SP Trade Targets Compared

[Aristotelian]

In light of the various offseason agenda threads, I thought it might be interesting to focus in on potential trade targets for SP. SP appears to me by far the most important area for upgrade. The trade market seems like a good option to acquire a #1/#2 starter in exchange for some combination of prospects and expendable veterans (Hays, Urias). I did a screen for SP's on non-contenders with 1-3 years of control and 2+ WAR in 2022. For each guy, I looked up their value on baseballtradevalues.com and came up with a possible package. Here is what I came up with.

Corbin Burnes: 2 years control, 4.1 WAR, 78 trade value [Holliday, Hall, and Westburg]

Ohtani: 1 year control, 9.6 WAR, 65 TV [Holliday, Hall, Urias]

Zac Gallen: 3 years control, 5.1 WAR, 60.7 TV [Holliday, Cowser]

Brady Singer: 3 years control, 4.5 WAR, 47.9 TV [Hall, Cowser, Urias]

Pablo Lopez: 2 years control, 3.0 WAR, 38.7 TV [Mullins or Cowser, Urias]

Brandon Woodruff: 2 years control, 2.7 WAR, 37.8 TV [Hall, Urias]

Merrill Kelly: 2 years control, 3.5 WAR, 8.5 TV [Westburg]

Blake Snell: 1 year control, 2.1 WAR, 6.5 TV [Beavers]

Marcus Stroman: 1 year control w/player option, 2.5 WAR, -11 TV [Prieto and Ryan Watson]

 

Discussion:

I am not convinced Brewers are a match. They did not make the playoffs but they had 86 wins, good for second place in the central. They could be buyers rather than sellers. If they trade Burnes that would be an extreme "Tampa" move and they would want epic return. They probably don't pick up the phone unless Elias starts with Holliday.

Ohtani would fill SP and DH in one fell swoop but comes with only one year of control. They probably also want Holliday (if not Grayson) and that is a huge price to pay for one year. Still, we would be bona fide World Series contenders with Ohtani himself accounting for nearly 10 wins! 

Gallen and Singer are super interesting to me, but with three years of control their teams may want to keep them at least another year. Would probably have to overpay a bit, but boy they would be a great fit for a three year window. If we could get either one of them without sacrificing Holliday, I would be inclined to go for it. Maybe Cowser and Hall gets it done? 

Kelly and Snell are interesting, but Stroman's negative trade value jumps out. Not sure what that's about. He has a $25M player option but he put up a solid 2.5 WAR and we have the payroll flexibility. He wouldn't exactly be a #1 we are looking for, but a solid pitcher at almost no cost in prospects, it would almost be dumb not to make an offer. Could be a MOR option if we decline Lyles. 

Which of these guys/packages do you like for the value? Who am I missing and what do you propose? Thoughts? 

 

[Camden Yards]

Shane Bieber (57.2 Value) for Hall, Westburg, and Mayo(total value of 65.9). Or Urias in there instead of Westburg and  Mayo. The numbers are about even then.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Camden Yards
Added stuff

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Shane Bieber (57.2 Value) for Hall, Westburg, and Mayo(total value of 65.9). Or Urias in there instead of Westburg and  Mayo. The numbers are about even then.

Guardians made the playoffs this year. I don't see them trading Bieber. Definitely not for Hall and 2nd tier prospects.

[CharmCityHokie]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Guardians made the playoffs this year. I don't see them trading Bieber. Definitely not for Hall and 2nd tier prospects.

I agree with this, you're not getting a recent Cy Young winner who just threw 200 IPs and has two years of team control left for Hall, Westburg and Mayo. I like all 3 of our guys, I think they're going to do well and be major leaguers, but I wouldn't pull the trigger on that deal. Just my opinion. 

[Camden Yards]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Guardians made the playoffs this year. I don't see them trading Bieber. Definitely not for Hall and 2nd tier prospects.

Well Cleveland has a history of trading their top pitchers like Kluber, Bauer, Clevinger, and Carrasco. They also traded Lindor recently. If it starts with Holliday, Urias, plus one more- I am good with that. Cleveland will try to make one more run next year or they will trade him just like the others. Bieber will make about 11 million next year which is the same as Lyles. 

[Camden Yards]

18 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

I agree with this, you're not getting a recent Cy Young winner who just threw 200 IPs and has two years of team control left for Hall, Westburg and Mayo. I like all 3 of our guys, I think they're going to do well and be major leaguers, but I wouldn't pull the trigger on that deal. Just my opinion. 

Do you pull the trigger if it’s Holliday, Hall, and Urias? Who says No? 

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Do you pull the trigger if it’s Holliday, Hall, and Urias? Who says No? 

No chance. Bieber’s FB velocity is down.  I would rather take a chance on finding the next Gausman, Rodon, etc. 

[Jim'sKid26]

According to https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/10/15/23406472/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-eligible-brewers-in-2023

"The Milwaukee Brewers have the second-most arbitration-eligible players in the MLB heading into 2023, as Milwaukee’s 18 trails only Tampa Bay’s 19." The total one year salary for all  is projected to be $79.9M.

These include : Brandon Woodruff @ $11 million and Corbin Burnes @ $11.4 million

Now I suspect they nontender some of those guys but they have to consider unloading one of these two starters while they can get a big prospect haul. Each year is one less year of control and they both will be very expensive in 2024. 

I think they will keep Burnes but Woodruff could be had for the right prospect package. I like Burnes better than Woodruff but either one makes the O's better. I think you have to be talking to the Brewcrew if you are ME.

[Camden Yards]

5 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

According to https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/10/15/23406472/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-eligible-brewers-in-2023

"The Milwaukee Brewers have the second-most arbitration-eligible players in the MLB heading into 2023, as Milwaukee’s 18 trails only Tampa Bay’s 19." The total one year salary for all  is projected to be $79.9M.

These include : Brandon Woodruff @ $11 million and Corbin Burnes @ $11.4 million

Now I suspect they nontender some of those guys but they have to consider unloading one of these two starters while they can get a big prospect haul. Each year is one less year of control and they both will be very expensive in 2024. 

I think they will keep Burnes but Woodruff could be had for the right prospect package. I like Burnes better than Woodruff but either one makes the O's better. I think you have to be talking to the Brewcrew if you are ME.

I agree either would make us better. Sign Rodon and trade for Woodruff!! The Brewers seem to need hitters. Would they do Mountcastle and Urias? Do that trade and then sign Rizzo and a backup catcher. 

[Jim'sKid26]

7 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

I agree either would make us better. Sign Rodon and trade for Woodruff!! The Brewers seem to need hitters. Would they do Mountcastle and Urias? Do that trade and then sign Rizzo and a backup catcher. 

They will tender Telez to play 1B. They rotate a lot of guys through DH so Mountcastle is not appealing to them, I suspect. Any team could use Urias, however. I would suspect they will want prospects. Maybe Urias, Hall and Basallo plus a lottery ticket?

Edited November 2, 2022 by Jim'sKid26
Autocorrect is annoying

[CharmCityHokie]

57 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Do you pull the trigger if it’s Holliday, Hall, and Urias? Who says No? 

If I'm Cleveland? Yes, I would probably take that. If I'm the Orioles, no not a chance. It's basically a Dansby Swanson/Shelby Miller trade with Holliday involved. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

According to https://www.brewcrewball.com/2022/10/15/23406472/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-eligible-brewers-in-2023

"The Milwaukee Brewers have the second-most arbitration-eligible players in the MLB heading into 2023, as Milwaukee’s 18 trails only Tampa Bay’s 19." The total one year salary for all  is projected to be $79.9M.

These include : Brandon Woodruff @ $11 million and Corbin Burnes @ $11.4 million

Now I suspect they nontender some of those guys but they have to consider unloading one of these two starters while they can get a big prospect haul. Each year is one less year of control and they both will be very expensive in 2024. 

I think they will keep Burnes but Woodruff could be had for the right prospect package. I like Burnes better than Woodruff but either one makes the O's better. I think you have to be talking to the Brewcrew if you are ME.

Interesting. That article doesn't say anything about Woodruff being available but the salary situation is interesting. I think the price would be high but I would do something around Hall with some combo of Urias/Hays/Vavra/Prieto types. I don't think I would go as high as Holliday.

[Just Regular]

The BTV podcast people reviewing Stearns move to "advisor" status kind of wondered whether MIL might tear down to reorient around Chourio, speculating this offseason could be a seller's opportunity with OAK and CIN having unloaded all their good stuff, and the '22 Phillies energizing all of the 13th - 23rd best teams in baseball.

The Mets were mentioned as a Burnes-Woodruff possible buyer, with a mention that across many seasons, Stearns is kind of sidestepping a moral hazard were here to trade one of them there in his '23 walk year and then join NYM in '24.

I think in the week or two after the World Series whatever Ohtani is or isn't going to signal will be one of the first big pieces of information GM's in the market for good pitching need to learn.

[oriole]

I have a hard time accepting that we’d need to give up 6 years of guys like Holliday and/or Hall for a couple years of a mid-rotation starter. If that’s the price, then just dive into free agency for the impact guys and trade from the positional surplus for lesser needs or depth. Santander or Urias are two guys that I feel like should get someone like Lopez, but if they don’t then I don’t want Lopez. 
 

None of the trades in the OP would be a win for the O’s IMO. There’s too much room in the payroll to sign players to give up the future for such a short sighted approach. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

I have a hard time accepting that we’d need to give up 6 years of guys like Holliday and/or Hall for a couple years of a mid-rotation starter. If that’s the price, then just dive into free agency for the impact guys and trade from the positional surplus for lesser needs or depth. Santander or Urias are two guys that I feel like should get someone like Lopez, but if they don’t then I don’t want Lopez. 
 

None of the trades in the OP would be a win for the O’s IMO. There’s too much room in the payroll to sign players to give up the future for such a short sighted approach. 

I don't think most would consider Bieber a mid-rotation starter.  If you viewed him thusly than you wouldn't give up that package.