Orioles 2022 #4 Prospect DL Hall - LHP

[Tony-OH]

DL Hall
Throws: Left
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2021 Level: AAA/Orioles

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 70/70
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-swing-and-miss-top-of-the-zone
Curveball: 45/50
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-changeup
Change: 50/55
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-change-up
Slider: 60/60
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-slider
Command: 40/45

Most Likely Future Role: High Leverage reliever/Closer
Ceiling: Top of Rotation starter

Stats

What we know: After missing most of 2021 with an elbow injury, Hall came back and stayed healthy in 2022. He started the year with one appearance at both Aberdeen (A+) and Bowie (AA) before heading to Norfolk (AAA) and then to the Orioles for a spot start in August before getting promoted to pitch out of the pen in September for the playoff run.

Hall is 4-pitch left-hander with a fastball that sat in the upper 90s and touched 100 MPH in early season starts before settling in to more 95-97 the rest of the season. Not only does he also get good spin rate on the high velocity offering, he has plus extension that actually lets the pitch play up and explains why it’s so hard to hit in the upper portion of the strike zone.

He offsets that with a plus slider that has plus-plus horizontal movement, and an average change and curveball, though the curveball seems to be the pitch he uses the least.

He pitched much better than his ERA would have indicated at both AAA (4.70 ERA vs 3.94 FIP) and in the major leagues (5.93 ERA vs 1.65 FIP/2.84 xFIP) that was mostly due to some truly awful outings. He’s typical hard to barrel up though he did get hit some in AAA when he was missing in the middle of the plate, particularly with his fastball after getting behind hitters.

There in lies the dilemma with this hard throwing lefty. He absolutely has the repertoire and quality of stuff of a starter, but it takes him a lot of pitches to get guys out. Despite being allowed to pitch up to 100 pitches by mid-July, Hall was never able to go more than six innings in any start, and he did that just once on July 6th when he struck out 14 batters in a 98-pitch outing. In fact, Hall pitched five or more innings in only five of his 20 minor league starts.

After the Orioles promoted him for spot start on August 13th against the Blue Jays in which he allowed five ER in just 3.2 IP, they returned him to AAA to work out of the pen the rest of the season. When the roster expanded to 28 in September, the Orioles called him up to finish off the year in the bullpen. Hall was hit around for three ER in his second relief appearance, but afterwards, settled into the role allowing just one ER over 8.2 IP, striking out 11, walking just two, and holding batters to a .235/.278/.265/.543 slash line to flash his promise out of the pen.

What we don’t know: Can Hall find more consistency with throwing quality strikes that he can stick as a starter? Will he be able to give the team a consistent 6 innings or is his best role in the bullpen?

What we think: With his overall stuff, the organization may want to give him one more chance to stick as starter next season, but at 24-years old, he appears to be ready as a high leverage reliever. Hall is a fidgety guy on the  mound who can show his emotions at times, so the relief role might be a better fit for his personality as well. With the Orioles entering a window of competitiveness, it makes sense for him to be another high leverage reliever to be counted on rather than deal with his inconsistencies from start to start.

While it’s easy to get down on Hall if he “only” becomes a reliever, the fact that he has strikeout stuff to be that high leverage reliever or closer if needed, makes his value still very high. Here's his swing and miss K's this season.

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-k-s

While it’s easy to dream upon him putting it together and becoming a consistent starter on a competitive team, at his age, it might be time to maximize his abilities now at the major league level.

Depending on what moves they make this offseason The Orioles will most likely bring him into camp next year competing as a starter, but the real question will be if he doesn’t look like he will make the rotation, do they send him to AAA to be starter’s depth, or do they get him ready to be a key part of their bullpen?

[Mooreisbetter27]

Minor correction - his first game was against the Rays, not Blue Jays. 

2023 is a huge year for Hall. Looking forward to seeing where he ends up to start the year. 

[Sports Guy]

Tony, what was your deciding factor to basically say, you would take Hall over Mayo?

Im surprised that you ranked them this way (not saying it’s wrong) based off of how you talk about each player.

[Aristotelian]

I'm really surprised he is this high. Anyone this high should not have had the second half he had, and if reliever is now his more likely future I think that should affect his ranking, significantly. If command is a factor in the grades there is no way his FB is 70. In fact, even based purely on velo it's not a 70. I'm glad Tony and the scouts still like him, but I had him at 6 and if it were me doing the rankings he'd be outside of the top 10. 

Now, he did have a pretty stellar first half, and obviously has great stuff. It seemed the bizarre decision to have him do a 1 IP warm up game after the All Star break caused a negative spiral that hopefully never happens again. I can see the bullish case to keep him in the top 10, but I don't think I would trade Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, or Norby for him. 

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony, what was your deciding factor to basically say, you would take Hall over Mayo?

Im surprised that you ranked them this way (not saying it’s wrong) based off of how you talk about each player.

My $0.02 - I can see a case based on the risk factor/range of potential outcomes.

Mayo has a non-zero chance (say 15-20% for the sake of discussion) that his K% could torpedo any progress and he doesn't make it to the MLB.

Hall has proven he belongs in the MLB.  The question is what role?  His range of outcomes looks something like (again % are for the sake of discussion):

50% - a very good high-leverage RP MLBer

30% - bottom of the rotation

20% - top of the rotation

"Who would Tony rather have?" was a factor.  The MLBer with TOR ceiling and high-leverage RP floor (bird in the hand) sounds like decider.

[Frobby]

I still have a lot of belief in Hall’s potential as a starter.  The question is, now that the O’s are shooting to be contenders, can they afford to stick Hall in the rotation and let him absorb the bumps and bruises that he’ll probably need to take before pulling it all together?   Personally I think that might take 1-2 seasons to do, and the process could be pretty frustrating.  He’d probably come along faster in the pen, but almost no matter how good he is there, won’t have the impact he could have if he reached his TOR starter potential.   So, it’s a tough call.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

My $0.02 - I can see a case based on the risk factor/range of potential outcomes.

Mayo has a non-zero chance (say 15-20% for the sake of discussion) that his K% could torpedo any progress and he doesn't make it to the MLB.

Hall has proven he belongs in the MLB.  The question is what role?  His range of outcomes looks something like (again % are for the sake of discussion):

50% - a very good high-leverage RP MLBer

30% - bottom of the rotation

20% - top of the rotation

"Who would Tony rather have?" was a factor.  The MLBer with TOR ceiling and high-leverage RP floor (bird in the hand) sounds like decider.

My guess was similar to this.  Figuring that Hall has more of a fall back.
 

But I know Tony believes in Mayo and the idea he thinks he’s more likely going to end up in the pen made me wonder.

[Moose Milligan]

The ceiling is really high for him, I hope he can put it all together as a starter.  

With the way that bullpens are being deployed these days, he still would have a good amount of value as a high octane shut down reliever.  IMO, he's the biggest question mark for this team headed into 2023 in terms of maximizing potential and if he lands in the rotation or bullpen.

 

[Sports Guy]

Hall has Snell/AJ Burnett like tendencies.  Let’s see if they can harness him and make him a starter.  If so, the ceiling is crazy high.

He is an under the radar very key piece for 2023.

Also wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded.

[LookinUp]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I still have a lot of belief in Hall’s potential as a starter.  The question is, now that the O’s are shooting to be contenders, can they afford to stick Hall in the rotation and let him absorb the bumps and bruises that he’ll probably need to take before pulling it all together?   Personally I think that might take 1-2 seasons to do, and the process could be pretty frustrating.  He’d probably come along faster in the pen, but almost no matter how good he is there, won’t have the impact he could have if he reached his TOR starter potential.   So, it’s a tough call.  

This is where I stand. 

I don't think the O's send him back to AAA. I think he either really looks great in the spring and opens in the rotation, or he is put in the pen, he continues to develop, and he likely goes to the rotation at some point later this year or next. 

I think he's done in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

If they only sign 1 starter, I think that bodes well for Hall.

Im leaning towards them putting Wells in the pen.

[Ridgway22]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

DL Hall
Throws: Left
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23
2021 Level: AAA/Orioles

What we don’t know: Can Hall find more consistency with throwing quality strikes that he can stick as a starter? Will he be able to give the team a consistent 6 innings or is his best role in the bullpen?

What we think: With his overall stuff, the organization may want to give him one more chance to stick as starter next season, but at 24-years old, he appears to be ready as a high leverage reliever.

Reading this, I'm getting an Andrew Miller vibe? Strongly prefer to let him exhaust all possibilities of being a starting pitcher, but if he settles into a high value reliever, well, ok. Worked out for Arthur Rhodes.

[interloper]

He was pretty bad all of last year. High ceiling but he needs to get his act together as a pitcher. Can't coast on prospect status forever. Pitch better. Guy still thinks his lack of command is because he's trying to strike people out. To me that shows a lack of accountability. "I'm doing it on purpose" isn't gonna fly when you walk 2 guys ahead of a Judge bomb. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by interloper

[webbrick2010]

Personally, not very high on Hall, seen to many hard throwers with control issues not pan out

I think he should be packaged in a trade for an established starter while he still retains that prospect potential.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

Personally, not very high on Hall, seen to many hard throwers with control issues not pan out

I think he should be packaged in a trade for an established starter while he still retains that prospect potential.

I kind of agree. I advocated for Tanner Scott's trade years before it happened. He's still the same guy pretty much. 2020 was a huge outlier. 

That said, the O's have recently shown they can get guys like Bautista and Perez under control. I'm willing to see what a fresh season of DL Hall looks like. He did get treated awkwardly last year and it's tough to judge him on his first taste of the big leagues. BUT - he also couldn't really hack it in AAA all year, so.