It Ain't Over

[MarCakes21]

On 9/8/2022 at 7:49 PM, Sports Guy said:

So many scenarios to do that.  Prospects for vets…Mullins for young pitching.  Spend money.  Os have the flexibility to attack this in so many ways. 

BTW, I don’t really care if we get a MOO or just multiple new good bats but I do think we need to add in more offensive talent.

I guess at a simple level, how much WAR do you expect additional out of your offense?  Here's what I pulled from Bref for oWAR:

Name    oWAR
Adley Rutschman#    3.5
Cedric Mullins*    3.2
Anthony Santander#    2.6
Jorge Mateo    1.9
Ramon Urias    1.9
Austin Hays    1.6
Trey Mancini    1.6
Ryan Mountcastle    1
Gunnar Henderson*    0.5
Rougned Odor*    0.4
Robinson Chirinos    0.1
Kyle Stowers*    -0.1
Terrin Vavra*    -0.1

Then the question is where can you get it?  Most obvious spot is a pure DH with backup 1B potential if you maintain, ie what Mancini was giving you on the order of 2-3 WAR. 

The alternative is a trade, but then you're addition by subtraction and increased spending, with someone like Turner/Bogarts/Haniger/Bell/Abreu/Nimmo.  Those guys might get you 3-5WAR, but you could also be subtracting 2-3 above if you trade.

[hallThalmt18h]

I'm not sure the Orioles need to pick up a MOO bat next year.  We have two current developing MOO's (Gunnar and Adley) plus more emerging power knocking on the door.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I guess at a simple level, how much WAR do you expect additional out of your offense?  Here's what I pulled from Bref for oWAR:

Name    oWAR
Adley Rutschman#    3.5
Cedric Mullins*    3.2
Anthony Santander#    2.6
Jorge Mateo    1.9
Ramon Urias    1.9
Austin Hays    1.6
Trey Mancini    1.6
Ryan Mountcastle    1
Gunnar Henderson*    0.5
Rougned Odor*    0.4
Robinson Chirinos    0.1
Kyle Stowers*    -0.1
Terrin Vavra*    -0.1

Then the question is where can you get it?  Most obvious spot is a pure DH with backup 1B potential if you maintain, ie what Mancini was giving you on the order of 2-3 WAR. 

The alternative is a trade, but then you're addition by subtraction and increased spending, with someone like Turner/Bogarts/Haniger/Bell/Abreu/Nimmo.  Those guys might get you 3-5WAR, but you could also be subtracting 2-3 above if you trade.

Don't use oWAR, it's just confusing.  If you want to highlight offensive contributions use batting runs.  The addition of position adjustment to both oWAR and dWAR is a structural mistake by bb-ref, makes those two metrics non-summable, and does more to obscure than enlighten.

For example, the table above makes Mullins', Mateo's and Rutschman's offense look better because it's padded with position offsets.  And the other direction for 1B/DH/COF.

Edited September 15, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[MarCakes21]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Don't use oWAR, it's just confusing.  If you want to highlight offensive contributions use batting runs.  The addition of position adjustment to both oWAR and dWAR is a structural mistake by bb-ref, makes those two metrics non-summable, and does more to obscure than enlighten.

For example, the table above makes Mullins', Mateo's and Rutschman's offense look better because it's padded with position offsets.  And the other direction for 1B/DH/COF.

Understood, but then feel free to redo the thought process rather than criticize it.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Understood, but then feel free to redo the thought process rather than criticize it.

Not so much criticizing, just a cautionary note.  Sean Foreman had his reasons, but oWAR/dWAR is not something that should be presented on page one.  If it's anywhere it should be buried in some sub-menu.

[mrbig1]

It ain't over? Wait till we play the blowjays.

[Keygans]

59 minutes ago, mrbig1 said:

It ain't over? Wait till we play the blowjays.

We are gonna kick their ass, take their lunch money and stuff them in their lockers!   

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Keygans said:

We are gonna kick their ass, take their lunch money and stuff them in their lockers!   

That's the spirit!!!

[dtk9119]

So pitching match ups for TOR series are out.. as I expected 

Fri: Lyles vs TBA

Sat: Bradish vs Berrios

Sun: Kremer vs Manoa 

Would love a sweep but we have to win 2/3. Fri and Sat seem like best bets..

I'm not worried about the pitching. All about the offense. 

[bpilktree]

We will be 4 back basically in the loss column after tonight.   The loss column is all that really matters .   It just depends if it 4 games vs the Rays or 4 games vs the Jays.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

We will be 4 back basically in the loss column after tonight.   The loss column is all that really matters .   It just depends if it 4 games vs the Rays or 4 games vs the Jays.  

We are 4 back of the Rays now.  It would only be 3 if they lose.  

My gut feeling is that we have a better chance to catch Toronto since we still play them 6 times.   But I’m pretty indifferent.   Either way we need to go at least 12-8 from here, maybe better.  
 

[bpilktree]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are 4 back of the Rays now.  It would only be 3 if they lose.  

My gut feeling is that we have a better chance to catch Toronto since we still play them 6 times.   But I’m pretty indifferent.   Either way we need to go at least 12-8 from here, maybe better.  
 

Yes but they have tiebreaker on us so we have to be 1 game better then them.  The Jays if we are tied we will have the tiebreaker on them most likely because we pretty much have to split these last 6 to have any chance to be tied with them.   I have no idea who gets the tiebreaker if all three of us have identical record though.  

[ExileAngelos]

ESPN playoff chances algorithm certainly hasn't counted out!  2.2% wooooo

[sportsfan8703]

44 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We are 4 back of the Rays now.  It would only be 3 if they lose.  

My gut feeling is that we have a better chance to catch Toronto since we still play them 6 times.   But I’m pretty indifferent.   Either way we need to go at least 12-8 from here, maybe better.  
 

15-5. One game at a time. The goal is to be in a spot for that last series against Toronto to matter. 

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

One game at a time. The goal is to be in a spot for that last series against Toronto to matter. 

I want to be within 2 games of them before that last series and take the first 2. Shades of 1982 for me. I hope for a different outcome but that setup 1983 so I would accept that 2023 WS as a consolation prize.