Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[LookinUp]

On 9/24/2022 at 10:06 PM, EddeeEddee said:

Can't stand watching him at the plate.  He can't take strike 3 with the bases loaded and nobody out the way he just did -- and then complain about the call.  It was clearly a strike.  He looked like a fool there, and a decent hitter would have protected the plate.  Maybe he brings back memories of Mark Belanger, but it's silly to think he's the starter for years to come with so many great hitting shortstops emerging these days.

Honestly, this is the bottom line. He's a low OBP guy who you hope can have extended hot streaks while playing great defense. This year he's ~20% below league average offensively.

Ortiz and Henderson are likely to have offensive floors similar to Mateo's observed ceiling while still having very good or better defense to fall back on.

This team is still 1-2 years away from jettisoning the good but low OBP players from regime's past. That includes Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle. It also includes Mateo, even though he's not from the old regime. While we may not move on from all of them, that type of player is not long for this team. They will be pushed aside by guys who see more pitches per at bat and carry a better OBP. I think we all need to get used to that idea.

Edited September 27, 2022 by LookinUp

[Pickles]

34 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Honestly, this is the bottom line. He's a low OBP guy who you hope can have extended hot streaks while playing great defense. This year he's ~20% below league average offensively.

Ortiz and Henderson are likely to have offensive floors similar to Mateo's observed ceiling while still having very good or better defense to fall back on.

This team is still 1-2 years away from jettisoning the good but low OBP players from regime's past. That includes Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle. It also includes Mateo, even though he's not from the old regime. While we may not move on from all of them, that type of player is not long for this team. They will be pushed aside by guys who see more pitches per at bat and carry a better OBP. I think we all need to get used to that idea.

Yeah, I'm fine with that.  Nobody wants to have a SS hit like Mateo even if we acknowledge that his glove has a ton of value.  I think where people differ is the timeline.

[jamalshw]

Mateo is one of my favorite players to watch on this team...when he's going well. The Mateo we saw in July and especially August was fantastic and a blast to watch. While even in his best month his OBP was .327, I do think there's enough positive value with Mateo's defense, speed and occasional pop, that if he's producing at a .300 OBP+ clip, he's a starting caliber SS on a good team.

Of course, he's at .267 OBP and showed just enough hot flashes this year to allow you to dream on him. That said, the depth we have in the infield allows us to upgrade. I wouldn't mind seeing him on the team in 2023 as a utility infielder, but if his speed and defense can net something, I wouldn't mind seeing him dealt either. 

[LookinUp]

I think the positives that people here point out about Mateo are true. It's also the reason he should have decent trade value this offseason. 

He's not a scrub. He's a decent player with decent value. I think we have better in house, and that he's worth more to this franchise by using his value to acquire value where we have more pressing needs.

[RZNJ]

Kind of hard to believe he managed an .880 OPS for a 50 game stretch.   I remember at the beginning of that streak he also was able to strike out only 3 times in 35 PA or something like that.   The base hit to RF last night, although not hit that hard, was good to see.  It's obvioiusly not as easy as it sounds or Mateo would be doing it but what he initially changed was waiting on the ball and allowing his swing path to cover the outside part of the plate.   His instincts are to open his hips up early and try to pull the ball and that's what makes him succeptible to anything outside but even moreso to the breaking pitch.   Unfortunately, he's not even hitting inside half fastballs and hanging breaking pitches right now.

Edited September 27, 2022 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've never seen any evidence that debuting later moves your peak later.  Most of the time a later debut just means you weren't good enough to play in the majors at an earlier age.  Reaction times, speed, quickness will all decline with age no matter when you hit the Majors.  Those things all probably peak in one's early 20s, and experience is keeping you from declining much earlier.

Let’s stipulate that a later debut often reflects on talent, and that physical skills begin deteriorating even in the early-mid 20’s.   I still think it’s logical/plausible that a hitter who’s had 1000-1500 at bats is better able to hit major league pitching than someone who’s just reaching the majors, at least for a few years until the decline of physical skill outweighs the benefit of more experience.  I just don’t know if it’s been studied. 

[DrungoHazewood]

21 hours ago, LookinUp said:

This team is still 1-2 years away from jettisoning the good but low OBP players from regime's past. That includes Mullins, Hays and Mountcastle. It also includes Mateo, even though he's not from the old regime. While we may not move on from all of them, that type of player is not long for this team. They will be pushed aside by guys who see more pitches per at bat and carry a better OBP. I think we all need to get used to that idea.

Is that really likely, jettisoning all the low OBP players?  This year's Astros have won 102 games and are as analytically-inclined as anyone and have five players with 200+ PAs and an OBP less than .305.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is that really likely, jettisoning all the low OBP players?  This year's Astros have won 102 games and are as analytically-inclined as anyone and have five players with 200+ PAs and an OBP less than .305.

You obviously can't have a full team with high OBP guys. I mean, it'd be nice, but it's not always possible. The Astros just let a SS walk and went with a D first guy. Catcher is also low OBP. Still, as a team their OBP is .320 while the O's is .306. 

Given the option, the O's will go for higher OBP guys. They're training it. Now will they keep Mountcastle if he rakes and has a lot of power? Of course. Will Mullins D make it harder to replace him? Sure. I'd still wager those types will be moved out when options exist to do so.

And that brings us back to Mateo and the fact that he has better OBP types on the come behind him. I think he's gone.

[terpoh]

4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Is that really likely, jettisoning all the low OBP players?  This year's Astros have won 102 games and are as analytically-inclined as anyone and have five players with 200+ PAs and an OBP less than .305.

I'm hopeful that Mountcastle will continue to develop and will settle around .325 or better OBP most years as a result of a higher batting average but also hopefully with an improved batting eye as well. 

[Moose Milligan]

31 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I'm hopeful that Mountcastle will continue to develop and will settle around .325 or better OBP most years as a result of a higher batting average but also hopefully with an improved batting eye as well. 

I think that .325 OBP is a solid range for him.  His hit charts for this year show that he's really used all fields well but I'd still like to see him go to the opposite field even more.  

He's still in the 9th percentile for chase rate.  I think we all like to dream on him when he's hitting well and hope that there's a next level of untapped potential that can turn him into a superstar but, IMO, we're going to have to live with his highs and lows.

Good news is that he's in the 89th percentile for exit velocity and in the 85th percentile for hard hit%.  91st percentile for xBA and 97th for xSLG.  People seem to think he's been a bit unlucky this year, I would tend to agree.  Here's hoping he can keep these rates next year and maybe we'll really have something.

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Moose Milligan

[Sports Guy]

Mountcastle has hit into a ton of bad luck this year and the wall has definitely hurt him.  

[LookinUp]

23 hours ago, RZNJ said:

His instincts ...

I personally think it's muscle memory more than instincts. I think the fascinating thing will be to see if the O's can get some of these vets to train a new muscle memory. Santander seems to have a little bit. When Mountcastle's on it looks like he has, but that huge slump raises questions. Hays, not so much. 

And then there's pitch recognition and swinging at mostly only good pitches. Is that muscle memory or instincts? Is it trainable for an adult? I have no idea.

[Aristotelian]

53 minutes ago, terpoh said:

I'm hopeful that Mountcastle will continue to develop and will settle around .325 or better OBP most years as a result of a higher batting average but also hopefully with an improved batting eye as well. 

Always good to hope, but Mountcastle this year looks very similar to last year (.306 vs .309) except with fewer HR (possibly due to the wall). 

Santander is hitting .325 this year at Age 27 despite career around .300 so you never know. Then again I'm not sure if .325 is just random noise for Santander or something he will sustain. 

[terpoh]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Always good to hope, but Mountcastle this year looks very similar to last year (.306 vs .309) except with fewer HR (possibly due to the wall). 

Santander is hitting .325 this year at Age 27 despite career around .300 so you never know. Then again I'm not sure if .325 is just random noise for Santander or something he will sustain. 

His numbers have been similar but he has also had a lot of bad luck which would certainly push him higher in BA and OBP if those reverse. Just the eye test but he has looked more selective recently as well. Maybe a small sample size, maybe a trend in the right direction.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think that .325 OBP is a solid range for him.  His hit charts for this year show that he's really used all fields well but I'd still like to see him go to the opposite field even more.  

He's still in the 9th percentile for chase rate.  I think we all like to dream on him when he's hitting well and hope that there's a next level of untapped potential that can turn him into a superstar but, IMO, we're going to have to live with his highs and lows.

Fine, but the lows need to get shorter.  You can’t have him disappear for a couple of months at a time.