What will the O's off season moves be?

[wildcard]

You think picking the Powerball numbers is hard?  Its got nothing of pick the O's moves this off season.   Here are my guesses.

Lyles:  O's decline the option but say they may pursue him in FA.

Abreu:  2/35 plus an option to play DH/1B.  Because he has shown he can hit well as a DH.  His career DH splits are 290/352/493/843. His 2022 DH splits were 330/412/478/891.  

Just because a player can hit does not mean he hits well as a DH.  Remember Mark Trumbo?   His career OPS as a RFer 862.  As a DH 695.   Mountcastle career DH OPS is 733/ 2022 DH OPS 592.  Santander career DH OPS 704/ 2022 DH OPS 642. Pederson career DH OPS 616/ 2022 DH OPS 616.

Clevinger:  2/31 plus an option. He has career numbers that are less hits than inning pitched, and more strikeout than innings pitched.  He had a 4.33 ERA and a 1.198 WHIP in 2022 on his first season back from TJ surgery.   I think Holt and the O's physical trainers can get him back to his career 3.39 ERA and a 1.188 WHIP.

Backup Catcher:  Waiting for the non tenders.  I want someone who hit lefties and is a good defensive catcher.

[ShoelesJoe]

Santander, Mateo, and Norby traded for pitching. Abreu signed for 3/50-ish, no options. Lyles option picked up. No big name FA pitchers signed. 

[Aristotelian]

I agree, outside of Contreras, who will be a starter somewhere, the FA list for C is uninspiring. One guy I like if we could get him cheap is Narvaez. #9 on baseballsavant in framing, decent dWAR numbers. Coming off a down year offensively but overall career .728 OPS/100 OPS+. I think that is exactly what we need from a backup C. He is LH, but Adley should be in the lineup every day so he's going to have to hit RH. 

P is the most important and there are too many interesting strategies to predict what will happen. My dream scenario would be trading for Singer or Gallen without giving up Holliday, but that is probably wishful thinking. I'm not a huge fan of Clevinger. 4.33 might be the new normal for him, in which case he is barely an upgrade over Lyles. K/9 is down. Maybe he improves but hard to count on that. On top of that, he put partying above the team during COVID and that stuff matters to me. 

I think we will make some trades, just not sure who. We need to clear room for Westburg at a minimum, maybe Cowser and Ortiz. That argues for trading some combination of Hays, Urias, and Mateo. Couldn't begin to speculate what we might get back, but C, SP, and bullpen are obviously on the list. 

I do not think we will sign a full time DH. 

 

[Just Regular]

A take from ESPN Schoenfield, in a story where he places BAL 15th (top half!) in his way too early 2023 power rankings:

Baltimore had one of the most surprising, out-of-nowhere seasons in major league history, improving from 52 wins in 2021 to 83 in 2022. You have to love where the Orioles are headed: Adley Rutschman looks like a future MVP candidate, Gunnar Henderson might not be far behind and pitcher Grayson Rodriguez might be ready to help in 2023 -- with 2022 No. 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday now one of the game's top prospects. I do wonder if some of the pitching overachieved this season, especially a bullpen that ranked ninth in ERA but 21st in strikeout rate. The rotation was also just 21st in the majors in ERA with only Jordan Lyles topping 130 innings. Let's hope the Orioles dip into free agency here to help balance out some likely regression.

He guesses the AL East TBR 4th, TOR 8th, NYY 11th, BAL 15th, BOS 23rd.

[EdwinRip]

Re-sign Odor.  Can’t put a price tag on the clubhouse presence.

[Can_of_corn]

20 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Re-sign Odor.  Can’t put a price tag on the clubhouse presence.

Sure you can, $720,000.

[oriole]

If I had to pick only four this would be my preferred offseason. Note in advance that I suck at pretend contracts

Sign Rodon to a 5/120…specifically would be cool if it were front loaded but don’t really know how common or feasible that is. 

Trade Santander and Westburg to Miami for Lopez. The baseball trade values page may say it’s a low ball offer for Lopez, but any more seems a bit much to me.

Assuming no QO, sign Rizzo to a 3/45 deal. Maybe that’s low AAV and too many years. I don’t know, like I said, I not good at this. 

Lastly, without getting cutesy…sign Manaea to the same deal that they gave Lyles. 1/6 with an 11m option and 1m buy out I think it was? 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, outside of Contreras, who will be a starter somewhere, the FA list for C is uninspiring. One guy I like if we could get him cheap is Narvaez. #9 on baseballsavant in framing, decent dWAR numbers. Coming off a down year offensively but overall career .728 OPS/100 OPS+. I think that is exactly what we need from a backup C. He is LH, but Adley should be in the lineup every day so he's going to have to hit RH. 

P is the most important and there are too many interesting strategies to predict what will happen. My dream scenario would be trading for Singer or Gallen without giving up Holliday, but that is probably wishful thinking. I'm not a huge fan of Clevinger. 4.33 might be the new normal for him, in which case he is barely an upgrade over Lyles. K/9 is down. Maybe he improves but hard to count on that. On top of that, he put partying above the team during COVID and that stuff matters to me. 

I think we will make some trades, just not sure who. We need to clear room for Westburg at a minimum, maybe Cowser and Ortiz. That argues for trading some combination of Hays, Urias, and Mateo. Couldn't begin to speculate what we might get back, but C, SP, and bullpen are obviously on the list. 

I do not think we will sign a full time DH. 

 

Signing Clevinger only works if Holt says he can make him better. Otherwise its whoever Holt thinks he can make better.  But I think its a mid tier starter not one of the guys that are aces already.

Edited November 6, 2022 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Signing Clevinger only work if Holt says he can make him better. Otherwise its whoever Holt thinks he can make better.  But I think its a mid tier starter not one of the guys that are aces already.

Agreed, the big market teams can still outbid us on the top tier guys. Spending money just isn't our comparative advantage. Trade is another option but difficult to predict.

[ChosenOne21]

Someone is going to give Abreu three years

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Someone is going to give Abreu three years

Then Abreu will have a choice.  The someone may be a team with a losing record.   He may have to decide between playing for a playoff team for 2 years plus an option vs a losing team for 3 years.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I

 Clevinger put partying above the team during COVID and that stuff matters to me.

I

I misses the report of Clevinger partying that hurt his team.  Can you provide a link?

[ShoelesJoe]

45 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Then Abreu will have a choice.  The someone may be a team with a losing record.   He may have to decide between playing for a playoff team for 2 years plus an option vs a losing team for 3 years.

This will be Abreu’s last payday. I doubt very much he’ll leave money on the table to maybe play for a winner. He’ll sign with whoever guarantees the most money. 

Edited November 6, 2022 by ShoelesJoe

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, EdwinRip said:

Re-sign Odor.  Can’t put a price tag on the clubhouse presence.

This was seriously put forward as a question on Roch’s blog today.  

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This was seriously put forward as a question on Roch’s blog today.  

The only time I read Roch is when someone here links to him.

Stuff like this is why.