Wins Above Average, by position

[Frobby]

SP -1.2

RP +4.4

C  +1.7

1B -0.7

2B -1.7

3B +0.4

SS +1.4

LF -0.2

CF +1.6

RF -0.1

DH +0.5

PH -0.1

Upgrading 2B and the starting pitching are the obvious top priorities.   The question is whether to upgrade 2B internally, or acquire another infielder.   Generally, the O’s have a lot of thinking to do about where they can expect internal improvement and where they need to get outside help.

 

[Aristotelian]

Back of napkin, this adds up to about 6, making us on track for 88 wins, quite a bit above our actual tally of 83-84 (depending on the final two games). Does that suggest we are better than our record and would be expected a few more wins without improvement? We currently have slight negative run differential so it is arguable we are outperforming our talent and need more like 8-9 more wins just to get to 90 win territory. 

Grayson should be worth a couple wins. Sign a FA top of rotation guy for a couple more. Means might be good for another extra win in the second half. 

I think we can upgrade infield internally first with Westburg, Urias, JoeyO, and Vavra all options to be better than Odor. If they all struggle, maybe look to trade for someone. 

Full year of Adley could also give an incremental boost at C. 

Cowser and Hall would be candidates to give us some incremental improvement, but neither can be counted on. 

I'm still focusing on signing a veteran starting pitcher, bullpen arm, and backup C. We might need more but we can get it at the trade deadline.

[MarCakes21]

Jean Segura, Kolton Wong, and Adam Frazier don't instill significantly more confidence than Westburg/Ortiz would with Urias in play as well (assuming Henderson is at 3B or SS).

Focus on SP via FA, which should keep the RP strong if you transfer Wells/Voth back to the pen.  See if you can upgrade 1B/DH potentially via a trade, and if that doesn't stick, you've got what you've got.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Back of napkin, this adds up to about 6, making us on track for 88 wins, quite a bit above our actual tally of 83-84 (depending on the final two games). Does that suggest we are better than our record and would be expected a few more wins without improvement? We currently have slight negative run differential so it is arguable we are outperforming our talent and need more like 8-9 more wins just to get to 90-win territory.

It does suggest that we are better than our record, but I don’t believe that.   

[btdart20]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It does suggest that we are better than our record, but I don’t believe that.   

I suspect that is the AL East factor.  It’s not your average division.

SP - wildcard IMO

RP - strength but questions around sustainability 

C - clear strength 

1B - positive regression to above average 

2B - nowhere to go but up.  Weakness but plenty of upside options.

3B/SS - I’m packaging these because Gunnar…. He’s the reason these combined positions improve regardless of where he plays (even if Mateo is SS and regresses or if Urias is 3B and regresses).

LF - Weakness but some options
CF - strength with no depth

RF - Weakness but some options

TOR and COF seems like the external FA spots.

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

I suspect that is the AL East factor.  It’s not your average division.

SP - wildcard IMO

RP - strength but questions around sustainability 

C - clear strength 

1B - positive regression to above average 

2B - nowhere to go but up.  Weakness but plenty of upside options.

3B/SS - I’m packaging these because Gunnar…. He’s the reason these combined positions improve regardless of where he plays (even if Mateo is SS and regresses or if Urias is 3B and regresses).

LF - Weakness but some options
CF - strength with no depth

RF - Weakness but some options

TOR and COF seems like the external FA spots.

Say you have to pick one, given resources.  You have $60 mil per year to spend annually for the next 3 years.  Which way do you go to improve?

I say this because I believe while we will spend, we won't see us spending something like $100-150 mil more annually, knowing we have expenses coming through Arb in the next 2-3 years (Mullins/Mountcastle/Hays/Santander) and then guys we might want to lock up long term in a similar timeframe (Rutschman/Henderson).

[justcompete]

I feel like this is why we need to continue to demonstrate patience in 23'.

We need another year to determine who are impact players in our system and who are the role players.

It would only make sense to sign or trade for impact players at this stage in the rebuild.  I do not feel like we should cash in our pipeline chips yet- I feel like we need another year on many of these guys to see what they can become.

Signing better role players might block guys in the minors-especially in the outfield.

If we can acquire impacts players then by all means do that- 1-3 SP or 1-4 hitter- regardless of position then sure.  But does a Mancini type signing really help us win in the new window.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

SP -1.2

RP +4.4

C  +1.7

1B -0.7

2B -1.7

3B +0.4

SS +1.4

LF -0.2

CF +1.6

RF -0.1

DH +0.5

PH -0.1

Upgrading 2B and the starting pitching are the obvious top priorities.   The question is whether to upgrade 2B internally, or acquire another infielder.   Generally, the O’s have a lot of thinking to do about where they can expect internal improvement and where they need to get outside help.

 

Wait, where did these numbers come from? I know Mountcastle didn't have a great season, but -0.7 WAR for 1B seems low, even if Nevin and Aguilar were the others.

[now]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The question is whether to upgrade 2B internally, or acquire another infielder.  

I'm shocked you question this position, as I see infield as our most abundant quality depth position (Urias, Mateo, Vavra, Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Hall, Prieto, Mayo, Hernaiz, Holliday... not necessarily in that order). So maybe the question comes down to how flexible those players are to move around the infield? Or are you thinking one-year stopgap?

[Aglets]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, where did these numbers come from? I know Mountcastle didn't have a great season, but -0.7 WAR for 1B seems low, even if Nevin and Aguilar were the others.

Mountcastle had a +1.3 WAR this year.   And that is with 122 starts at first.   Seems like the other 1B men would have to be really bad to make that in the negatives overall.

[Moose Milligan]

From all of the guys in the system, I think we've gotta be able to get a guy who can contribute significantly better next year than Odor.  I don't mean to sound too cavalier about it and Odor has set a really low bar to hurdle but I don't see the need to spend on a 2B in free agency.

Wong is 32 next year, but had a 3.2 WAR season this year, Segura is going to be 33 next year and had a 1.9 season, Frazier will be 31 and had a .7 season this year.

I don't know what the market will look line for a 2nd baseman/MI type but I'd be more inclined to go after one of these guys if we didn't have any MI talent in the system.  Worst case scenario, IMO, is that Urias is the OD 2nd baseman with Vavra as the backup.  That means that Westburg, Ortiz, Norby didn't kill it in ST and they're starting the season in the minors.

Urias was 3.6 this year, replacing Odor with him is an instant upgrade that we didn't have to spend extra for.  

[Aglets]

The majority of the remaining starts at 1B appear to have been by Mancini fwiw.

[btdart20]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, where did these numbers come from? I know Mountcastle didn't have a great season, but -0.7 WAR for 1B seems low, even if Nevin and Aguilar were the others.

I'm not sure if Frobby was looking at the position as a hole or using Mountcastle as a general proxy.  But Mountcastle does have a -0.7 WAA on B-Ref.

Ryan Mountcastle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

[Aristotelian]

57 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Wait, where did these numbers come from? I know Mountcastle didn't have a great season, but -0.7 WAR for 1B seems low, even if Nevin and Aguilar were the others.

WAA, not WAR. Replacement level is significantly below average. 

[Tony-OH]

12 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'm not sure if Frobby was looking at the position as a hole or using Mountcastle as a general proxy.  But Mountcastle does have a -0.7 WAA on B-Ref.

Ryan Mountcastle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Rookie Status & More | Baseball-Reference.com

Ah, now that I look back at the title I see he was using WAA vs WAR. Makes more sense now, thanks for the correction. I agree that Mountcastle's performance was certainly below the typical performance of a 1Bman this year. He would certainly be on the trading block for me and I would have both Stowers and Westburg practicing there this off season.