ESPN's Ravech: Teixeira has "enormous attraction to the Orioles" Close to signing

[The Rick]

Ill have this to say about an opt out. I live in Connecticut and am surrounded by Soxs and yankee fans. Yesterday I said I could very easily see the Orioles signign tex and he said some to the effect of... that's cool, he will opt out in 3 years and sign with Red Sox when they really need him. My first reaction was to kick him in the ...baseballs but I wanted to keep my job. That would be the worst feeling in the world if in three years the Orioles were not competitve and tex opted out to join the sox or yankees. It really highlights the point that if the Orioles do sign tex and give him an opt out in three years that the Orioles need to go all out to be competitive by then. That means not making many other personel mistakes.

Where does everyone get the 3-year mark from?

A 3 year opt-out would have me nervous, a 5-year, not so much.

[Big Mac]

I don't know how credible but..

http://www.sportsworldny.com/index.php?showtopic=16764

Who cares though who has a deeper farm system. Most top prospects don't pan out let alone the ones buried in AA and A. I will take the Os top 5 over any in baseball hands down.

Those are last year's rankings. I have no doubt we will be rankd ahead of the Nats this year.

[TJ Wrangler]

In about 6 month's though they will. Weiters I would think would be in the bigs at that point. It really doesn't matter at this point. Most of these guys are a crap shoots minus Weiters types. Both system are improved.

No prospect in our system is on the level of Wieters, but Matusz, Tillman, and Arrietta are far from crapshoots.

Matusz especially, I'll go on the record and saying he's as close to a sure thing as a pitching prospect can be without being named David Price.

[Mackus]

My question is why wouldn't you??? Would you sign Tex to a 4 year $80 million deal???? I would. If he opts out after 4 years the 9 year $180 million deal becomes a 4 year $80 million one.

I agree. If thats what it takes, make the deal. However, I do my damnedest to try and get the opt out as late as possible, year 5 would be better than year 4, for example. Also, if there is an opt out clause, I make damn sure the deal is backloaded as much as possible. Not only is it smarter in general to backload a deal financially, but that would make staying in Baltimore more attractive at the time of the opt-out since he'd have more money coming his way than just the annual average of the deal, and if he does opt out, we end up not paying him as much as we could have.

9/$180M

2009 - $12M + $10M signing bonus

2010 - $16M

2011 - $18M

2012 - $18M

2013 - $20M

opt out option, would be 5/$94M if he opts out

2014 - $23M

2015 - $24M

2016 - $24M

2017 - $25M

The full contract would be worth about $155M in present value. If he opts out, its a 5/$94M, worth about $86M in present value.

[Maverick2143]

Baseball America says so. I'll take their opinion over yours.

To my knowledge and with a quick glance of BA's website that haven't even done their system rankings for the Nats yet.

[semaj2989]

Ill have this to say about an opt out. I live in Connecticut and am surrounded by Soxs and yankee fans. Yesterday I said I could very easily see the Orioles signign tex and he said some to the effect of... that's cool, he will opt out in 3 years and sign with Red Sox when they really need him. My first reaction was to kick him in the ...baseballs but I wanted to keep my job. That would be the worst feeling in the world if in three years the Orioles were not competitve and tex opted out to join the sox or yankees. It really highlights the point that if the Orioles do sign tex and give him an opt out in three years that the Orioles need to go all out to be competitive by then. That means not making many other personel mistakes.

Couldn't agree more, it would be terrible to see him walk. Im from CT too and its not even worth talking about Tex signing at this point.

[javadawg44]

In about 6 month's though they will. Weiters I would think would be in the bigs at that point. It really doesn't matter at this point. Most of these guys are a crap shoots minus Weiters types. Both system are improved.

I believe you're looking at last years numbers, pretty sure BA hasn't finished ranking the organizations yet. It would be a good question for tomorrow's chat with Callis, however. But last years top 10 had Liz as the #2 prospect, only Wieters was there from our top 4 (Tillman yet to arrive in the Bedard deal, Matusz not drafted yet, etc).

So in the end, I believe your information is outdated, and incorrect.

[twoBshorty]

The NTC clause is meaningless in this case IMO.

The opt out could actually work in our favor...If he opts out after 5 years or something like that, then we could end up not paying him in his likely declining years.

Yeah, you are probably right on the NTC because by year five he will be a 10/5 player anyway. But I just feel that things like no-trade clauses and opt-outs are things that benefit only the player and in that case it needs to be reflected in the monetary value of the contract. $2XX million plus NTC plus opt-out means Boras bent us over, IMO, and I don't like seeing what I view as lack of negotiating savvy. No-trade clauses do necessarily limit your flexibility even if you think you'd never trade the guy anyway.

[MurphDogg]

Baseball America says so. I'll take their opinion over yours.

Baseball America said so a year ago, and in the time since then we added the top pitcher in the draft, our top prospect developed into the top hitting prospect in the game and our other two top pitching prospects made steps forward. In that year, the Nationals failed to sign their top pick in the draft, their top prospect (Marrero) stagnated, though he remains young for the league and their top pitching prospect (Ross Detwiler) also did not progress as much as hoped.

[Aberdeener]

This is a good way to look at it, and I think ultimately the opt-out clause is designed for more money, not necessarily a contingency on rather or not the O's are contenders then or not. In fact, I'd bet he'd opt-out and try to get more per year even if we were competitive.

Right, and that's the part I don't like. I hate the thought of him backing out in the middle of the contract only to try to get more cash, like JD Drew did recently. There's really no benefit to us at all. If he's not playing well or is hurt (doubtful), he won't back out and try to get a new contract. If he's playing REALLY well and/or we aren't a contender, he'll skip out of town and try to get a bigger payday. I dont' know if I would let that be a deal breaker, but I sure as hell would be unhappy with it. :rolleyestf:

[Jdan14]

Orioles>Nationals

Ravens>Redskins

Weiters>Zimmerman

Baltimore>Washington.

That is what I learned in math class today.

[OrioleMagic]

Sorry I haven't bee active today. I pm'd Belkast and Peace about 11am this morning after I rec'd a text that Tex was suppose to be in the Warehouse today. All hell then broke loose on the board. After I got out of arbitration I contacted him back and was tiold to the best of his knowledge he was not there today. Lots of speculation about the contract being done with the exception of a opt out, no trade, and the amt of the signing bonus (upfront money). He felt Boston was still very much a player here so don't assume it's a done deal.

The pitching aspect of the team is also picking up steam. We've targeted no less than 8 players for the three open slots we'll fill. We're in play for both players from Japan and would welcome both. He still hasn't been able to figure out the player we're looking to trade for.

All in all it sounded like a very uplifting day in the Warehouse as well as OH.

Let's hope we can get this thing done.

Roy Oswalt please....

[The Rick]

Are these opt-out clauses at the sole discretion of the player?

[ChaosLex]

Well, I can tell you one thing. Even if the O's and Tex have an agreement with each other, they won't come forth with the news until sometime during the daylight hours tomorrow. There's no chance ole Pete lets this news slip in the middle of the night.

Hmm... maybe it's a good thing we haven't heard from Belkast lately?

[geschinger]

My question is why wouldn't you??? Would you sign Tex to a 4 year $80 million deal???? I would. If he opts out after 4 years the 9 year $180 million deal becomes a 4 year $80 million one.

Because if you are actually at the point where you can contend and he can opt out after 3 or 4 years you either are in the offseason having to plug a huge hole that you wouldn't have been able to plan ahead for or you need to tack on a couple of extra years and extra money per year to keep the player.