Orioles 2022 #13 Prospect Cade Povich - LHP

[Tony-OH]

Cade Povich
Throws: LHP
Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22
2022 Level: A+/AA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 45/55
Curveball: 45/50
Change: 50/60
Slider: 40/45
Command: 45/55

Most Likely Future Role: #4 starter
Ceiling: #3 starter

What we know: Acquired as the top player acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade with the Twins, this 6-foot-5 lefty brings a four-pitch mix and intriguing frame that gives him some upside. Drafted in the 3^rd round in 2021 as a low velocity, pitchability lefty, Povich increased velocity in the instructional league that he held through last season. That improved fastball now can sit 93-95 early in games before settling in around 92-93. He works it well in the upper portion of the zone where he can get a decent amount of swing and miss, but he can get barreled lower in the zone since there’s not a lot of horizontal movement. His best offspeed pitch is the change that can flash plus at times, showing good depth and fade. His curveball is his best breaking ball with his slider being more like a cutter than a true left on left sweeping slider.

More control than command at this point, his stuff helps him miss bats more than his command. He put up good swinging strike out rates and K/9 while holding batters to a .222/.290/.374/.664 and a 148 to 39 K-BB ratio in 481 PAs. Gets righties out better than lefties due to his plus changeup.

Struggled a bit in his first taste of AA, but also may have been a bit tired pitching into September for the first time.

What we don’t know: A tall, lanky young man who some scouts believe there could be even more in that fastball. Will he be able to keep that early game velocity longer into games if he fills out a bit this offseason? Can the Orioles help him develop more of a left on left sweeping slider to help him with lefties? Will he trust his stuff as the hitters get better?

What we think: Povich was an excellent get for a few months of Lopez and while his Bowie time was not that great, there is some upside here. He’s a guy who has missed bats and if he can lesson his mistakes in the middle of the plate, he’s got a chance to be a pretty solid starter, even it’s probably more of a #4 guy. The changeup and fastball combo alone can work for him when he spotting both, but the curve and occasional slider gives him more looks.

[btdart20]

Thanks for the write up @Tony-OH!  
 

With the number of guys who have developed a sweeping slider under Holt, that’s a possibility.  Another tick or two would be nice, but maintaining the 94-95 would pay dividends too.

Glad we have this LHP in the org.

[Frobby]

I would describe Povich’s time at Bowie as wildly inconsistent.  He literally alternated good games and bad ones for his six games in Bowie.   In the three good ones, He allowed 5 ER in 16 innings, yielding just 9 hits and 5 walks while striking out 16.  In the three bad ones, he allowed 13 runs in 7.1 innings, yielding 12 hits and 6 hits while striking out 10.   I had the misfortune of attending what arguably was his worst outing, where he piggybacked on Grayson and allowed 4 runs in 0.2 innings.  I still thought his stuff looked decent.   

[waroriole]

I’m a little concerned that Tony described his FB as having little horizontal movement. Seems like a recipe for ML hitters to tee off. I wonder if we’re just so pitching starved in the minors that we’re dreaming on Povich a little bit. 

[emmett16]

I’m a big fan.  I love his frame and pitch profile as a lefty.  I think he has a few more ticks on the FB.  It might be lack of pitching in the system but Povich is one of the players I’m most excited to follow next year.  I hope he can make the next step in his development and start to show command of his pitches. 

[btdart20]

5 hours ago, waroriole said:

I’m a little concerned that Tony described his FB as having little horizontal movement. Seems like a recipe for ML hitters to tee off. I wonder if we’re just so pitching starved in the minors that we’re dreaming on Povich a little bit. 

Tony is describing a 4-seam FB with reverse spin (and little tilted spin).  That’s the deceptive rising FB with “hop” (carry, ride).  It’s what makes the high FB more unhittable.  That spin makes a 91 mph seem faster in the hitter’s shoes.  That type of spin is what Nestor Cortes, Cristian Javier, and Dylan Cease (to name a few) live on.

Povich’s FB is ready even now.  It’s the rest of the package that needs more development.

[nvpacchi]

What did you hear about his curve that only gives it an average ceiling?  After seeing some highlights the movement profile looked like it could potentially be a plus offering.

[LookinUp]

Some interesting bullish comments in this thread. I wasn't impressed by the player, but concede two points:

1. It is a long season for a younger prospect.
2. His profile isn't fully baked.

The hope is that this org can take him to the next level. That might be with velo, developing the curve, etc. At this point, it feels like he might be the perfect type of player to get into our player development system.