Manny Machado and the Hall of Fame

[BohKnowsBmore]

Our old friend Manny is off to a torrid start this year and is almost assuredly the current favorite for NL MVP. Through May 21 (40 games), he was slashing .358/.430/.576/1.006 with 8 HR, 7 SB, 30R, and 25 RBI. All together, this represents 3.0 bWAR on the season. BBref stats haven't updated yet, but his slash line is up to .374/.446/.619/1.066 following his 4/4 day on May 22, which will almost assuredly push his bWAR up further.

My question to you is how do you rate his probability of making the HoF as of today? 

He's already at 48.2 rWAR (before update) and is still 29. Based on JAWS, doesn't look like he would measure up to HoF standards if his career were to end today, but he's obviously on a great trajectory. If he slows down a little bit this year, he still has a great shot at adding an MVP to his resume and ending the year closing in on ~55 rWAR.

Quote

JAWS
  Third Base (26th): 
    48.2 career WAR | 38.8 7yr-peak WAR | 43.5 JAWS | 5.8 WAR/162
  Average HOF 3B (out of 15):
    68.4 career WAR | 43.0 7yr-peak WAR | 55.7 JAWS | 5.1 WAR/162

In terms of more traditional counting statistics, he's only 21 hits away from 1,500 and has a really good shot at ending the year surpassing the 1,600 mark. Additionally, will likely surpass 300 doubles this year (284 right now) and 300 HR next season (259 right now).

So what say you? As of today, I would say ~85% (second option), but only because of injury risk potentially derailing his pace (or sudden flat-lining of performance post-30 a la Andruw Jones). If I were able to assume health going forward, I would say he's almost a shoe-in even with merely average production in his mid-30s.

[Just Regular]

I wish his opt-out was after this year, not next year.    Timing still might be okay as in 2023 worst case we'll get to see if Gunnar Henderson or Jordan Westburg is actually a MLB shortstop.   Plus you can always trade.

I'm more Band1, though 3B and Rolen's painful slog is worth noting.    Here he is charted v. Rolen and Arenado.

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=11493,970,9777&wg=2

[tinman]

Pretty high IMO. His greatest asset is his durability. Hes played in more games than anybody in the MLB since 2015.

Also, it appears that he is actually getting better. It seemed he may have plateaued a few years ago and he was what he was. But hes turning it up.

He may actually be just starting his peak 2-3 years.

Edited May 23, 2022 by tinman

[Sports Guy]

I went with 55-75%.  If you told me he was going to remain healthy the rest of his career, I would put him higher than that but you can't totally assume it.

[Moose Milligan]

Are Orioles fans going to be butthurt when he goes into the HoF wearing a Padres hat?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are Orioles fans going to be butthurt when he goes into the HoF wearing a Padres hat?

#inferioritycomplex

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I went with 55-75%.  If you told me he was going to remain healthy the rest of his career, I would put him higher than that but you can't totally assume it.

This.   There are tons of examples of guys who were looking like Hall of Famers when they turned 30 but fell off a cliff for one reason or another.   But very few Hall of Famers had piled up as much WAR as Manny before they turned 30.    He’s got some cushion so that’s why I gave him over 50/50 in the 55-75% range.  But really what distinguishes most HOFers from also-rans is their ability to continue to play well into their mud-late 30’s or beyond.  

[btdart20]

I went low (probably too low).  I think he'll be fringy in reality, but he doesn't have the best reputation and writers frequently vote with their heart vs. their head.

[jabba72]

He only really needs 22 more WAR to be at the 70 threshold so I'll assume he gets that much. Is that HOF worthy? 

[ArtVanDelay]

4 hours ago, jabba72 said:

He only really needs 22 more WAR to be at the 70 threshold so I'll assume he gets that much. Is that HOF worthy? 

Yes.  Scott Rolen is going to get in next year. 

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, jabba72 said:

He only really needs 22 more WAR to be at the 70 threshold so I'll assume he gets that much. Is that HOF worthy? 

Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker say “apparently not.”   It depends a bit how you get there.   Defense isn’t as appreciated as offense in most cases.   Manny has the advantage of having started very young, so his counting stats should be impressive if he stays healthy.  

[Just Regular]

Some October heroics, whether with San Diego or another team, wouldn't hurt.

Elias sometimes mentions the game being "flat" right now, which I take to mean almost all of the 30 teams are evaluating similarly.

Some of that group-think I feel translates to post-peak, near-MVP caliber players not spending their early 30's on bad teams, as I feel the Red Sox, Phillies and Padres of the next few seasons have some chance of being.

More likely the Dodgers vacuum everybody up, but some slip through to rosters with championship caliber nucleuses and payroll flexibility.

I'm pretty stoked to see how the Early Adley teams, even if it is minus Grayson Rodriguez, acquit themselves against these moldy IMO Red Sox while they are running hot.    It's a series I could fathom being 50-15 on aggregate either way.

[tinman]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Some October heroics, whether with San Diego or another team, wouldn't hurt.

Elias sometimes mentions the game being "flat" right now, which I take to mean almost all of the 30 teams are evaluating similarly.

Some of that group-think I feel translates to post-peak, near-MVP caliber players not spending their early 30's on bad teams, as I feel the Red Sox, Phillies and Padres of the next few seasons have some chance of being.

More likely the Dodgers vacuum everybody up, but some slip through to rosters with championship caliber nucleuses and payroll flexibility.

I'm pretty stoked to see how the Early Adley teams, even if it is minus Grayson Rodriguez, acquit themselves against these moldy IMO Red Sox while they are running hot.    It's a series I could fathom being 50-15 on aggregate either way.

 

The idea that early 30s is "post peak" seems odd to me. I've long hard the rule that players peak at age 27, but that is a general ballpark idea. Plenty of players have had their peaks in their early 30s. In fact, among great hitters early 30s seems to be not the beginning of the decline phase. But 30-32 seems to be the absolute zenith for many if not the majority of great hitters. Rod Carew, Willie Mays, Miguel Cabrera, Pete Rose, Albert Pujols, Joe Morgan, Ichiro Suzuki, etc. All of these guys didn't just stave off decline in their early 30s, they put the throttle down and had their peak seasons. 

 

Manny seems to be hitting his stride, forget decline, he's ascending. 

[mrbig1]

Slam dunk. move over Brooks, Frank, Jim, Earl.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/25/2022 at 11:53 AM, Just Regular said:

Some October heroics, whether with San Diego or another team, wouldn't hurt.

Elias sometimes mentions the game being "flat" right now, which I take to mean almost all of the 30 teams are evaluating similarly.

Some of that group-think I feel translates to post-peak, near-MVP caliber players not spending their early 30's on bad teams, as I feel the Red Sox, Phillies and Padres of the next few seasons have some chance of being.

More likely the Dodgers vacuum everybody up, but some slip through to rosters with championship caliber nucleuses and payroll flexibility.

I'm pretty stoked to see how the Early Adley teams, even if it is minus Grayson Rodriguez, acquit themselves against these moldy IMO Red Sox while they are running hot.    It's a series I could fathom being 50-15 on aggregate either way.

It seems like the Dodgers already have an All Star at just about every position.  I'm not sure where they have much room to sign anybody else.  Maybe a SS if they don't keep Turner.