Bases loaded, down a run, nobody out, 9th inning. Gotta love having Adley up in that situation.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

I didn't know it was that extreme, so I defer to your comment about always driving one run in. Of course, now Frobby or Drungo will now come in with stats about other "clutch" situations where the production was less, lol.  I don't care, my memory is what is is, Eddie was fearsome and intimidating. 

For a little context, in 2022 the entire league hits .334/.335/.532 with the bases loaded and nobody out.  With a sac fly about once every six PAs. Eddie was great in those situations, but an average batter hits like Ty Cobb with them loaded and nobody out.

And, yes, OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).  Why do they count sac flies as a time up, but don't count sac bunts or catcher's interference as anything?  I don't know, I guess it made sense to someone.

[Tony-OH]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, that’s a perfect situation for Adley.   Nowhere to put him, and you know you have to throw him a strike fo get him to swing.  It’s almost unfair.  It reminds me of when Eddie would come up in situations like that.  

Kinda shows everyone how good he is already. I doubt very many teams or pitchers want to be in that situation with many players up, but with Adley, you almost know the game is going to get tied at the very least somehow.

[LA2]

50 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For a little context, in 2022 the entire league hits .334/.335/.532 with the bases loaded and nobody out.  With a sac fly about once every six PAs. Eddie was great in those situations, but an average batter hits like Ty Cobb with them loaded and nobody out.

And, yes, OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).  Why do they count sac flies as a time up, but don't count sac bunts or catcher's interference as anything?  I don't know, I guess it made sense to someone.

Eddie's .480/.397/.960 is still miles above .334/.335/.532. If the latter is Ty Cobb-level, Eddie was what? Maybe one and a half Babe Ruths.

[Frobby]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

For a little context, in 2022 the entire league hits .334/.335/.532 with the bases loaded and nobody out.  With a sac fly about once every six PAs. Eddie was great in those situations, but an average batter hits like Ty Cobb with them loaded and nobody out.

And, yes, OBP is (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF).  Why do they count sac flies as a time up, but don't count sac bunts or catcher's interference as anything?  I don't know, I guess it made sense to someone.

I had never noticed until very recently that sac bunts weren’t included in the denominator of OBP.  I imagine the rationale of why sac flies are included but sac bunts are not, is that most sac files are thought to be plays where the batter was trying to get a hit, whereas most sac bunts are truly just an effort to give yourself up to advance the runner.  But if that’s true, why aren’t sac flies counted as at bats when calculating batting average?  Oh well, it’s mostly rounding error level of significance.  

In Eddie’s case, I think you’d say the large number of sac flies was a consequence of his approach.   He holds the major league record for sac flies, with 128.   He was very good at trading an out for a run in situations where getting the run was more important than losing the out.
 

[DrungoHazewood]

                                                                                                         
Rk     I            Player     Split From   To   OPS G GS PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG
1      I       Dusty Baker 0 out 123 1972 1986 1.595   35 34 28 35 17  3  0  3  43  0  1  2  2 .607 .559 1.036
2        Edwin Encarnacion 0 out 123 2005 2019 1.506   43 42 34 23 15  3  1  5  48  0  0  3  4 .441 .476 1.029
3              Barry Bonds 0 out 123 1986 2007 1.480   44 43 32 46 20  5  0  1  56  0  0  6  1 .625 .605  .875
4             Albert Belle 0 out 123 1989 2000 1.460   37 37 26 15 12  2  0  4  41  0  0  2  8 .462 .460 1.000
5      I    Hank Greenberg 0 out 123 1933 1947 1.433   33 32 28 23 11  2  1  4  46  0  0  3  3 .393 .469  .964
6           Alex Rodriguez 0 out 123 1996 2016 1.417   60 60 48 53 24  2  0  6  67  0  0  4  8 .500 .500  .917
7             Brian McCann 0 out 123 2006 2019 1.413   40 40 27 26 14  3  0  3  41  0  0  4  3 .519 .450  .963
8      I       Rusty Staub 0 out 123 1963 1984 1.406   51 51 39 36 19  5  1  4  63  0  0  2  4 .487 .431  .974
9              Bobby Abreu 0 out 123 1997 2012 1.400   35 35 24 42 11  4  0  3  45  0  0  3  5 .458 .400 1.000
10            Eddie Murray 0 out 123 1977 1997 1.357   75 73 50 47 24  6  0  6  85  0  0  5  3 .480 .397  .960
11             Carlos Pena 0 out 123 2001 2013 1.342   30 30 19 22  8  3  1  1  30  0  0  7  8 .421 .500  .842
12     I      Bill Skowron 0 out 123 1954 1967 1.331   31 31 27 21 13  3  0  2  41  0  0  2  3 .482 .516  .815
13           J.D. Martinez 0 out 123 2011 2022 1.323   30 30 23 17  9  4  0  3  33  0  0  1  4 .391 .367  .957
14            Bill Buckner 0 out 123 1971 1989 1.317   32 31 24 25 14  6  0  0  38  0  0  1  0 .583 .484  .833
15            Frank Thomas 0 out 123 1990 2008 1.315   45 45 28 48 14  5  0  2  47  0  0  5  2 .500 .422  .893
16     I       Henry Aaron 0 out 123 1955 1975 1.309   54 53 40 55 18  2  0  5  60  0  0  4  6 .450 .434  .875
17             David Ortiz 0 out 123 1997 2016 1.288   39 40 37 44 17  6  1  2  45  0  0  1  4 .460 .450  .838
18     I     George Foster 0 out 123 1971 1986 1.283   43 44 35 26 17  1  1  3  47  0  0  3  7 .486 .455  .829
19               Mo Vaughn 0 out 123 1991 2002 1.282   35 36 28 22 10  0  0  5  40  0  0  3 10 .357 .389  .893
20             David Segui 0 out 123 1990 2004 1.275   30 30 24 14 11  4  0  2  29  0  0  1  4 .458 .400  .875
21             Mike Piazza 0 out 123 1992 2007 1.272   44 43 34 29 13  4  0  4  47  0  0  5  3 .382 .419  .853
22     I         Ron Santo 0 out 123 1960 1974 1.271   41 40 28 22 13  4  0  2  41  0  0  5  3 .464 .450  .821
23           Travis Fryman 0 out 123 1991 2002 1.260   32 32 25 24 14  2  0  1  37  0  0  2  4 .560 .500  .760
24            Jermaine Dye 0 out 123 1996 2009 1.258   36 34 26 21 10  3  0  3  36  0  0  4  8 .385 .412  .846
25     I      Joe DiMaggio 0 out 123 1936 1951 1.254   59 59 54 35 22  4  1  5  75  0  0  5  1 .407 .458  .796

I think the split data gets less complete prior to WWII, and isn't available at all before 1901ish.

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I had never noticed until very recently that sac bunts weren’t included in the denominator of OBP.  I imagine the rationale of why sac flies are included but sac bunts are not, is that most sac files are thought to be plays where the batter was trying to get a hit, whereas most sac bunts are truly just an effort to give yourself up to advance the runner.  But if that’s true, why aren’t sac flies counted as at bats when calculating batting average?  Oh well, it’s mostly rounding error level of significance.  

In Eddie’s case, I think you’d say the large number of sac flies was a consequence of his approach.   He holds the major league record for sac flies, with 128.   He was very good at trading an out for a run in situations where getting the run was more important than losing the out.
 

I think there are some cases where sac flies made a difference in who won the batting title.

Eddie hit a sac fly once every 35 PAs in high leverage situations, and once every 257 PAs in low leverage situations.

Edited September 19, 2022 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Jagwar said:

 

If I'm reading Baseball Reference correctly, the dude slashed 480/397/960/1357 with the bases loaded and zero outs. 24 hits, 5 BB and 18 SF... 6 grand slams... 85 RBIs in 73 plate appearances. Pretty sure it was a better assumption than most that Eddie was going to get at least one run in.

Just drilling down on that.  In 73 PA, he had 18 sac flies.  That’s a rather incredible ratio.   He also walked 5 times.  And, he had 24 hits.   So right there, that’s 47 times out of 73 PA that at least one run scored, or 64% of the time. That doesn’t include any runs that scored on ground balls he hit.   

[DrungoHazewood]

Trailers in OPS with bases loaded, nobody out, min 30 PA:

Rk     I            Player     Split From   To   OPS G GS PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP   SLG
1            Jason Varitek 0 out 123 1998 2011  .291   38 38 30 24  3  1  0  0  18  0  0  3 11 .100 .158  .133
2             Bill Freehan 0 out 123 1963 1975  .347   30 31 26 10  4  0  0  0  13  0  0  2  8 .154 .194  .154
3               Will Clark 0 out 123 1986 2000  .351   30 30 23 18  4  1  0  0  17  0  0  0  7 .174 .133  .217
4           Jeff Francoeur 0 out 123 2005 2016  .377   37 38 30 20  4  1  0  0  18  0  0  2  6 .133 .211  .167
5                Jim Thome 0 out 123 1992 2012  .399   44 44 36 44  6  1  0  0  26  0  0  2 17 .167 .205  .194
6                Matt Kemp 0 out 123 2006 2020  .401   31 31 25 16  3  0  0  1  15  0  0  1  9 .120 .161  .240
7               Derek Bell 0 out 123 1992 2000  .422   35 35 31 17  6  0  0  0  23  0  0  1  6 .194 .229  .194
8                Fred Lynn 0 out 123 1975 1989  .432   33 33 24 25  3  0  0  1  26  0  0  3  3 .125 .182  .250
9            Yadier Molina 0 out 123 2004 2021  .462   35 35 30 26  7  0  0  0  23  0  0  1  2 .233 .229  .233
10     I        Joe Gordon 0 out 123 1938 1950  .475   41 40 36 26  5  1  0  1  27  0  0  4  4 .139 .225  .250
11     I      Irish Meusel 0 out 123 1918 1926  .506   30 30 22 17  5  1  0  0  23  0  0  2  1 .227 .233  .273
12             Eric Chavez 0 out 123 1999 2013  .522   31 31 27 16  7  1  0  0  17  0  0  0  7 .259 .226  .296
13     I     Frank Malzone 0 out 123 1957 1965  .527   31 32 26 17  7  1  0  0  18  0  0  0  2 .269 .219  .308
14     I       Bill Dickey 0 out 123 1929 1946  .531   38 36 31 23  7  0  0  0  30  0  0  4  1 .226 .306  .226
15     I  Roberto Clemente 0 out 123 1955 1972  .538   31 31 25 36  6  1  0  0  18  0  0  2  8 .240 .258  .280
16     I       Bobby Doerr 0 out 123 1938 1951  .541   45 46 43 36  8  0  1  1  36  0  0  3  3 .186 .239  .302
17     I    Ted Kluszewski 0 out 123 1948 1961  .550   34 34 32 16  7  1  0  1  30  0  0  0  3 .219 .206  .344
18           Graig Nettles 0 out 123 1969 1988  .550   45 45 36 34  9  2  0  0  27  0  0  2  7 .250 .244  .306
19     I       Ben Chapman 0 out 123 1930 1941  .562   33 33 27 36  6  1  0  0  27  0  0  4  4 .222 .303  .259
20               Rod Carew 0 out 123 1967 1985  .573   33 32 24 37  6  1  0  0  20  0  0  3  3 .250 .281  .292
21          Ryan Zimmerman 0 out 123 2006 2021  .583   33 32 24 19  7  1  0  0  22  0  0  1 10 .292 .250  .333
22            Torii Hunter 0 out 123 1999 2015  .592   37 37 28 33  8  1  0  0  26  0  0  2  2 .286 .270  .321
23            Carlton Fisk 0 out 123 1972 1992  .593   37 37 31 35  8  2  0  0  24  0  0  1  6 .258 .270  .323
24          Andre Thornton 0 out 123 1974 1987  .594   39 40 31 21  6  1  0  2  30  0  0  1  7 .194 .175  .419
25             Nelson Cruz 0 out 123 2006 2022  .602   36 36 29 18  7  3  0  0  22  0  0  2  9 .241 .257  .345

Seven HOFers and a number of others who could be.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just drilling down on that.  In 73 PA, he had 18 sac flies.  That’s a rather incredible ratio.   He also walked 5 times.  And, he had 24 hits.   So right there, that’s 47 times out of 73 PA that at least one run scored, or 64% of the time. That doesn’t include any runs that scored on ground balls he hit.   

Eddie appears to be the all time leader in bases loaded sac flies, with 42 in 302 PAs.

Oddly, both Bret Boone and Bob Boone had 25 bases loaded sac flies.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think there are some cases where sac flies made a difference in who won the batting title.

Eddie hit a sac fly once every 35 PAs in high leverage situations, and once every 257 PAs in low leverage situations.

That might be a misleading stat since having a runner on 3B and less than two out is almost by definition a higher leverage situation than other situations.   You can’t hit a sac fly with the bases empty.

One thing I noticed from your list of players with a high OPS with the bases loaded and nobody out, is that Eddie had far more PA in that situation than the others on the list.  He was at 73, next highest was 60, most were under 50.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That might be a misleading stat since having a runner on 3B and less than two out is almost by definition a higher leverage situation than other situations.   You can’t hit a sac fly with the bases empty.

One thing I noticed from your list of players with a high OPS with the bases loaded and nobody out, is that Eddie had far more PA in that situation than the others on the list.  He was at 73, next highest was 60, most were under 50.

 

Gehrig is the leader in bases loaded, no out PAs with 81, Eddie is next with 73.  Gehrig hit .343/.420/.716 in those situations.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gehrig is the leader in bases loaded, no out PAs with 81, Eddie is next with 73.  Gehrig hit .343/.420/.716 in those situations.

I wonder why Eddie was up in those situations so often.  It’s not like he played for amazing offensive teams throughout his career.   Gehrig had about 3000 fewer PA than Eddie and still was up in that situation more often, but you kind of understand it considering the teams he played on.  

Who else is near the top of that list in PA?
 

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wonder why Eddie was up in those situations so often.  It’s not like he played for amazing offensive teams throughout his career.   Gehrig had about 3000 fewer PA than Eddie and still was up in that situation more often, but you kind of understand it considering the teams he played on.  

Who else is near the top of that list in PA?
 

Whole list here. Gehrig, Murray, Simmons, Kent, Stephens, McGriff, ARod, DiMaggio, Delgado, Ott are the top 10.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Whole list here. Gehrig, Murray, Simmons, Kent, Stephens, McGriff, ARod, DiMaggio, Delgado, Ott are the top 10.

Hmmm, there’s a couple of players listed (Eddie included) who have more games than PA with bases loaded nobody out.  I wonder what accounts for the games without a plate appearance?

Another amazing thing I noticed is that with bases loaded and nobody out, Eddie only struck out 3 times in 73 PA.  He was damned sure gonna get that bat on the ball!

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hmmm, there’s a couple of players listed (Eddie included) who have more games than PA with bases loaded nobody out.  I wonder what accounts for the games without a plate appearance?

I think it has to be PB/WP/SB/CS/Pickoff/Balk while they were up that either ended the inning or the game.  If I had a nickel for every time I saw a triple steal with nobody out in the bottom of the 17th...

Edited September 19, 2022 by DrungoHazewood