Astros were losing over 100 games their home attendance never dipped below 1.6 million. And when the team improved, attendance ramped up fairly quickly. That's not hard to understand. Houston and the entire region have a huge and growing population, and the only MLB competition remotely nearby is the Rangers. Houston has lots of large corporations, law firms, accounting firms, etc. who buy up season tickets, as well as a constant influx of young, well-paid professionals working for those firms, especially in the energy industry, who are looking to become Houstonians. Some Oriole fans have lost, and more will lose, interest after enduring years of terrible baseball and seeing their team vilified for not trying to win games. Some have switched allegiance to the Nats or Phillies or Yankees, or have lost interest in baseball, and they will continue to do so.

It will be a lot harder to replace them in Baltimore than it was in Houston. Some of that was inevitable. But by refusing to spend the money needed to bring in more talented players over the last few years, and by being, let's say, not very aggressive in promoting some of the most promising guys in their system, the Orioles have made not only the team but also the loss of fans worse than they had to be. And they're continuing to do so. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I would guess as of right now it is Means, Lyles, Zimmerman, T. Wells and Lowther with Akin and Kremer piggybacking.  I'd think Bradish is first man up from AAA and expect we will see a lot of him this year. 

Maybe..they haven’t been good about giving these guys consistent opportunities over a larger sample size.

[Camden_yardbird]

If this is true then Elias' player development is flawed.  Effective player development needs to maximize player time at or approaching peak in the majors.  At Elias' pace we may only see players who have reached their age 26 season and have them at or near peak for 3 or less seasons.

Hall and Rodriguez might be the exceptions.

The Rays routinely prepare and bring up players at 23-24 and get their best years for 5-6 years.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Who do you remove?  Who the hell is even in it besides Means and Lyles?  I think ZImmerman is also a lock.  The other 2 spots are up for grabs.

I think the two starters are Means and Lyles: the next three spots are going to be a mix of: Tyler Wells, Lowther, Zimmerman and Kremer with potentially Baumann or Akin (though Akin is pitching himself back to the minors again) in the mix as piggy backs.

I would not be surprised if this is how they tried it starting the year:

1. Means
2. Lyles
3. Zimmermann
4. T. Wells with 6. Akin as piggy back
5. Lowther with 7. Kremer as piggy back

That leaves the bullpen as:

8. Baumann would be a long guy or potential piggy back
9. Lopez
10. Tate
11. Sulser
12. Perez
13. Scott
14.  Bautista

If they go 15 man pitcher staff with the 28-man roster, then either Ellis makes it as another long guy or Baker makes it or they bring up Bradish and have pitch as a piggy back when needed.
 

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I love how this is depicted as being on a certain side.

There isn’t one person on this site that is against them building up a system, gathering talent, etc…there is zero disagreement to that.

The only disagreement is that some of us believe they should start trying to win now and not tank for another year.  Some of us are tired of players getting real ML time who aren’t MLers.  We want to see better players and more of a commitment from ownership to field a better product while continuing to look out for the long term good of the franchise.

Ok, who are the non ML players that will break on this 28-man roster? If you point to Gutierrez I will point to his 0.8 WAR that he put up in 47 games last year. While he may not be great, he performed admirably last year , particularly at defense at 3B. 

Are you talking about Owings who is going to be a utility guy? Mateo? I know you don't like him and he probably will end up a utility guy, but I have zero issues giving him everyday at bats for at least half a year to see what he can do.

Who else? Stewart? He's a back up outfielder who is holding a spot until Stowers is ready.

Who are these non MLB players that you keep referring to that Elias is playing in order to supposedly try to lose again?

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

The Orioles, in my opinion, don't fully appreciate or just don't care about that effect on its fan base. I'm sure that putting a lousy team on the field caused attendance and fan interest to decline in Houston, but even while the Astros were losing over 100 games their home attendance never dipped below 1.6 million. And when the team improved, attendance ramped up fairly quickly. That's not hard to understand. Houston and the entire region have a huge and growing population, and the only MLB competition remotely nearby is the Rangers. Houston has lots of large corporations, law firms, accounting firms, etc. who buy up season tickets, as well as a constant influx of young, well-paid professionals working for those firms, especially in the energy industry, who are looking to become Houstonians. Some Oriole fans have lost, and more will lose, interest after enduring years of terrible baseball and seeing their team vilified for not trying to win games. Some have switched allegiance to the Nats or Phillies or Yankees, or have lost interest in baseball, and they will continue to do so.

It will be a lot harder to replace them in Baltimore than it was in Houston. Some of that was inevitable. But by refusing to spend the money needed to bring in more talented players over the last few years, and by being, let's say, not very aggressive in promoting some of the most promising guys in their system, the Orioles have made not only the team but also the loss of fans worse than they had to be. And they're continuing to do so. 

I agree with a lot of this, but the Orioles drew well in 2014 and while the city is in a shambles since then, I do think it shows this area will support the Orioles when they put a winning team on the field once again. 

When Rustchman, Mayo, Cowser, Henderson, (whoever the #1 pick), Stowers, West burg and others are here and Rodriguez and Hall are in the rotatation, I do think we will see the fans come back a bit. 

Do I think they will draw like Houston, no, and you explained very well why, but they can draw effectively once they put a winning product on line. 

Next year needs to be the 1st year of that year in, year out contention that a well run organization with a sound foundation should produce. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well Bradish has a higher ceiling but even getting past that, I think he’s valuing the service time over everything else and Bradish isn’t the type of prospect you play the service time game with.

I don't know where your getting this. Bradish has potential but so do Lowther, Wells, Zimmerman, and Baumann. On the OH prospect list, Lowther is 15, Bradish is 17, Baumann is 18. Both Wells and Zimmerman have graduated off the prospect list but have some MLB success. We don't even know who the final rotation is going to be, but the fact that it's not Bradish doesn't tell me anything.

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, who are the non ML players that will break on this 28-man roster? If you point to Gutierrez I will point to his 0.8 WAR that he put up in 47 games last year. While he may not be great, he performed admirably last year , particularly at defense at 3B. 

Are you talking about Owings who is going to be a utility guy? Mateo? I know you don't like him and he probably will end up a utility guy, but I have zero issues giving him everyday at bats for at least half a year to see what he can do.

Who else? Stewart? He's a back up outfielder who is holding a spot until Stowers is ready.

Who are these non MLB players that you keep referring to that Elias is playing in order to supposedly try to lose again?

 

 

 

Tony, if you don’t think a better team could have been put on the field, you either completely overrate the team we have or you think Elias is terrible at his job.  You also believe in yourself an evaluator of talent and I shouldn’t have to go through the roster player by player to say who should and shouldn’t be here.

We should have at least 2 better starters(and no lyles), at least 2 better guys in the pen and a different left side of the IF, with Urias playing everyday at second.  
 

While I think Mancini should be traded, obviously he is good at DH and RM is fine at 1st and the OF is good to go.  Adley should be up pretty much immediately and maybe he would have been here if not for the injury.

But it’s the pitching staff and left side of the IF that should have been improved upon. 

And btw, KG had a -.6 WAR in 2021 according to FG and he has a zero WAR prior to 2021 in the majors.  His MiL numbers are also pretty underwhelming at a quick glance and yet you are pointing to a SSS at the end of last year.  When did you become wildcard?

I agree that he’s fine defensively but the idea that he is penciled in to get 400+ at bats is horrible.

You keep saying, so and so will be up..give them time.  I tend to agree they will.  But when?  And what type of chance will they get?  How long will the rope be?  Until I see them consistently writing these guys on the lineup card and consistently sending them out to the mound, I’m skeptical.

And again this is also about where they are as an organization being 4 years into this.  We should not have so much mediocrity still getting at bats and innings pitched.   I will say it does seem like it’s better this year than last year, so I’m at least encouraged by that and again, I’m one of the few on here who believes they can contend for a playoff spot in 2023.  If I didn’t believe in Elias or the talent this organization has amassed, I wouldn’t believe that.

But they should be doing more now with this team and they failed to do so.