FA Target - Jameson Taillon

[Pickles]

Call me crazy but I'd rather have Lyles at 1/10 than any of those three at those suggested contracts.   Those all seem like insane overpays.

[Just Regular]

 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Call me crazy but I'd rather have Lyles at 1/10 than any of those three at those suggested contracts.   Those all seem like insane overpays.

Taillon, according to Fangraphs has twice as much WAR (13.7 to 7) in about half as many career innings.   Lyles is playing it safe.  Taillon is more risk, more reward.   

[Just Regular]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Call me crazy but I'd rather have Lyles at 1/10 than any of those three at those suggested contracts.   Those all seem like insane overpays.

Its a tradeoff, for sure.     The problem with 1-year guys is there's a reason they are 1-year guys.    You might get Martin Perez and Johnny Cueto, but you could get Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda.

The quality differences in bulk pitchers don't show up heavily in the stats so it doesn't always seem like Steven Matz or Jameson Taillon is a lot better than Jordan Lyles.

Taillon-Taijuan-Manaea is a good realistic group I hope - I guess it concedes Senga is beyond the pale, and accepts the Bassitt-Eovaldi poison pills push them down Elias' shopping list.

I like Heaney but not as much until after a Lyles upgrade is rostered.    I don't know whether Elias has the coin for two of these guys, and if it is just one, Heaney's quality-quantity tradeoff feels like too much risk.

[Frobby]

Let me add that Fangraphs sees the three very differently.  

Taillon - Ben Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$36 mm.

Walker - Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$39 mm.

Manaea - Clemens says 2/$24 mm, Crowdsource says 2/$20 mm.

So they clearly see Manaea as the lesser pitcher, and don’t think any of them warrant a 4-year deal.   I have to say, these projected numbers are a lot more palatable than MLBTR’s.   I’d be much more interested in these pitchers at these prices.   
 

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let me add that Fangraphs sees the three very differently.  

Taillon - Ben Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$36 mm.

Walker - Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$39 mm.

Manaea - Clemens says 2/$24 mm, Crowdsource says 2/$20 mm.

So they clearly see Manaea as the lesser pitcher, and don’t think any of them warrant a 4-year deal.   I have to say, these projected numbers are a lot more palatable than MLBTR’s.   I’d be much more interested in these pitchers at these prices.   
 

Honestly, if you look at Taillon's career his floor is right around 2 WAR.   Obviously, 4/56 carriers the injury risk more than poor peformance, I think.    I'd be very happy with 3/36 but I have a feeling the 4/56 is more realistic with Taillon.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let me add that Fangraphs sees the three very differently.  

Taillon - Ben Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$36 mm.

Walker - Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$39 mm.

Manaea - Clemens says 2/$24 mm, Crowdsource says 2/$20 mm.

So they clearly see Manaea as the lesser pitcher, and don’t think any of them warrant a 4-year deal.   I have to say, these projected numbers are a lot more palatable than MLBTR’s.   I’d be much more interested in these pitchers at these prices.   
 

I second that.

[Aristotelian]

On 11/12/2022 at 3:16 PM, wildcard said:

Oh, so Grayson only pitching 100 IP is best case.   Means only pitching 70 IP is best base.   No one having a better ERA then they had last year is a best case.    I don't think so.

You did cherry pick 3.28 for Bradish and have Hall going from 5.93 to 4.00. Hall was 4.48 at AA/AAA last year. 

I agree with you, it is unlikely that we are the highest bidder on Rodon/Degrom/Verlander. If we want a pitcher of that caliber, it probably has to come in trade at significant cost (Holliday?). That might be a move to make closer to the deadline to minimize the cost. 

[waroriole]

Yeah I don’t see a 4 year deal for any of those 3, especially Manaea. Taillon at 3/40ish is a good choice as a 2nd FA SP. He shouldn’t be the only one we sign. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Yeah I don’t see a 4 year deal for any of those 3, especially Manaea. Taillon at 3/40ish is a good choice as a 2nd FA SP. He shouldn’t be the only one we sign. 

How would you feel if the Orioles signed Taillon and trade for Pablo Lopez?   That's hardly going to blow anyone's doors off but it definitely improves the starting staff and I think that gives you 2 fairly safe additions with some upside.

[waroriole]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

How would you feel if the Orioles signed Taillon and trade for Pablo Lopez?   That's hardly going to blow anyone's doors off but it definitely improves the starting staff and I think that gives you 2 fairly safe additions with some upside.

Yeah I’m good with that, as long as there are 2 solid additions to the pitching staff. I’ll definitely complain if they trade Cedric for a SP upgrade because I don’t see how they replace his offense and defensive production, without making a mistake in FA (Nimmo). 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Yeah I’m good with that, as long as there are 2 solid additions to the pitching staff. I’ll definitely complain if they trade Cedric for a SP upgrade because I don’t see how they replace his offense and defensive production, without making a mistake in FA (Nimmo). 

Ok, then.  I think Taillon and Lopez are two realistic and potential options although Elias only mentioned ONE pitcher.    I agree on Mullins.  You trade him you create a hole that you have to fill.     I think if we do get a bat, Nimmo would again be someone who is on the more realistic side but I like the idea of having one of Mullins/Nimmo in LF with the other in CF.    The risk on Nimmo is durability but he's been pretty consistently good when he's played and he was certainly durable last year.

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let me add that Fangraphs sees the three very differently.  

Taillon - Ben Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$36 mm.

Walker - Clemens says 3/$42 mm, Crowdsource says 3/$39 mm.

Manaea - Clemens says 2/$24 mm, Crowdsource says 2/$20 mm.

So they clearly see Manaea as the lesser pitcher, and don’t think any of them warrant a 4-year deal.   I have to say, these projected numbers are a lot more palatable than MLBTR’s.   I’d be much more interested in these pitchers at these prices.   
 

If those are the options:  Taillon.  Quite a bit more red/good on Taillon's page than on Walker's or Manaea's.  

I think FG/Crowdsource see Manaea as a 'show me' pitcher.  He needs to prove who he is.  Is he the career 4ish ERA guy or the 2022 5ish ERA guy?  As far as stuff goes, Savant isn't very flattering in 2022.  The nugget is that the expected HR in OPACY compared to the 30 he actually gave up in 2022.  That gap wasn't quite as dramatic for the other two.  

Lyles' xERA was 4.94 in 2022 (compared to a 4.42 ERA).  Manaea's xERA was 4.05 (compared to a 4.96 ERA).  

 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Taillon, according to Fangraphs has twice as much WAR (13.7 to 7) in about half as many career innings.   Lyles is playing it safe.  Taillon is more risk, more reward.   

Well, I'm not paying them for what they have done but what they will do, so their career numbers are pretty irrelevant.

Lyles was 90% of the pitcher Taillon was last year; they're basically the same age, and he has been far more durable.  It's incongruous to me that one guy isn't worth 1/10 but the other guy will get 4/56.  In a vacuum, I'd probably prefer Taillon, but such discrepancies in contract status is insane to me.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Its a tradeoff, for sure.     The problem with 1-year guys is there's a reason they are 1-year guys.    You might get Martin Perez and Johnny Cueto, but you could get Dylan Bundy and Michael Pineda.

The quality differences in bulk pitchers don't show up heavily in the stats so it doesn't always seem like Steven Matz or Jameson Taillon is a lot better than Jordan Lyles.

Taillon-Taijuan-Manaea is a good realistic group I hope - I guess it concedes Senga is beyond the pale, and accepts the Bassitt-Eovaldi poison pills push them down Elias' shopping list.

I like Heaney but not as much until after a Lyles upgrade is rostered.    I don't know whether Elias has the coin for two of these guys, and if it is just one, Heaney's quality-quantity tradeoff feels like too much risk.

Well, I guess that's the thing: Taillon wasn't lots better than Lyles last year.