I don't want to become the Rays

[Jim'sKid26]

Can the fanbase, and by extension the business operations department of Baltimore Orioles Baseball, support a payroll in the top 10 in baseball? What is the business model that allows retention of star players, roster flexibility and investment in infrastructure while operating in a market you share with another MLB team who own a sizable portion of you RSN? How can you maintain all of the aspects of player acquisition, domestic amateur scouting, international scouting, player development and analytics, while still forking out big $ to your star players on the MLB team?

These are legitimate questions to be answered by the current leadership group.

[OriolesMagic83]

36 minutes ago, winning said:

 

They have been a solid team for a very long time with a low payroll, but have produced 0 championships. At the end of the day they have produced the same results as we have over the past 40 years. Which is 0 championships. The only thing that matters is winning the World Series. Now, if they somehow managed to acquire DeGrom or Verlander they would scare the crap out of me.

Having a consistently winning franchise is important to me and I would think others, not just championships.  If the O's didn't have their winning "streak" from 2012=2016, they would be working on 24 years of losing.  I don't anyone wants to imagine that.  The year I became a fan, 1982, was a year the O's came up short of the playoffs, so I imagine that a lot of fans would think that year was a failure.  Yes, the goal is winning it all, but some of us would like to enjoy the ride.

On a sidenote, I would like to have an owner that is willing to invest a good amount in the team when it would make a difference.  For example, in 2014, when the O's were a couple of players away from beating the Royals and going to the World Series and the O's did nothing in the offseason and lost several players. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, winning said:

 

They have been a solid team for a very long time with a low payroll, but have produced 0 championships. At the end of the day they have produced the same results as we have over the past 40 years. Which is 0 championships. The only thing that matters is winning the World Series. Now, if they somehow managed to acquire DeGrom or Verlander they would scare the crap out of me.

Winning the World Series is to a very large extent luck.  You can pretend it's not, but it really is.  Just do the math.  On day one of the playoffs an epic, dynastic, historc .700 winning percentage team has less than a 50% chance of winning it all.  Winning three rounds of playoffs each with odds of 65%, 60% and 55% gives you an overall shot of 21%, or about 1-in-5.  So you've taken your odds of getting through three series from 12.5% (if all teams were equal) to 21% by building a dynasty.

Basically the only way to give yourself really good odds of winning the Series is to be in the playoffs almost every year.  And then get lucky.

If you think the 2015 Royals had a magic key to winning, I'm here to tell you they didn't.  They had a good team, and they happened to win.  If they really knew the secret they wouldn't have had zero championships since 1986 besides 2015.

If nothing matters except the World Series then I feel a little sorry for you, because even the best team in the world faces steep odds against taking the trophy home.

Edited August 12, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, winning said:

Guys, this Major League Baseball. The Buck (no pun intended) stops here! Winning the World Series. That is what it's about. The only thing that accounts. This is the highest level league in the world. The only objective is to win the World Series. 

In the Minors you develop future talent for the MLB team. That's why they call it a farm. College baseball is about getting a scholarship and getting a degree. High school baseball is extracurricular. Independent Leagues and Beer Leagues are for guys who want to have fun after they leave the office. 

Again, this is Major League Baseball. If you're not here to win the World Series or rebuild for a future run. Then stop watching. Turn off the TV if you're a fan. Or quit baseball if you're a player. 

Of course the goal is to win the World Series.  But I think you're quite mistaken in the causality of the relationship between spending or trying and actually accomplishing it.

You seem to think you just spend more money and win more World Series.  $X = Y World Series trophies.

The real formula is more like $X + Y amount of smarts and strategy + 10*Luck = ? Titles.

The Yankees have put more resources than anyone in MLB and plenty of brains and energy into winning over the last 10 years and they have zero trophies to show for it.  Should they hang their heads in shame?  Of course not, they gave it their best effort but the luck and the fact that 29 other teams are doing their level best to beat them won out.

I think that anyone who can't enjoy the ride if there's no big trophy in the end is probably watching the wrong sport.  For me 1989 and 2012 were more enjoyable and satisfying than 1983.

Edited August 12, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[Gurgi]

I became a fan in 77.  I have had only one World Series win.  What I want out of my team is the same kind of team from 77-83 again.  Always be in the pennant.  Sometimes win 100 games.  Occasionally sneak into the Series.  Win it once.   Put up a 12-15 year run never under .500.  

This is my birthright as an Oriole fan.   

 

[winning]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Agreed to an extent. But would you want to by the Marlins? Would you trade Rutschman, GRodriquez, Henderson and Holliday tomorrow if it guaranteed you a world series next year, knowing you would have to break the team back down to a loser for years afterwards?

I think everyone's goal is to win a World Series, but the best way to get there is to build a consistent winner that gets you into the playoffs and you catch fire at the right time.

I would GLADLY take 10 years of being in the basement for 1 World Series victory. 

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, winning said:

I would GLADLY take 10 years of being in the basement for 1 World Series victory. 

As someone who's almost religiously followed the O's since 1979, from 2017 or 2018 until recently I got in the habit of not even watching baseball.  My soccer fandom grew by leaps and bounds, mostly to fill the gap.  When the Orioles are winning 50 games a year baseball is simply no fun.  110 losses a year kills off most of the fanbase. When they're competing it's all kinds of fun. 

There is no way on God's green earth I'd ever trade 10 years of solid, competitive baseball for one trophy and nine years of crap.

Do you actually like watching baseball?  What would you do during the nine years the team is in the basement playing terribly?

Edited August 12, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

As someone who's almost religiously followed the O's since 1979, from 2017 or 2018 until recently I got in the habit of not even watching baseball.  My soccer fandom grew by leaps and bounds, mostly to fill the gap.  When the Orioles are winning 50 games a year baseball is simply no fun.  110 losses a year kills off most of the fanbase. When they're competing it's all kinds of fun. 

There is no way on God's green earth I'd ever trade 10 years of solid, competitive baseball for one trophy and nine years of crap.

Do you actually like watching baseball?  What would you do during the nine years the team is in the basement playing terribly?

I've watched and followed more this year than I have in a long time. Heck, I rarely even came to the Orioles Talk forum here because it just wasn't very interesting or important. The minors stuff has been so much more fun. 

That's finally changing and I love it.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, winning said:

I would GLADLY take 10 years of being in the basement for 1 World Series victory. 

I think I differ here. We've been through some bad, awful teams and I'm not sure I'd sell the future for a quick win, even if it meant a World Series.

 

[nc_stats_nerd]

27 minutes ago, winning said:

I would GLADLY take 10 years of being in the basement for 1 World Series victory. 

The difference is you can't look at the future and build a strategy that has 9 bad years and 1 World Series year. It doesn't work that way. You want a World Series more than anything, and so does everyone on this board, but the approach I think you would like to take doesn't actually maximize the probability of winning more WS than being consistently good would.

Let's say you can construct a team such that you know in one given year you're the best team in baseball, but for the other 9 you're not a playoff contender. The probability of winning the World Series in your good year: roughly 15%. Heck, let's be optimistic and say 20%. Total expected WS victories with this strategy? One every 50 years. Hello new Baltimore Orioles curse to go next to Chicago and Boston lol.

Now if your gameplan is instead to at least deliver a playoff team consistently, top-12ish, each year your probability of winning the World Series is closer to 7-8%. Do that consistently and on average you'd win a World Series every 13-14 years. That's a blueprint that'll payoff for the Rays eventually, but due to natural variance in the game it just hasn't happened yet.

All this to say, we all want a World Series, but if you ride or die for one glorious year you have a better chance of being the 1918-2004 White Sox than a WS every ten years.

And for the record, I don't want to be the Rays either. We have more money than that. I'll take a Rays/Astros hybrid though in a heartbeat.

Edited August 12, 2022 by nc_stats_nerd

[Gurgi]

Sustained excellence is what builds a rabid fan base.  Not a shooting star miracle World Series victory.  

[jamalshw]

I mean, I get the OP to some extent. I don't want to become the Rays either, but not for the same reason. I want a team that can sustain excellence, but I'd love to combine the smarts with some money and retain some guys. The Rays seem to be trying that with Wander Franco given his extension, but I think Baltimore should have the wherewithal to keep a solid system churning and sell off some guys at their peak (like the Rays) while also keeping some key guys around even if it means they aren't sold at their highest value. I'd love to see Adley or Henderson or Grayson be life long Orioles (or at the very least Orioles well into their 30s). It's fun to be able to follow players on your team throughout the vast majority of their careers. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, nc_stats_nerd said:

The difference is you can't look at the future and build a strategy that has 9 bad years and 1 World Series year. It doesn't work that way. You want a World Series more than anything, and so does everyone on this board, but the approach I think you would like to take doesn't actually maximize the probability of winning more WS than being consistently good would.

Let's say you can construct a team such that you know in one given year you're the best team in baseball, but for the other 9 you're not a playoff contender. The probability of winning the World Series in your good year: roughly 15%. Heck, let's be optimistic and say 20%. Total expected WS victories with this strategy? One every 50 years. Hello new Baltimore Orioles curse to go next to Chicago and Boston lol.

People will sometimes say "just do what the Marlins did!" Two problems. First, the Marlins did it when there were fewer rounds of playoffs and less uncertainty.  Second, if you ran the 1997 or 2003 seasons over 1000 times most of those times the Marlins wouldn't win.  The '03 Marlins finished 10 games out in their own division.

Oh, also... nobody ever trusts the Marlins to keep their word again.  Every player they ever sign to a massive contract they trade for scraps 18 months later.  The fanbase wasn't great to begin with, and then they sold off everything but the kitchen sink before they'd cleaned up the champagne.

Edited August 12, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I mean, I get the OP to some extent. I don't want to become the Rays either, but not for the same reason. I want a team that can sustain excellence, but I'd love to combine the smarts with some money and retain some guys. The Rays seem to be trying that with Wander Franco given his extension, but I think Baltimore should have the wherewithal to keep a solid system churning and sell off some guys at their peak (like the Rays) while also keeping some key guys around even if it means they aren't sold at their highest value. I'd love to see Adley or Henderson or Grayson be life long Orioles (or at the very least Orioles well into their 30s). It's fun to be able to follow players on your team throughout the vast majority of their careers. 

Sentimentally that's great.  But one of the surest ways to tank a good run is to pull a 2010 Phillies and start signing every 30-year-old Ryan Howard to a 5/125 deal because he's one of our guys.

You don't have to let everyone leave.  But you need to be very judicious in handing out long-term contracts to 29-year-olds likely on the cusp of decline.

Edited August 12, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[owknows]

8 hours ago, winning said:

I don't want to become the Rays

I don't want to become old and feeble-minded. But I could probably handle being the Rays