btdart20 Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Came across this page yesterday. #1 player taken doesn't always mean 'best rated' at the time of the draft. Especially before the slotting system. It's from 2011. But it's likely a good proxy for the under/over-slot (portfolio) strategy. Signing Bonuses: No. 1 Overall Picks Year-by-Year | Perfect Game USA I'd probably give the edge to the #1 overall, but the largest bonus column is pretty strong too. No clue what the career WAR numbers total or the % of players who made it to the MLB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frobby Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 Here’s the list from Bb-ref, which you can shuffle to be in WAR order. Not a ton of Hall of Fame types, but plenty of solid long-time major leaguers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/ The first pick is the best place to be, but rarely is the player who turns out to be best drafted there. That’s why the term “BPA” is a bit of a misnomer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdwilde1 Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 It’s been discussed plenty, but the baseball draft is really tough. Over the last 20 years, the 1-1 provides a little better than a 50/50 chance to be a good major leaguer, and that includes guys like Justin Upton (who has put up less than 1 rWAR in 7 out of 16 seasons). That’s not to say we, as fans, should be satisfied with an average outcome from the 1-1 slot. Moreover, it really highlights how special the O’s 2019 draft might be considering the potential of Adley and Gunnar Henderson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
now Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 On 6/30/2022 at 8:36 AM, DocJJ said: So success rate 70% position players, 44% pitchers. And some of those "successful" pitchers only played 5 seasons.... Now steroids may have skewed the numbers some, tough to say.... In a sport where a 10% difference marks scrub vs. star (.200 BA vs. .300 BA), this spread of .700 vs. .440 is outlandishly slam-dunk, as far as which side to go with. At least, it should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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