The warning signs are there for the reading

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think I would go to the limit on Rodon.  His talent warrants 7/210.   He just turned 30.  Sign me up for the 30-36 seasons.  He's EXACTLY what we need.   An ace.  A LHP.    We don't lose anyone because we signed Rodon.   Does he keep us from retaining Gunnar and/or Adley down the road?   That's a valid question.   But that's also a worst-case scenario.   The contracts that have blown up in our face are the ones where we get the leftovers (Cobb and Ubaldo) on bargain deals or bid against ourselves for a player with red flags (Chris Davis).

Give him an opt out after 4, with front-loading.  That way you can afford Gunnar/Adley when they hit FA.  But yes, it all makes sense in my eyes.

[RZNJ]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

Give him an opt out after 4, with front-loading.  That way you can afford Gunnar/Adley when they hit FA.  But yes, it all makes sense in my eyes.

Any contract he signs most likely will have an opt out sometime within year 2-4.  Maybe a second one as well.   Right.  Front loading is something Tampa likes to do.  Then they trade the guy when the expensive years are about to kick in.    Of course, Rodon will probably get a no-trade clause as well.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hey if we can't win might as well hope someone else loses.

I'm not going to shed any tears or lose any sleep if they decide, against all logic and evidence, to give him ~7/$210 million and he spends most of the contract performing like he did from 2015-2020, both in terms of prooduction and durability. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I'm not going to shed any tears or lose any sleep if they decide, against all logic and evidence, to give him ~7/$210 million and he spends most of the contract performing like he did from 2015-2020, both in terms of prooduction and durability. 

Aren't the last two years, the most important when looking at his productivity?   Don't you expect him to pitch relatively close to his 2021-2022 levels if he remains healthy?

https://nypost.com/2022/12/11/how-carlos-rodon-has-become-one-of-elite-pitchers-in-mlb/

Edited December 13, 2022 by RZNJ

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Aren't the last two years, the most important when looking at his productivity?   Don't you expect him to pitch relatively close to his 2021-2022 levels if he remains healthy?

That is an enormous "if" when it comes to how his arm holds up as he moves further into his 30s.

My guess would be "not so great" based on how it held up during his 20s.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That is an enormous "if" when it comes to how his arm holds up as he moves further into his 30s.

My guess would be "not so great" based on how it held up during his 20s.

https://nypost.com/2022/12/11/how-carlos-rodon-has-become-one-of-elite-pitchers-in-mlb/

[DrinkinWithFermi]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/11/how-carlos-rodon-has-become-one-of-elite-pitchers-in-mlb/

No offense, but I'm not worried/interested enough about a pitcher I don't want and who we aren't going to sign to read that.

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

No offense, but I'm not worried/interested enough about a pitcher I don't want and who we aren't going to sign to read that.

I'm not offended.  Maybe someone else will want to read it.   A little extra knowledge for someone who wants it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'm not offended.  Maybe someone else will want to read it.   A little extra knowledge for someone who wants it.

Sure, why not? Can't hurt. 

My issue is, as it has always been, his durability, not his talent level when fully healthy, and he's definitely great when he's healthy right now, but as he gets older, it's going to get harder and harder to come back from injuries at 100%.

And his track record screams "expect injuries."

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Or you could read the article.

I could, but I won't.

[MDtransplant757]

1 minute ago, Explosivo said:

And yet we got Kyle Gibson who also looked at either us or Toronto and chose us. 
 

I think the Orioles just need to do more with their young prospects to convince pitchers taking their last contracts on where to sign.

I think that's another reason why the O's haven't signed anyone just yet. They have a ton of prospects down the pipeline, and why would you stifle DL Hall and GrayRod? Kyle Gibson should be there to eat innings early, and at worst we just turn him into a spot starter down the stretch. He's mainly just an insurance policy incase so they don't rush Hall and GrayRod. No one else is an insurance policy, but an investment. 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

If you're the Orioles and Elias, you've invested in scouting. What would you rather have as fans, someone who outbids for pitching help and shells out a ton of money which leaves us cash strapped for the future, or do you trade excess of what you have for what you need? We can trade Hays and Santander for pitching. Hays has 4 years of control left and Santander has 3 years of control left, for two above average outfielders. We can get creative with packages depending on the return. Personally I'd rather do that and trade off excess goods for pitching rather than sign free agents. 

So tell us, what kind of starting pitching do you think Hays and Santander brings you? 

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Thank you for clarifying. Tampa does the same thing, which isn't a bad thing. If you can get a good return then I'd say go for it. 

So you like the idea of going for it with guys like Adley and Gunnar but trading them after year 3 or 4 for prospects? Fill me in again, but how many WS title has Tamp won?

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Explosivo said:

And yet we got Kyle Gibson who also looked at either us or Toronto and chose us. 
 

I think the Orioles just need to do more with their young prospects to convince pitchers taking their last contracts on where to sign.

Wait, did you just point toward a mid-30s pitcher coming off a 5+ ERA as proof the Orioles are willing to outbid their AL East competition on top talent? 

Sounds to me the Blue Jays decided to use their Disney money to by a #2 starter instead of shooting for a #4 for $10 million.

[24fps]

9 hours ago, Slight Upward Arc said:

I still reject the premise, but fair enough. The good he’s done basically across the board, with the exception of caring at all about present day can’t really be debated. 

Nothing here can't be debated.  Endlessly.  Circular is a real favorite - it can sometimes go on for weeks.