Should Santander be traded this offseason?

[WarehouseChatter]

I’ve seen some on this board along with some baseball insiders suggest that Santander could be moved this off-season.  While we could get our largest return by trading him (more so than Hayes but maybe not Mullins), should we really move him.  He’s the closest thing we have to a middle of the order bat, and at an OPS near .800 with 27 HR and 79 RBI, are we better off keeping him.  He has a good arm in RF.  While Hayes won’t provide as much of a return, I think we could be better off keeping Santander.  Thoughts?

[owknows]

How about Butchman and Genderson?

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, owknows said:

How about Butchman and Genderson?

 

 

No way am I trading Nutchman or Venderson are you nuts?

I don't see any team trading a ton for Santander.

[PHRESH]

16 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

I’ve seen some on this board along with some baseball insiders suggest that Santander could be moved this off-season.  While we could get our largest return by trading him (more so than Hayes but maybe not Mullins), should we really move him.  He’s the closest thing we have to a middle of the order bat, and at an OPS near .800 with 27 HR and 79 RBI, are we better off keeping him.  He has a good arm in RF.  While Hayes won’t provide as much of a return, I think we could be better off keeping Santander.  Thoughts?

Gary Thorne is back! 

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see any team trading a ton for Santander.

A ton of what?  Let's say he has $20M in surplus value over the two years until he's a free agent.  At current market rates that'll get you about 50,000 metric tons (or 55,115 US tons) of soybeans.

Would you trade two years of Anthony Santander for 55,000 tons of soybeans?

Edited September 14, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

A ton of what?  Let's say he has $20M in surplus value over the two years until he's a free agent.  At current market rates that'll get you about 50,000 metric tons (or 55,115 US tons) of soybeans.

Would you trade two years of Anthony Santander for 55,000 tons of soybeans?

Depends how hungry I am.  And whether I can flip those soybeans for a good starting pitcher. 

[Sports Guy]

Imo, 2 of Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and Hays should be dealt this offseason.  Don’t really care which 2 go.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Imo, 2 of Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and Hays should be dealt this offseason.  Don’t really care which 2 go.

Who do you think would be a suitor for Hays? 

[nvpacchi]

Santander has put up 110 wRC+ as a lefty and 159 wRC+ as a righty this year, I love the lineup versatility that brings.  Plus he's one of the only guys on the team with an above average walk rate and strikes out less than 20% of the time.

I don't think we can replace those peripherals with someone from the minors immediately next year, nor can Hays or Mountcastle suddenly do it.

[wildcard]

Elias has to improve the offense over the winter.   Not sure yet how he will do that.   Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz will help but that's probably not enough.

[Pickles]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Imo, 2 of Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and Hays should be dealt this offseason.  Don’t really care which 2 go.

I mean this is really such a poor thought process it should be commented on.

Not only have you committed to moving 2/3s of your starting outfield, you don't care which two you move, and presumably aren't that bothered about the return either.

Trades shouldn't be made for the sake of making trades.  No good GM operates in such a manner.

[deward]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Imo, 2 of Santander, Mullins, Mountcastle and Hays should be dealt this offseason.  Don’t really care which 2 go.

Why? I mean, if better alternatives are available, sure, but I don't see that as a given. Moving Hays to make room for Stowers makes sense, if they've seen enough to feel confident that he's ready for a full run next year. Are you assuming that Cowser will be ready to step in on Opening Day and produce as well as Mullins or Santander? I wouldn't move any of them unless there is a clear succession plan that won't set the team back.

[RZNJ]

I’m not sure any of the outfielders should be dealt.  Hays, Mullins, Santander, and Stowers can get plenty of playing time between them.   Cowser isn’t quite ready.  The improvement can come internally.  A full season of Rutschman and Henderson.  Ortiz replaces Mateo.  That should be an upgrade.  Urías stays at 2B or 3B depending on where they want to play Henderson.  Westburg comes up as a super utility guy who can play all 4 IF positions and maybe even some OF.   
 

Hays is a good candidate for a rebound next year.   Same for Mountcastle.   Two of this years weak spots, Odor and Mateo, are replaced by Henderson and Ortiz.  Westburg takes on the Nevin role in a much more expanded manner.

Stowers DH’s and fills in the OF.  Rutschman DH’s on days he doesn’t catch.  
 

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make.  Look to deal Mateo.  Look for a good FA pitcher.  Possible trade using some depth for a young starting pitcher.

Edited September 14, 2022 by RZNJ

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I mean this is really such a poor thought process it should be commented on.

Not only have you committed to moving 2/3s of your starting outfield, you don't care which two you move, and presumably aren't that bothered about the return either.

Trades shouldn't be made for the sake of making trades.  No good GM operates in such a manner.

[btdart20]

13 hours ago, WarehouseChatter said:

I’ve seen some on this board along with some baseball insiders suggest that Santander could be moved this off-season.  While we could get our largest return by trading him (more so than Hayes but maybe not Mullins), should we really move him.  He’s the closest thing we have to a middle of the order bat, and at an OPS near .800 with 27 HR and 79 RBI, are we better off keeping him.  He has a good arm in RF.  While Hayes won’t provide as much of a return, I think we could be better off keeping Santander.  Thoughts?

Keeping Santander has its merits.  He's has been one of our most trustworthy bats in the line-up in 2022.  Especially with Mancini gone.  He seems to be one of the few vets to buy into the team's mantra of plate discipline of pitch selection/swing decision. 

Trading Santander has its merits too.  Since he's a switch hitter, he could bring a decent return (maybe more at a trade deadline).  I'm sure the Blue Jays would love a solid bat to break up their righty heavy line-up.  He doesn't really bring any defensive value.  Santander's team control should put his trade value floor well ahead of Mancini.  Maybe he's the guy traded to maximize value which allows us to maintain Mullins' defense up the middle.  And it sounds like they value defense up the middle (and they won't be trading Mullins).  

He seems to be one of the few vets to buy into the team's mantra of plate discipline of pitch selection/swing decision.  In addition to the BB%, another piece of data that supports his buy-in is that he's actually swinging at less pitches in the zone (66.0% ZS% - lowest of career) yet has made contact on those pitches at a career high rate (86.6% ZC%).  He's deciding to swing at pitches he thinks he can hit and that has rewarded him with his highest HH% and BRL% of his career.  (Fun fact:  Savant has that his expected HR by park would have him already at 30+ in 19/30 stadiums.  If he played all of his games at OPACY, he would have 25.  The lowest of any stadium.  Yet the new LF wall hasn't impacted him at all so far.)

Seems like his hitting gains have only been seen as a RHH though.  He has basically maintained as a LHH (which is like 75% of his PAs), but really improved as a RHH (in 25% of his PAs).  

2022 - .233/.314/.422 (as a LHH) vs RHP and .299/.368/.547 (as a RHH) vs LHP

Career - .243/.299/.450 (as a LHH) vs RHP and .262/.312/.465 (as a RHH) vs LHP

** Imagine that type of improvement as a LHH in 75% of his PAs!! **

Is his RHH change sustainable (I think it is to some degree because that's his natural side)?  Will his buy-in influence Elias to keep Santander (and allow him to work on his LHH approach this off-season)?  Or be a good 'sell high' moment?

This off-season should prove interesting!

IMO - It depends on what they view as our biggest need in relation to the available FA market.  Can we address SP in the FA market?  Can we address the offense in FA?  Whatever that answer to that question is will (likely) drive whether they trade Santander or not. 

If the primary goal is to sign a FA SP, then I doubt Santander is traded.  If they want to address SP through a trade, then a Santander+ package seems like a valid option (but I hope that means his bat is replaced by an FA MOO type).