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What Free Agent would you sign?

DocJJ

By DocJJ
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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it’s hard to do it successfully anyway, at any pick and in any round. It’s  a complete crapshoot.  

I don’t care how much money you have, it’s still hard but you can always set yourself up to get guys you like who have fallen.  Keep giving yourself chances.

You are basically saying the only guys who are worth doing this for or will be successful are ones who get a big deal. I’m guessing that’s completely false.

You say that all the time.

It's not accurate, it's not even close to accurate.

If it was a complete crapshoot you could have KOKI the mime making your picks and you'd do just as well as anyone else.

It's more like playing poker, some luck, some skill and if you use marked cards your odds are better but you can still lose.

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Sydnor
Sydnor

If the Orioles signed DeGrom for a $35 million AAV over 5 years, they would lose a second round pick and a fifth round pick under the terms of the CBA, not a first round pick. Also, Verlander can

Jim'sKid26
Jim'sKid26

If I'm signing a FA SP I would go with Verlander. I'd give him 3 years and $120M.  He's already thrown 185 innings this year and he just had an 11K playoff game. None of his metrics indicate that

Frobby
Frobby

All that anyone is saying is that it’s harder to get guys who will be successful when you are picking lower and have less money to spend.  Nobody’s saying it’s impossible.  The statement is obviously

Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You say that all the time.

It's not accurate, it's not even close to accurate.

If it was a complete crapshoot you could have KOKI the mime making your picks and you'd do just as well as anyone else.

It's more like playing poker, some luck, some skill and if you use marked cards your odds are better but you can still lose.

Prove it to me.  Prove that guys who get higher overslots are more successful than regular overslots.  Show me the evidence.

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NedFromYork Major Leaguer Rising Star

NedFromYork

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Verlander 2-3 years and Abreu 2 years, a backup catcher, and  maybe a $2M bullpen arm.  I'm keeping all our young guys and guys in the minors and signing two elite players at high AAV and limited years for each window and trading guys when they become expensive and replacing them with a strong farm.  I want to be good to very good for a long time with something to play for most years.  Maybe we don't win World Series, but we don't get in to a position to have ro rebuild all the time.

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, they could have.

Would they have?

No idea.

Doesn't change the fact that they couldn't have made a Gunnar style pick in the second round without seriously impacting the rest of their draft.

Dodgers pick in the last 5 picks just about every year and still have a top farm system.  Not having a top 10 pick is not an excuse for having a bad draft.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Why does everyone think Abreu is signing for 1-2 years? He just put up a 4 WAR season

Good point.   His homers go from 30 to 15.  His RBI go for 117 to 75 and his WAR goes for 2.6 to 3.9 because he increased his averages.

I guess at 36 I think he is showing some decline and a longer than one year with an option contract has a lot of risk to it.   

But your point is valid.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

36, 37 and 38 just seems pretty risky.

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

Then you have Chris Davis who blow up at  31.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

Posted
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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The two players I can think of who were somewhat  analogous were Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz.  Cruz got a four year deal that went through his age 37 season, but even though that contract was extremely successful, never got another contract that guaranteed multiple years.   Instead he got a one-year contract with a team option that was exercised, then two one-year contracts.   Ortiz at 36, after a .953 OPS season, still settled on a one-year deal.  Then, after a 1.026 OPS season, the Sox gave him a two-year deal.  When that was up, he was given a one-year deal with options.   

Based on those players, I don’t see Abreu getting a three year deal through age 38.   But like I said, you never know.  
 

If you are suggesting that Abreu knows how to beat a drug test then why did he drop from 30 homers to 15?

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