Soto & Ohtani Might Be Available, interested?

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

The mega contracts signed by players under 28 can turn out ok. A-Rod's first contract, Kershaw, Machado's seems fine, Arenado's seems fine, I don't think the Phillies regret Harper's or the Angels regret Trout's.

Perhaps .. but half a billion is a pretty big risk .. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1871-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=18,d

19th all time in wRC+ tied ahead of Willie Mays, Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron. So yeah. 

It’s impressive, but let’s see where they are after 2000-3000 games.  Not everyone maintains a high level of play in their 30’s. 

[Paul in Virginia]

Juan Soto trade sweepstakes: What these 10 teams can offer the Nationals - The Athletic

 

Didn't see this posted here before.  A fascinating position for the Nats to be in, and what a COLOSSAL expense (money and in prospects) it would be for anyone who trades for Soto.

 

We may be in the same position as the Nats if one or more of our young guys are as good as we think they are.  Let's hope we're able to reach comparable hauls as these if/when we're faced with an ENORMOUS contract demand by a player.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Paul in Virginia

[Bahama O's Fan]

Is this the most guaranteed money in a contract for anyone in America, or the world, ever?

[Remember The Alomar]

This reminds me more of an NBA superstar trade saga than anything that usually occurs in the MLB. 

[Just Regular]

The Baseball Trade Values people did a podcast the other day, sharing that by their valuations, Soto's median was ~$190mm surplus value and that by their reckoning about half of the other 29 Team's entire farm systems had less median surplus value than that.

They also had the insight that 15/440 at ~29mm/year is a number he might challenge in Arb3 NEXT year.

[Chelsea_Phil]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The Baseball Trade Values people did a podcast the other day, sharing that by their valuations, Soto's median was ~$190mm surplus value and that by their reckoning about half of the other 29 Team's entire farm systems had less median surplus value than that.

They also had the insight that 15/440 at ~29mm/year is a number he might challenge in Arb3 NEXT year.

What does the surplus value number mean?

[Just Regular]

12 minutes ago, Chelsea_Phil said:

What does the surplus value number mean?

Estimated dollar value of the MLB Wins Soto would be forecasted to produce above his actual estimated salary, for the remainder of the period of time the Club controls his rights, now about 2.5 seasons in Soto's case.

In theory anytime anyone signs as a free agent that number would be 0.

[DrungoHazewood]

21 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

The mega contracts signed by players under 28 can turn out ok. A-Rod's first contract, Kershaw, Machado's seems fine, Arenado's seems fine, I don't think the Phillies regret Harper's or the Angels regret Trout's.

Trout is signed through 2030, Harper 2031.  There's a lot of time for their teams to regret what they've done.  Mickey Mantle retired before he got to the ages they'll be at the end of their current deals.

But the real issue with acquiring Soto or Ohtani is that neither would be likely to sign with the Orioles long-term so the team would be giving up multiple high-end prospects and taking on salary for a few years of the player.  And they'd almost certainly be looking to trade them prior to free agency even though they'd probably be in contention.  Trade them, or let them walk for nothing.

[Hallas]

6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Trout is signed through 2030, Harper 2031.  There's a lot of time for their teams to regret what they've done.  Mickey Mantle retired before he got to the ages they'll be at the end of their current deals.

But the real issue with acquiring Soto or Ohtani is that neither would be likely to sign with the Orioles long-term so the team would be giving up multiple high-end prospects and taking on salary for a few years of the player.  And they'd almost certainly be looking to trade them prior to free agency even though they'd probably be in contention.  Trade them, or let them walk for nothing.

I get that it's early, but I really, really don't think Trout is going to make the Angels regret the contract.  He's probably going to suck in 2029-2030, but he'd have to sink to Ken Griffey Jr. levels of injury to make them really regret it.  I guess it's possible but I really feel like Griffey going from iron man to glass man the second he hit 31 was unique.  But as far as Trout's contract is concerned, he's pretty far ahead of the curve when it comes to earning his contract amount on a dollars per WAR basis, and as long as he avoids injury and doesn't decline too much through about 33-34 he should be pretty close to earning his full keep with 4 (albeit declining) years left in his deal.

 

I would love to have Ohtani and if the O's and Ohtani had a good chance of being able to come to terms on a fair deal, I'd be all over him.  But I really don't know how to value him for a contract.  The list of 2-way players that are all-stars as hitters and pitchers in the past century is pretty much Ohtani and Babe Ruth.  If you give him elite pitcher money, you're probably short-changing him on years since hitters typically get longer contract terms.  Elite DHs don't usually make as much but at his age are likely good for much longer contracts than pitchers.  And then there's the value of having an elite DH and elite pitcher in 1 player, and the value in having a player designated as a two-way player in an era where pitching spots on a roster are constrained.  Coming up with a number that takes all this into account feels like pulling a random number out of your rear end.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I would love to have Ohtani and if the O's and Ohtani had a good chance of being able to come to terms on a fair deal, I'd be all over him.  But I really don't know how to value him for a contract.  The list of 2-way players that are all-stars as hitters and pitchers in the past century is pretty much Ohtani and Babe Ruth.  If you give him elite pitcher money, you're probably short-changing him on years since hitters typically get longer contract terms.  Elite DHs don't usually make as much but at his age are likely good for much longer contracts than pitchers.  And then there's the value of having an elite DH and elite pitcher in 1 player, and the value in having a player designated as a two-way player in an era where pitching spots on a roster are constrained.  Coming up with a number that takes all this into account feels like pulling a random number out of your rear end.

Ruth only had two years as a two-way player, 1918 and 1919.  And by '19 he was not an All Star pitcher.  133 innings, 15 starts, 58 walks, 30 strikeouts.  Even in '18 he was 13-7 in 19 starts with more walks than Ks. 

The last pitcher to really play like Ohtani in the majors was probably Blonde Guy Hecker. In 1886 he made 48 starts on the mound (136 game schedule), went 26-23 with a 2.87 ERA, played 39 games between the OF and 1B, and won the batting title hitting .341.  But this was almost 140 years ago in a league that was probably the equivalent of a mid-tier college league today.

[DrungoHazewood]

From 1886 throuth 1890 Dave Foutz had a 123 OPS+ as a batter, and was 83-36 on the mound with a 131 ERA. In 1887 he and teammate Parisian Bob Caruthers switched between the outfield and the mound, each hitting .357 in over 400 PAs, and combining to go 54-21 as pitchers.

Ohtani is really doing things we haven't seen since before cars and airplanes were invented.

[Yardball85]

On 7/16/2022 at 7:36 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm not really interested in trading 6.00-6.75 years of GrayRod and/or Gunnar (plus multiple other high-ceiling pieces) for an expensive year+ of Shohei or an expensive 2+ years of Soto despite how unbelievably good they are, so put me in the "pass" column.

This is where I'm at.  

[Just Regular]

I will be bummed if the Yankees get Soto, but the year they are having, the long drought by their standards, the annual 40-man crush needing its Gallo purge, the redundancy of Volpe-Peraza, the scrubs at the 3rd outfield spot they won't want to play in October....a lot of it doesn't look good.     Aaron Judge diplomacy maybe working against, and Soto maybe saving them for a desired Judge over-commit would be another bitter bit if it happened.

Hopeful LAD dives in on a unique property.    If anyone would take on the Strasburg $$$, maybe its NYM.    Even if Soto is +$200mm, Strasburg-Corbin nearly balance that out.

[RZNJ]

On 7/17/2022 at 5:24 AM, Roll Tide said:

There is 0 chance that either of these guys are in play for the Orioles. 

Here is something we can agree on!