Everyone trying 1B

[Brooks The Great]

7 minutes ago, waroriole said:

On what planet is Vavra better? Because he’s had his first 40 ABs in MLB be somewhat positive? Urias has been performing at this level since last year. 

How do you define "this level"? I ask because his performance this season has been slightly below league average. And last year Urias was significantly better than he's performed this year. I don't see many similarities between his production last year and this year. His production is down significantly across the board.

Vavra has a track record in the minor leagues of being a high OB, high AVG, low K contact hitter. And he's shown those skills and that approach thus far in the majors. That's not the type of hitter that Urias is. I think Vavra has already shown in his limited time that he fits a new philosophy of hitting approach that Adley Rutschman and Gunner Henderson will lead the way for.

You could argue that Urias is a better option than Gunnar Henderson as well because Henderson hasn't proven he can put up a .745 OPS in roughly 600 MLB at bats like Urias has. But I wouldn't agree with that, and I certainly would bench Urias in favor of Henderson. And I think Mike Elias will consider Henderson the better option/player, because Urias will lose playing time to Henderson once GH is promoted.

[waroriole]

16 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

How do you define "this level"? I ask because his performance this season has been slightly below league average. And last year Urias was significantly better than he's performed this year. I don't see many similarities between his production last year and this year. His production is down significantly across the board.

Vavra has a track record in the minor leagues of being a high OB, high AVG, low K contact hitter. And he's shown those skills and that approach thus far in the majors. That's not the type of hitter that Urias is. I think Vavra has already shown in his limited time that he fits a new philosophy of hitting approach that Adley Rutschman and Gunner Henderson will lead the way for.

You could argue that Urias is a better option than Gunnar Henderson as well because Henderson hasn't proven he can put up a .745 OPS in roughly 600 MLB at bats like Urias has. But I wouldn't agree with that, and I certainly would bench Urias in favor of Henderson. And I think Mike Elias will consider Henderson the better option/player, because Urias will lose playing time to Henderson once GH is promoted.

Until Vavra shows he can drive the ball at the ML level, I don’t know why his OBP wouldn’t significantly decline. He’s getting challenged more now, since pitchers know he’s selective, and he’s not a hitter who will hurt you. He’s never hit for much power in the minors. This isn’t AAA where pitchers are more likely to struggle throwing strikes. 
 

Obviously, the Gunnar comment doesn’t make sense since he’s shown that power. 

Edited August 18, 2022 by waroriole

[jdwilde1]

4 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Urias has never proven that he's anything more than a slightly above average replacement level player. This season he's been below league average going by his OPS+. 

 

I don’t know what an “average replacement player” is, so you may need to clarify your position.  If you mean slightly better than a replacement player, then the first sentence is factually inaccurate.  Urias has been worth 4.0 WAR over his career (181 games/650 PAs).  Also, he’s actually been better than an average player, as he has produced a 1.8 WAA over that same span.  That is, Urias has been worth almost 2 wins more than a league average player, and 4 more wins than a replacement player over approximately one full season’s worth of playing time.

Also, to the point about him being below average, this year, with a 98 OPS+, does not indicate that he is a below player.  The guy provides above average defense (6 Rfield) while playing three premium defensive positions (3B - 569.1 Innings, 2B - 95 innings,  SS - 40 innings).

Now, if you do not believe the defensive metrics, that’s a different conversation.  But I think his defense passes the eye test too.

[foxfield]

8 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

Playing 1B is not that hard..tell 'em Wash

It's incredibly hard.

[ShoelesJoe]

9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

In the last 28 days Mountcastle has a .504 OPS with 2 home runs in 89 at bats. 

Yet Hyde keeps penciling his name in the 3/4 slots in the order. Mountcastle’s performance is only part of the problem here. 

[jrobb21613]

With Mountcastle stuggles this year and not really having a true 1b down on the farm. Do you we make a run at Josh Bell in the off-season? 

[Gurgi]

32 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

With Mountcastle stuggles this year and not really having a true 1b down on the farm. Do you we make a run at Josh Bell in the off-season? 

I dont think you need to get a first base.  You can use whatever player you dont want at third or SS.  Eddie was drafted as a third base IIRC.   They gave him first after one season of DH in 77.   

[BohKnowsBmore]

10 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Urias has never proven that he's anything more than a slightly above average replacement level player. This season he's been below league average going by his OPS+. So yes, they'll bench an MLB regular for a "kid". It'll happen.

Urias is absolutely a player that you bench in favor of the top prospect in the game according to multiple publications. So yes, Urias can sit. And I think he will. 

Urias' glove is not special enough that he deserves to keep starting if his offensive production is below average.

 

 

8 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Urias has been mildly disappointing. His walk rate this year is almost half what it was last year. He is going to have to pick it up in a hurry to keep an every day job, and probably not for the Orioles even in the best case scenario. I wonder if there will be any market for him this offseason. 

 

7 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

Urias really just had one really hot streak/month this season that tricked some posters on this board into thinking he's some sort of indispensable player. I like Urias as a depth piece with some potential to be a slightly above average offensive 2B/3B, but we're going to be a much better team with Urias and Odor on the bench (or gone, in Odor's case), Nevin in the minors where he belongs, and Vavra, Gunnar, and Stowers (along with Adley of course) grinding out at bats, seeing way more pitches, and getting on base at a much higher rate.

 

6 hours ago, waroriole said:

Urias has a .745 OPS over 592 career ABs. Vavra has .734 over 41 ABs. Hold your horses, because this Urias disrespect is silly. 

 

6 hours ago, Big Mac said:

To be fair, Vavra has an .878 career minor league OPS including a .410 OBP.  I don't know if Vavra is or will end up being a better player, but I would guess he gets on base more than Urias at least.  Urias is now sitting at a career .326 OBP. 

Ramon Urias has been worth 4.0 rWAR and 2.5 fWAR over exactly 650 MLB PA. He's graded out a slightly above average player (and 2022 generally appears to be his best year yet).  

[now]

22 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I dont think you need to get a first base.  You can use whatever player you dont want at third or SS.  Eddie was drafted as a third base IIRC.   They gave him first after one season of DH in 77.   

Same goes for Mountcastle himself, which supports your point. More shortstops (and outfielders) knocking at the door will add to the surplus flow to first, even without big trades, or draft picks like Torkelson. OTOH, that surplus could net a trade just as well. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

 

5 hours ago, jdwilde1 said:

I don’t know what an “average replacement player” is, so you may need to clarify your position.  If you mean slightly better than a replacement player, then the first sentence is factually inaccurate.  Urias has been worth 4.0 WAR over his career (181 games/650 PAs).  Also, he’s actually been better than an average player, as he has produced a 1.8 WAA over that same span.  That is, Urias has been worth almost 2 wins more than a league average player, and 4 more wins than a replacement player over approximately one full season’s worth of playing time.

Also, to the point about him being below average, this year, with a 98 OPS+, does not indicate that he is a below player.  The guy provides above average defense (6 Rfield) while playing three premium defensive positions (3B - 569.1 Innings, 2B - 95 innings,  SS - 40 innings).

Now, if you do not believe the defensive metrics, that’s a different conversation.  But I think his defense passes the eye test too.

98 OPS+ is nearly indistinguishable from 100 OPS+, or precisely average with the bat (across ALL batters). All while playing premium defensive positions (not 1B, DH, or poor COF) . Don't need to fully buy into any glowing defensive metrics to acknowledge that he's clearly not a scrub.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Gurgi said:

I dont think you need to get a first base.  You can use whatever player you dont want at third or SS.  Eddie was drafted as a third base IIRC.   They gave him first after one season of DH in 77.   

Agreed I think with the potential for an overload of position players you can shift one of them to 1B. Perhaps a player with a less impressive glove.

The team could also possibly trade a surplus outfield/infield prospect for a 1B in another organization.   
 

The one thing I don’t want is the O’s to sign a high priced free agent to play 1B. Save those limited free agents funds for pitching or a more important defensive position. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

 

 

 

Ramon Urias has been worth 4.0 rWAR and 2.5 fWAR over exactly 650 MLB PA. He's graded out a slightly above average player (and 2022 generally appears to be his best year yet).  

I'm not sure where you are getting that about 2022. WAR is about the same. His OPS+ is down from 112 to 96 and his walk rate has plummeted. It appears the main increase in value is that he is better at 3B than 2B, not that he has turned into a better player. And I just don't know how sustainable his offense is if he's only walking at 4%. 

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate everything he has brought. I think he could be a viable regular. For those clamoring to call up the prospects right now, it is not a given that Gunnar/Westburg will outperform him right away. However, in view of the prospects we have, I don't see how he is an everyday player with our team in '23. He might have more value to another team as a starter. If not, keep him around to pick up some platoon AB's and for insurance should the prospects struggle, but Gunnar, Westburg, and Vavra probably get first crack at 2B/3B with Mateo at SS. 

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

With Mountcastle stuggles this year and not really having a true 1b down on the farm. Do you we make a run at Josh Bell in the off-season? 

No. I think the Orioles feel they can fill 1B internally since the defensive skills needed are fairly easily developed from an infielder skill set. They will use that FA money on pitching IMHO.

[justD]

They just showed video from practice today, Santander taking grounders at 1B.  Apparently, he played some 1B in the minor leagues?

Edit: MiLB career 9 games, .988 fielding percentage on 82 total chances. 

Edited August 19, 2022 by justD

[NCRaven]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

…the defensive skills needed are fairly easily developed…

No, it’s incredibly hard.  

Couldn’t help myself.