FA Target - Jameson Taillon

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You did cherry pick 3.28 for Bradish and have Hall going from 5.93 to 4.00. Hall was 4.48 at AA/AAA last year. 

I agree with you, it is unlikely that we are the highest bidder on Rodon/Degrom/Verlander. If we want a pitcher of that caliber, it probably has to come in trade at significant cost (Holliday?). That might be a move to make closer to the deadline to minimize the cost. 

Anyone that watched Bradish's season should realize how much he improved as the season progressed.  He elevated his game, confidence in his pitches and gave credit to the coaching staff for help him with his pitches, sequencing, and with analytics.  IMO the 2nd half showed how far he has come and its right to expect he will carry that into next year.

I have said that Hall should begin the season at AAA as a starter.  How long it takes for him to refine his command is anyone guess.  But when he does improving his control should make his stuff  more than good enough to lower his ERA to 4.00 in the majors.

I don't expect the O's to sign one of the top 3 FA pitchers nor do I expect Elias to trade Holiday.  Elias has a lot more choices than that.   But I think Bradish, Kremer, Grayson and Hall are in the O's future as starters, any one of which could be a TOR starter sometime  in the future.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Pickles said:

Well, I'm not paying them for what they have done but what they will do, so their career numbers are pretty irrelevant.

Lyles was 90% of the pitcher Taillon was last year; they're basically the same age, and he has been far more durable.  It's incongruous to me that one guy isn't worth 1/10 but the other guy will get 4/56.  In a vacuum, I'd probably prefer Taillon, but such discrepancies in contract status is insane to me.

Career numbers are pretty irrelevant when signing FA's?   Ok.  End of discussion.

As for durability, Taillon got hurt in 2019, had TJ and missed the 2020 season.  In his 5 (of 7) healthy seasons he started.

2016 - 18

2017 - 25

2018 - 32

2021 - 29

2022 - 32

 

Lyles over those same years.

Lyles didn't start more than 10 games in any year from 2015-18 because of inneffectiveness.  

2019 - 28

2020 - 9

2021 - 30

2022 - 32

 

Lyles threw 179 innings last year.  Taillon 177.    Lyles has never had a serious injury but Taillon has made his starts EXCEPT for the TJ injury in 2019.

 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Career numbers are pretty irrelevant when signing FA's?   Ok.  End of discussion.

As for durability, Taillon got hurt in 2019, had TJ and missed the 2020 season.  In his 5 (of 7) healthy seasons he started.

2016 - 18

2017 - 25

2018 - 32

2021 - 29

2022 - 32

 

Lyles over those same years.

Lyles didn't start more than 10 games in any year from 2015-18 because of inneffectiveness.  

2019 - 28

2020 - 9

2021 - 30

2022 - 32

 

Lyles threw 179 innings last year.  Taillon 177.    Lyles has never had a serious injury but Taillon has made his starts EXCEPT for the TJ injury in 2019.

 

Citing what Taillon did 5,6, and 7 years ago is yes, largely irrelevant, when projecting what he is going to do over the next four.

Look at what they did last year- the far more important data point.

Lyles was basically 90% the pitcer Taillon was.  That's got a lot more to do with 2023-26 than what happened in 2015.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Citing what Taillon did 5,6, and 7 years ago is yes, largely irrelevant, when projecting what he is going to do over the next four.

Look at what they did last year- the far more important data point.

Lyles was basically 90% the pitcer Taillon was.  That's got a lot more to do with 2023-26 than what happened in 2015.

Agreed that the 2022 stats mean more than 5-7 years ago.

However, consider OPACY is clearly a better pitching environment than Yankee Stadium.  And Taillon still posted a half run better ERA.  And the differences are in those tight margins.  Lyles gave up 88 ER.  Taillon gave up 77 ER (less than 2 IP difference).  (And OPACY would have lowered that to XX?)  Gotta think that's a few W's and maybe a WC birth.  

[waroriole]

Tyler Anderson signs for 3/39, shaping the mid tier SP market. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

How would you feel if the Orioles signed Taillon and trade for Pablo Lopez?   That's hardly going to blow anyone's doors off but it definitely improves the starting staff and I think that gives you 2 fairly safe additions with some upside.

That plan seems like something that's possible.  I don't see Elias weighing down the O's w/ long SP deals.  Feel free to call me out if he does.  I just don't see even a 4 year deal for a SP.

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Citing what Taillon did 5,6, and 7 years ago is yes, largely irrelevant, when projecting what he is going to do over the next four.

Look at what they did last year- the far more important data point.

Lyles was basically 90% the pitcer Taillon was.  That's got a lot more to do with 2023-26 than what happened in 2015.

What does it mean to say that Lyles was “90% the pitcher Taillon was?”  

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What does it mean to say that Lyles was “90% the pitcher Taillon was?”  

They pitched an almost identical amount of innings and Lyles was worth 1 WAR and Taillon was worth 1.3.  Taillon was better, but they were not dissimilar. 

[Pickles]

41 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agreed that the 2022 stats mean more than 5-7 years ago.

However, consider OPACY is clearly a better pitching environment than Yankee Stadium.  And Taillon still posted a half run better ERA.  And the differences are in those tight margins.  Lyles gave up 88 ER.  Taillon gave up 77 ER (less than 2 IP difference).  (And OPACY would have lowered that to XX?)  Gotta think that's a few W's and maybe a WC birth.  

Yeah, Taillon was a bit better.  It would not have manifested itself in multiple wins.  Lyles was worth 1 WAR and Taillon was worth 1.3.  They were quite similar last year.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

They pitched an almost identical amount of innings and Lyles was worth 1 WAR and Taillon was worth 1.3.  Taillon was better, but they were not dissimilar. 

Last I checked, 1/1.3 = 77%.   That’s rWAR.  By fWAR, 1.4/2.3 = 61%.  

I think the better way look at it is, how many more games would the team win with Taillon rather than Lyles?  By rWAR, 0.3, by fWAR, 0.9.  At $8 mm/win, the salary difference would be either $2.4 mm or $7.2 mm, depending which flavor of WAR you like.   

But I think the bigger question is the multi year commitment, not the salary.   I think if you are comfortable with Taillon’s health, the annual salary is reasonable.  But that’s really the question.  

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Last I checked, 1/1.3 = 77%.   That’s rWAR.  By fWAR, 1.4/2.3 = 61%.  

I think the better way look at it is, how many more games would the team win with Taillon rather than Lyles?  By rWAR, 0.3, by fWAR, 0.9.  At $8 mm/win, the salary difference would be either $2.4 mm or $7.2 mm, depending which flavor of WAR you like.   

But I think the bigger question is the multi year commitment, not the salary.   I think if you are comfortable with Taillon’s health, the annual salary is reasonable.  But that’s really the question.  

 

I think this is fairly pedantic but point granted.

But yeah, their contractual discrepancies is largely of the product of years.  If you wanted to say Lyles is 1/10 and Taillon is 1/15, I'd say that's about right.  The issue is when it becomes 1/10 vs 4/56, and I say that is wildly incongruous.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Honestly, if you look at Taillon's career his floor is right around 2 WAR.   Obviously, 4/56 carriers the injury risk more than poor peformance, I think.    I'd be very happy with 3/36 but I have a feeling the 4/56 is more realistic with Taillon.

How can his floor be 2 WAR when he just had a season less than that?   That doesn’t make any sense.  

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How can his floor be 2 WAR when he just had a season less than that?   That doesn’t make any sense.  

Well, first of all, I said right around 2 WAR.   Fangraphs has him at 2.3 for 2022.   His other full years.

2017 3.2

2018 3.9

2021 1.9

2022 2.3

EXCUUUUUSE  ME!!!!!     

 

And, OH BTW, Fangraphs had Lyles at 1.4 and Taillon at 2.3 so according to them it's ALMOST a 1 WAR difference.  I guess we have to list if it's FWAR or RWAR!

Edited November 15, 2022 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Well, first of all, I said right around 2 WAR.   Fangraphs has him at 2.3 for 2022.   His other full years.

2017 3.2

2018 3.9

2021 1.9

2022 2.3

EXCUUUUUSE  ME!!!!!     

 

And, OH BTW, Fangraphs had Lyles at 1.4 and Taillon at 2.3 so according to them it's ALMOST a 1 WAR difference.  I guess we have to list if it's FWAR or RWAR!

Yeah, I had cited both his rWAR and fWAR just a couple of hours ago but was remembering his rWAR which was 1.3 and forgot that his fWAR was considerably higher.   

Anyway, I’m always hesitant to speak of a floor when discussing pitchers.  Their floors can change very drastically with an injury at any time.  
 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Frobby

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

Yeah, I had linked at both his rWAR and fWAR just a couple of hours ago but was remembering his rWAR which was 1.3 and forgot that his fWAR was considerably higher.   

Anyway, I’m always hesitant to speak of a floor when discussing pitchers.  Their floors can change very drastically with an injury at any time.  
 

 

No doubt.  Taillon has had two TJ surgeries so you never know.    The only time he really has missed in the majors was most of 2019 and all of 2020 because of T.J..   He has not missed time to nagging injuries or recurring injuries.    Obviously, you want to take on the least amount of risk as possible.   I just happen to think, absent of major injury, that Taillon will perform to a certain level with the possibility of more.   I don't think 4/56 is an unacceptable risk for that.   He's 31.  Made all of his starts the last two years and has a history of a solid floor of performance.