I don't want to become the Rays

[Just Regular]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Maybe first place Cleveland with their 27th ranked payroll. 

They do have a great system, but I'm sure it was delightful for Jose Ramirez when they released Franmil Reyes to try out Will Benson, or stood pat at the deadline.    I'd thought the new minority owner might move the needle a little bit, but at least this trade deadline it didn't.

Looking forward to seeing how they do next year with the more balanced schedule.

On October secret sauce, I remember year-over-year the 2016-2017 Astros teams evolved from near worst to near best at contact rate.    I think it was the Carlos Beltran-Nori Aoki offseason as they went from playoff losers to champs.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Just Regular

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I'm sure it was delightful for Jose Ramirez when they released Franmil Reyes to try out Will Benson, or stood pat at the deadline.    

Looking forward to seeing how they do next year with the more balanced schedule.

I can't put faith in any group of individuals who voluntarily decides "hey, lets call ourselves the Guardians."

[nc_stats_nerd]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Correct and the Astros won their WS with a payroll under 100M iirc.

Their payroll has gone up because players have become arb eligible and they have been able to spend more as playoff revenues and ticket sales have grown.

The Os payroll went up in the mid 2010s for the same reason.  This would be my expectation going forward but I also am not going to the second and especially third arb seasons with limited guys, like Mountcastle.

Agree. They've had in-house guys that earned the money and they didn't need to go crazy with long-term free agent deals. Love the Astros approach of high AAV, shorter-term contracts too. Gotta think they'd seen enough of LAA/TEX screwing that up lol.

Keep the farm system rolling, keep the best (Adley, Gunnar, Rodriguez) and lock them up rather than trading them (like the Astros, not the Rays...).

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, nc_stats_nerd said:

Agree. They've had in-house guys that earned the money and they didn't need to go crazy with long-term free agent deals. Love the Astros approach of high AAV, shorter-term contracts too. Gotta think they'd seen enough of LAA/TEX screwing that up lol.

Keep the farm system rolling, keep the best (Adley, Gunnar, Rodriguez) and lock them up rather than trading them (like the Astros, not the Rays...).

Absolutely.  I mentioned that earlier.  Give me a 2/75 deal over a 3/90 deal any day of the week.  
 

 

[deward]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Correct and the Astros won their WS with a payroll under 100M iirc.

Their payroll has gone up because players have become arb eligible and they have been able to spend more as playoff revenues and ticket sales have grown.

The Os payroll went up in the mid 2010s for the same reason.  This would be my expectation going forward but I also am not going to the second and especially third arb seasons with limited guys, like Mountcastle.

The Astros Opening Day payroll in 2017 was already back to $124M. Basically doubled from Opening Day 2016.

[Just Regular]

25 minutes ago, nc_stats_nerd said:

Keep the farm system rolling, keep the best (Adley, Gunnar, Rodriguez) and lock them up rather than trading them (like the Astros, not the Rays...).

I'd throw Holliday in to make a Core Four group, and agree much of the story of 2030 is how many if any of those players can the Orioles agree on free agent seasons with.    I think power rankings wise I'd guess outcomes at

2-2

1-3

3-1

0-4

4-0

Even the 5th-10th best Orioles (Cowser?   Mullins?   Hall?) are probably just warm-up acts.

For all the good work Elias has under his belt so far, we haven't seen him provide any sample of outcomes above the Jordan Lyles price point closing deals in one of the pipelines that are relevant to fielding excellent baseball teams.

One echo of Chris Davis and Manny Machado I hope to see in near term seasons is the Orioles paying a pitcher of proven quality say triple Jordan Lyles money, getting their money's worth, but Grayson Rodriguez also running I'm Twice As Good As Him circles around whoever it is.

[Moose Milligan]

I read the first page but I'm not reading the whole thing.  It's lunchtime and I'm hungry.

But I will say, I'd like to be the Rays because they're always smart and always seem to have a wave of talent coming up.  They continually prove that you can have a good team without spending a ton of money.

Where I'd not like to be the Rays is being able to keep guys in Baltimore that we draft and develop.  I want Adley here for a long time.  We can afford more than the Rays spend, I am confident about that.

 

[Sports Guy]

Look at who is on the IL for Tampa.

Franco, Glasnow, Baz, Feyereisen, Fleming, Zunino, Anderson, Margot and Keiermeir.

These guys have been out or out for the year or missed big chunks of the season.  Other guys like Fairbanks came back after missing time.  

These are some of their best and most important players

Yet they have a WC spot and currently the 4th best run differential in the AL.  
 

It’s  astounding what they have been able to do this year and what they do every other year.  

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Sports Guy

[winning]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Look at who is on the IL for Tampa.

Franco, Glasnow, Baz, Feyereisen, Fleming, Zunino, Anderson, Margot and Keiermeir.

These guys have been out or out for the year or missed big chunks of the season.  Other guys like Fairbanks came back after missing time.  

These are some of their best and more important players

Yet they have a WC spot and currently the 4th best run differential in the AL.  
 

It’s  astounding what they have been able to do this year and what they do every other year.  

 

 

They have been a solid team for a very long time with a low payroll, but have produced 0 championships. At the end of the day they have produced the same results as we have over the past 40 years. Which is 0 championships. The only thing that matters is winning the World Series. Now, if they somehow managed to acquire DeGrom or Verlander they would scare the crap out of me.

Edited August 12, 2022 by winning

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, winning said:

 

They have been a solid team for a very long time with a low payroll, but have produced 0 championships. At the end of the day they have produced the same results as we have over the past 40 years. Which is 0 championships. The only thing that matters is winning the World Series. Now, if they somehow managed to acquire DeGrom or Verlander they would scare the crap out of me.

A lot wrong with this.  But they started winning in 2008.  Since they started winning, the Yankees have 1 title and that was in 2009.  The Dodgers have one and many say it’s not a real title and it was their first since 1988.

Giving yourself a chance every year is what is important.  Yes, winning a title ultimately matters the most but winning in the playoffs is just as much about luck as it is being the best team.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Sports Guy

[winning]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot wrong with this.  But they started winning in 2008.  Since they started winning, the Yankees have 1 title and that was in 2009.  The Dodgers have one and many say it’s not a real title and it was their first since 1988.

Giving yourself a chance every year is what is important.  Yes, winning a title ultimately matters the most but winning in the playoffs is just as much about luck as it is being the best team.

 

It doesn't matter! That's the point here. It's about winning the World Series. It's the only thing that accounts.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, winning said:

 

It doesn't matter! That's the point here. It's about winning the World Series. It's the only thing that accounts.

Elias has said much the same. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, deward said:

To be fair, the Rays have never won a championship. The Moneyball A's never won one either.

I posted this in another thread, but the average payroll position of every WS winner since 2000 has been 9th in the league. All but 3 were in the top half of the league. The lowest was the 2003 Marlins at 25th (possibly the closest comp to the O's as of today - but they haven't been to the playoffs since). When the Astros won in 2017, they were already back up to 18th and climbing steadily. While it's not necessary to have a Yankees or Dodgers size payroll, I don't think it's just random chance that only one team in the bottom 10 in payroll has won a championship in the past 22 years. 

I'm totally fine with following the Astros model (I mean, I wasn't really fine with the complete teardown and neglect of the big league team part of it, but that's done now). They built around a talented, young core and have paid to keep some and judiciously swapped out others when strong replacements were available. While I would certainly rather win games like the Rays have than lose them, my biggest gripe as a fan would be the constant roster instability. It would be very hard to get excited about Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson knowing that they'll be traded to the Dodgers in 3-4 years because the team can't afford to keep them around. 

Good post, but this is what I want to highlight. The fact is the Orioles can afford to keep their stars unlike the Rays. the fact is the Orioles can afford to carry a top ten payroll when it's all said and done. Can they afford to be top 3 like they were in the late 90s, no, but this team can be a solid mid-market team.

The Astros success is probably the goal, but I know I'd rather have a 87+ win team every year and take my chances in the playoffs then sell their soul for a chance at a World Series only to go back to losing for many years like the Marlins.

Personally, I think Elias is setting the team up to have replacement for some star players so he won't have to pay them all. That's a good thing overall, but no, I don't want to be like the Rays knowing as soon your young stars get good and the team is on the cusp they are always traded and you start over.

Maybe Elias is building hybrid Tampa/Astros model? 

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, winning said:

 

It doesn't matter! That's the point here. It's about winning the World Series. It's the only thing that accounts.

Lol ok

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, winning said:

Guys, this Major League Baseball. The Buck (no pun intended) stops here! Winning the World Series. That is what it's about. The only thing that accounts. This is the highest level league in the world. The only objective is to win the World Series. 

In the Minors you develop future talent for the MLB team. That's why they call it a farm. College baseball is about getting a scholarship and getting a degree. High school baseball is extracurricular. Independent Leagues and Beer Leagues are for guys who want to have fun after they leave the office. 

Again, this is Major League Baseball. If you're not here to win the World Series or rebuild for a future run. Then stop watching. Turn off the TV if you're a fan. Or quit baseball if you're a player. 

Agreed to an extent. But would you want to by the Marlins? Would you trade Rutschman, GRodriquez, Henderson and Holliday tomorrow if it guaranteed you a world series next year, knowing you would have to break the team back down to a loser for years afterwards?

I think everyone's goal is to win a World Series, but the best way to get there is to build a consistent winner that gets you into the playoffs and you catch fire at the right time.