Who will be the Orioles 2022 #5 and #6 prospects?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? 

Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old.

Name              BB%     K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+               
Henderson     13.8%  30.1%    .202    .313      .230    .343    .432    .341       109
Mayo              9.4%    21.5%    .243    .275     .251    .326    .494     .361       118

So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo.

Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?

Good post.  Mayo “disappointed” in 2022 imo and yet he still did impressive things.  He also had the injury which slowed him up.

Im expecting a big leap in 2023. You had him 3 last year, which I agreed with. He won’t be top 3 this year but you can justify him anywhere 4-6.  I personally would have him 4.

[Just Regular]

If things go really well, the end of 2023 Coby Mayo question will be 115, 120 or 125 at-bats.

[jamalshw]

I'm in agreement with those that think these two are Hall and Mayo in some order. I went Mayo #5 and Hall #6 because I think there's too much question on whether Hall can stay in the rotation to bump him over Mayo for me. 

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? 

Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old.

Name              BB%     K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+               
Henderson     13.8%  30.1%    .202    .313      .230    .343    .432    .341       109
Mayo              9.4%    21.5%    .243    .275     .251    .326    .494     .361       118

So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo. Oh, and Mayo has no platoon split like Henderson.

Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?

 

I’ll take a shot at this.

1. Defense. Gunnar’s floor was 3B with a chance to stay at SS.

2. Mayo’s ceiling is 3B.  If he has to move we know he has a cannon but we have no idea if he’s Jeff Francoer or Mark Trumbo in RF.  He might be a 1B.

2. Gunnar had a super breakout in 2022.  Sure, Mayo compares favorably to 2021 Gunnar but where would 2021 Gunnar rated when compared to 2022 Westburg, Ortiz, etc. ?    I hope Mayo has that type of breakout but it doesn’t seem like a reasonable expectation.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’ll take a shot at this.

1. Defense. Gunnar’s floor was 3B with a chance to stay at SS.

2. Mayo’s ceiling is 3B.  If he has to move we know he has a cannon but we have no idea if he’s Jeff Francoer or Mark Trumbo in RF.  He might be a 1B.

2. Gunnar had a super breakout in 2022.  Sure, Mayo compares favorably to 2021 Gunnar but where would 2021 Gunnar rated when compared to 2022 Westburg, Ortiz, etc. ?    I hope Mayo has that type of breakout but it doesn’t seem like a reasonable expectation.

Remember, I'm not comparing the two as overall prospects, I'm just showing what they both did at the same level at the same age. Henderson also had the COVID year to get extra PAs against high level pitching at the Bowie camp.

The K rate difference is something to keep an eye on. I know Mayo's went too high in his first taste of AA, but he was very young for his league.

I've always been bullish on Mayo's bat and remain so. I see controlled violence in that swing, but I know we'll need to see how he comes back next year before getting a fuller picture. but he certainly gets graded on a curve because of age vs competition age/level and there were several god signs in his numbers if you dig a little deeper than the casual stats.

[oriole]

I want to say Westburg is #5, Mayo is #6 but the option isn’t there so I’ll go with what’s presented. 
 

I am going to be surprised at the top 4 only because I don’t see Hall as a top 4 prospect nor do I see him dropping out of the top 10. I guess with that thought I could’ve picked Mayo #5 and Hall #6. 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? 

Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old.

Name              BB%     K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+               
Henderson     13.8%  30.1%    .202    .313      .230    .343    .432    .341       109
Mayo              9.4%    21.5%    .243    .275     .251    .326    .494     .361       118

So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo. Oh, and Mayo has no platoon split like Henderson.

Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?

 

This is all fine, but as you said, we can’t expect a breakout from Mayo like we did with Gunnar.    And, Mayo doesn’t have nearly the defensive value Gunnar does. 
In my mind, Mayo still has a lot of upside offensively but his defensive profile puts him below Westburg and arguably Ortiz/Cowser.   

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? 

Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old.

Name              BB%     K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+               
Henderson     13.8%  30.1%    .202    .313      .230    .343    .432    .341       109
Mayo              9.4%    21.5%    .243    .275     .251    .326    .494     .361       118

So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo. Oh, and Mayo has no platoon split like Henderson.

Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?

 

What RZNJ said above you, basically. You make a decent case, I just see him more towards the back end of the top 10. 

[Three Run Homer]

I'm confident that Mayo is somewhere in the top 10, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him below Westburg, just because of questions about his plate discipline.  

I still think Basallo belongs here.  A 17 year old catcher more than holding his own in rookie ball, with power and plate discipline?  Give me some more of those!  I think he has an even better chance than Mayo of rocketing up the national rankings this coming season.  

So I went Basallo-Mayo.  

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is all fine, but as you said, we can’t expect a breakout from Mayo like we did with Gunnar.    And, Mayo doesn’t have nearly the defensive value Gunnar does. 
In my mind, Mayo still has a lot of upside offensively but his defensive profile puts him below Westburg and arguably Ortiz/Cowser.   

Fair enough,  but Ortiz doesn't have the power upside and put up a .289/.368/.426/.794 against WAC pitching as a sophomore in college vs Mayo's line against High-A pitching. 

As for Westburg or Cowser, if you like older, closer players, than absolutely, they should be higher in your book, but Cowser has a platoon issue and needs to play corner outfield for defensive value and Westburg will end up at 2B or maybe 1B, has some streakiness concerns, and has never hit for average really.

But again, 4-9 could be mixed and matched really depending on what you value more. In my case, I value Mayo's offensive potential and think he could be an outstanding defensive first baseman if he does need to move across the diamond eventually. 

 

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Fair enough,  but Ortiz doesn't have the power upside and put up a .289/.368/.426/.794 against WAC pitching as a sophomore in college vs Mayo's line against High-A pitching. 

What makes Mayo so hard to evaluate is he is definitely playing at advanced levels for his age.  He had 6 PA all year against pitchers younger than him.  He certainly held his own after his promotion to AA, though the strikeouts were a bit concerning.  So, I don't want to make it sound like I'm down on Mayo.  I just don't think a 2023 leap into Gunnar-land is very likely.   I'm just hoping he can do enough to warrant a promotion to AAA by midseason or so.  That would be a good enough accomplishment for a 21-year old.   

[sportsfan8703]

Is there enough there that the Org will continue to play Mayo at 3B next season?  With the way our future depth chart sets up it would make more sense just to switch him to RF/1B now. 

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What makes Mayo so hard to evaluate is he is definitely playing at advanced levels for his age.  He had 6 PA all year against pitchers younger than him.  He certainly held his own after his promotion to AA, though the strikeouts were a bit concerning.  So, I don't want to make it sound like I'm down on Mayo.  I just don't think a 2023 leap into Gunnar-land is very likely.   I'm just hoping he can do enough to warrant a promotion to AAA by midseason or so.  That would be a good enough accomplishment for a 21-year old.   

I agree, looking for a Gunnar-like leap is not realistic, but it is good to know Mayo he had several things, including a much better K rate at the same level and age.

[NCRaven]

Finding a Gunnar Henderson type of one-year progression from nearlty any prospect is unlikely.  Those are very rare.  That's why they are so wonderful when they do happen.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

As for Westburg or Cowser, if you like older, closer players, than absolutely, they should be higher in your book, but Cowser has a platoon issue and needs to play corner outfield for defensive value and Westburg will end up at 2B or maybe 1B, has some streakiness concerns, and has never hit for average really.

.274/.371/.489 - minors

.285/.385/.446 - college

Maybe streaky, but he carries a solid BA and OBP.  And he's getting into his power more as he's grown.  Floor seems to be solidifying even if he has to move to 2B (or 1B).  Honestly, I'm generally down on Westburg.  And if he's in the 10-12+ range, it just speaks to the depth of the org.  He'd be a top 3-5ish guy in bygone years!