Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[Aristotelian]

24 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand that.  But again, I'm not looking to maximize Urias' individual value, defensive or not, I'm looking to maximize the defensive value of my entire team.

Ugh, you are talking in circles. If he isn't a plus defensive 2B, he would only help the team if he has a plus bat, which he has not this year. If he hits like this year, he is probably a 1-2 WAR guy at 2B. That's not terrible but I think we will have better options at 2B, or at least ones worth trying before handing it to Urias.

[RZNJ]

33 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand that.  But again, I'm not looking to maximize Urias' individual value, defensive or not, I'm looking to maximize the defensive value of my entire team.

If you really wanted to do that you’d have Ortiz at 2B.   Tony thinks a gg caliber 2B out of the gate. 56 career games at 2B show Urías to be average there, if I’m reading the stats right.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Elias traded Lopez for two reasons.  1)  he didn't think the O's were a playoff team,  2) he had Bautista, Perez and Tate all pitching well in late relief.    

Westburg and Ortiz have not played a day in the majors. It might be a little soon to think the Elias would  trade Urias or Mateo this off season.  Maybe at the deadline if things go well next year.

I guess he doesn’t think we are going to be a contender next year either.  Every player he acquired was at High A or lower and a long shot to make a difference in 2023.   
 

He saw a chance to trade a current asset at a high price and improve the  overall talent in the organization.  We had depth in the bullpen but we didn’t really have a replacement for Lopez.  We can trade Mateo and/or Urías, get talent, AND replace each of them with top prospects who have a good chance to match their current production with the upside to be better.   I’d be very surprised if both Urías and Mateo are Orioles when ST starts.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I guess he doesn’t think we are going to be a contender next year either.  Every player he acquired was at High A or lower and a long shot to make a difference in 2023.   
 

He saw a chance to trade a current asset at a high price and improve the  overall talent in the organization.  We had depth in the bullpen but we didn’t really have a replacement for Lopez.  We can trade Mateo and/or Urías, get talent, AND replace each of them with top prospects who have a good chance to match their current production with the upside to be better.   I’d be very surprised if both Urías and Mateo are Orioles when ST starts.

On the trade front I think it depends on if Elias can get established players back in trade for something he feels he can afford to trade away.   He is in a different position now then he was last off season.   Last year he was a last placed team.  Now he has a .500ish team that he needs to get better.  

We have not seen Elias in this position before so I don't think anyone knows (may including himself) what will happen. Trade vs FA vs prospect(s) promotion are all in play.

[Pickles]

46 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Ugh, you are talking in circles. If he isn't a plus defensive 2B, he would only help the team if he has a plus bat, which he has not this year. If he hits like this year, he is probably a 1-2 WAR guy at 2B. That's not terrible but I think we will have better options at 2B, or at least ones worth trying before handing it to Urias.

No, he helps our team at 2b because he's replacing Odor.

I mean, I gotta be honest, fellas: We literally just spent an entire season playing Odor everyday at 2b, because that was probably the best option in org, until Henderson was deemed ready.

I know we have some nice infield prospects in the system.  I don't really feel comfortable trading away guys right now and just handing 2 spots to rookies.  I don't want to be a broken thumb, or broken ankle, or busted prospect (and I like all of you really like Ortiz and Westburg, but neither is guranteed, and it's seems highly probable that both won't be immediate 2-3 win players as rookies) from having to go back to playing a guy like Odor.

I'm not saying Urias needs to start.  I'm not even saying Mateo needs to start.  I'm saying Westburg has every opportunity to beat out Urias for 2b next year from day one.  But I"m not trading Urias till he does that.  I'm not worried about any "lost" value that Urias will take from such a turn of events.  I prefer the security.

[Pickles]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you really wanted to do that you’d have Ortiz at 2B.   Tony thinks a gg caliber 2B out of the gate. 56 career games at 2B show Urías to be average there, if I’m reading the stats right.

I want to see more from Ortiz next year at AAA.  Probably at least a month.  But I guess I could see scenarios where he just absolutely destroyed ST and he started OD.  But I want to see it.

After that, he has every chance to beat out anybody on the big league roster if he can.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

No, he helps our team at 2b because he's replacing Odor.

I mean, I gotta be honest, fellas: We literally just spent an entire season playing Odor everyday at 2b, because that was probably the best option in org, until Henderson was deemed ready.

 

They played Odor because Elias didn't want to expend any resources (prospects or money) on a 2B this season.  He picked up a veteran stopgap for the minimum.

[Jagwar]

I came late to the party. Great posts all around. Here is my humble take:

1. Mateo's trade value is much higher than it was before this season. I think a team will overpay for him. Maybe he's included in a trade for pitching?
2. Ortiz has looked elite for 3 months... After looking meh for 3 months. He very well may be able to replace Mateo. But what is the plan B if not?
3. If Westburg has a good Spring, bring him up as a utility guy. Find him a first baseman's mitt and teach him to play there. 
4. Norby looks like a stud hitter. Simple compact swing with power. Can he play in positions other than 2B to increase his value?
5. Alex Lifeson is seriously underappreciated as a guitarist. Top 10 all-time IMO

[Jagwar]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They played Odor because Elias didn't want to expend any resources (prospects or money) on a 2B this season.  He picked up a veteran stopgap for the minimum.

Yes. And he doesn't have to do that this offseason. But that doesn't mean that he won't sign a 2B this offseason. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I came late to the party. Great posts all around. Here is my humble take:

1. Mateo's trade value is much higher than it was before this season. I think a team will overpay for him. Maybe he's included in a trade for pitching?
2. Ortiz has looked elite for 3 months... After looking meh for 3 months. He very well may be able to replace Mateo. But what is the plan B if not?
3. If Westburg has a good Spring, bring him up as a utility guy. Find him a first baseman's mitt and teach him to play there. 
4. Norby looks like a stud hitter. Simple compact swing with power. Can he play in positions other than 2B to increase his value?
5. Alex Lifeson is seriously underappreciated as a guitarist. Top 10 all-time IMO

Rush fans are as bad as Tool fans.

Nothing about Rush is underrated, except Caress of Steel.

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Sports Guy]

If you were advocating and happy for a Lopez trade, you should feel the same about Mateo.

[Pickles]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They played Odor because Elias didn't want to expend any resources (prospects or money) on a 2B this season.  He picked up a veteran stopgap for the minimum.

Right, because they didn't have anything in house.  They still don't, beyond Urias.  That's the point.

Rookies of Ortiz and Westburg's status, that is to say non-elite, should be given the opportunity to win jobs.  Productive young players on sensible contracts should not be shipped out to clear spots for said rookies until they are outplayed.

If Urias and Mateo get played into a utility role, that's a good thing.  That's good for the team.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Pickles

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

If you were advocating and happy for a Lopez trade, you should feel the same about Mateo.

I disagree with that.  I don't think Mateo's due for regression.

[Jagwar]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rush fans are as bad as Tool fans.

Nothing about Rush is underrated, except Caress of Steel.

 

I typically ignore C of S like it never happened. 

But listen to side  1 of Moving Pictures. Epic. 

[owknows]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s all the components to the equation.  If you can get more for Westburg or Ortiz than you can get for Mateo or Urias, you have to consider whether the player you are adding is a bigger upgrade at some other spot than whatever you are losing by sticking with Mateo and Urias and trading one of Westburg or Ortiz.  

Anyway, it’s all hypothetical.  I’m not one to speculate much on what Elias will do trade-wise.  He’ll have his own ideas about the relative merits of these four and anyone they could get in exchange.  
 

I think you're touching on an interesting subject... but maybe for reasons over and above those being kicked around in this thread.

Elias has drafted well. He has of course played the value odds... drafting position players preferentially.. and has thus filled the conveyor belt with a progression of high quality prospects in the middle and left of the infield. At some point this is going to turn into Lucille Ball trying to manage the manufacturing line at the chocolate factory. Things are going to start falling on the floor soon, unless we start dealing some of these guys.

The relative success of Mateo and to a lesser extent Urias only complicates matters. These guys were supposed to be place holders. The plan didn't consider the possibility that they would market-outperform.

So now there's a slow motion 25 car pile-up starting to unfold between 2B, SS, and 3B. Not only do you have Mateo and Urias... but you added a stellar Henderson... and you have Westburg and Ortiz on the precipice... and Norby is coming at speed (and that kid's got no brakes). And given all the other breathtaking developments, Prieto and Hernaiz are still progressing... followed by Benscome, Max Wagner, Jackson Holliday and Carter Young.

There's a good chance that more than half these guys are above average MLB players.

The organization has a legitimate deficit at 1B and DH on the big club, but I think you're already pushing Mayo, and probably Wagner in that direction. But even if you do that.. there's a serious logjam on the horizon. I think Elias intentionally chooses the better odds of position players with his high round picks... but I think he's maybe a little more successful than others have been. So we have a problem coming. It's a good problem to have.... but a problem nevertheless.

The front office is going to have to start rolling some of these guys for pitching.... and if they're smart 1B and DH prospects. And soon. So I'm guessing Urias goes in the offseason, and Mateo gets cashed in at the deadline next year (assuming he backs up his performance next season). I like Mateo a lot...  but there a more well-rounded players coming.