Kostka: Os need to follow a different path

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I care about Vavra, because he’s young and can keep improving.   But I don’t like any analysis that focuses on OBP in a vacuum.  Vavra was worth 0.1 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR and if I thought that’s what he would be in the future I wouldn’t care about him at all no matter what his OBP was.   

He's no Glenn Gulliver.

[wildcard]

Arguing over the O's having too much talent.   I love it.

If you haven't notice Elias is also adding a bunch of guys that hit very well at AAA.  That is  to go along with the O's top prospects.   Sounds like a winning combination at AAA which creates a winning AAA team and boosts everyone stats.  

I have no worries about having too much talent.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, owknows said:

Vavra had one of the top 3 OBP numbers on the club in limited AB's. Gotta think that's something we could really use. Maybe we should care about him a little more.

But Vavra does not play defense as well as the other players the O's have at 2B or LF.   And he may not hit as wells as the players the O's have at DH.   So that makes him a bench player or depth.   And a player that  may get traded at some point.

[oriolediehard]

3 hours ago, owknows said:

I'm generally an Elias fan, so you won't hear me badmouthing his waiver wire successes.

But of course nobody's perfect... he misses once in awhile.

But that isn't really the potentially valuable point of the chart above.

He's been quite successful on the waiver wire.. and in the draft.

So much so in fact, that he has a rapidly approaching train wreck of a dilemma coming.

He has... Urias, Mateo, Henderson, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Frazier, and soon Mayo and Holliday

All of these guys are aiming at a few infield positions.

Now he has to do what any successful talent accumulator would do when he acquires an untenable surplus. He's going to have to make some TRADES.

Is it possible that the O's can use their surplus prospects for other positions like for the outfield or first base?

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Supplementing your roster with better FA absolutely is the difference between winning and losing. It all is. It’s naive to think differently.

You have to do all of it, especially when you are in playing in the best division in the sport..by far.

You have to get that extra wins. 

What if ownership says no multi-year contracts?

[Orioles0615]

3 hours ago, Pickles said:

That's the nature of the waiver wire.  Doesn't change the fact: The Orioles have done extremely well on the waiver wire under Elias.  And again, I ask: Who is even in the same category?

Which, again is weird, because I read right here he was really bad at it.

Duquette did the same  thing with the scrap heap, how did that end?

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Duquette did the same  thing with the scrap heap, how did that end?

Pearce and Gonzalez were huge pickups.  Buck snagged O'Day off the heap.  Some folks liked Delmon.  Trumbo was a salary dump.

Others didn't go as well.

[eddie83]

-Kostka cherry picks random teams. 
 

-He doesn’t break down the actual production by each market just the overall numbers 

-I agree risks will be a part of the future but this team was at different places than all those teams 

-the waiver pickups last year played a big role in the teams improvement. Urias, Mateo, Baker, Perez, Voth, Wells. 

- Orioles have several big time prospects projected to be on this roster

 

If the Orioles had signed bigger names than who they have acquired these breakdowns would not be any different. 

[Pickles]

23 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Duquette did the same  thing with the scrap heap, how did that end?

Actually, I thought that was Duquette's saving grace.  The rest of it was the problem, thus the end.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

What if ownership says no multi-year contracts?

Then you play the kids or trade for players who are pre arb. 

[eddie83]

Should Elias trade off the waiver claims and Wells just so the columns would look more even? 

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Then you play the kids or trade for players who are pre arb. 

So now the critique is that Elias signed too many FA?

I agree with playing the kids but if you start with the premise that premium FA was taken off the table, then Elias's offseason really doesn't look too bad. Gibson is not blocking anyone. Givens and McAnn will help.

Basically Frazier is the biggest issue, and I do not like the signing either. But I can see a lot of scenarios where Westburg gets 500 AB's and Frazier is still useful. Let's not pretend signing Frazier in itself is some huge disaster. 

I also would like to have seen some trades. They could still happen as Westburg and Ortiz force their way up.

[Aristotelian]

Let me add, the bigger point here is that Elias's strategy this offseason smells of ownership. That is very likely where the blame should be going. 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Let me add, the bigger point here is that Elias's strategy this offseason smells of ownership. That is very likely where the blame should be going. 

I guess it depends on how you frame it. I think he hasn’t made a big trade because he is not ready yet. Clearly who is able to sign or not comes down to ownership. 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

So now the critique is that Elias signed too many FA?

I agree with playing the kids but if you start with the premise that premium FA was taken off the table, then Elias's offseason really doesn't look too bad. Gibson is not blocking anyone. Givens and McAnn will help.

Basically Frazier is the biggest issue, and I do not like the signing either. But I can see a lot of scenarios where Westburg gets 500 AB's and Frazier is still useful. Let's not pretend signing Frazier in itself is some huge disaster. 

I also would like to have seen some trades. They could still happen as Westburg and Ortiz force their way up.

Yes, making moves just to make them is wrong.

Spending just to spend is wrong.

And yes I get that Elias thinks these are good moves but I just don’t see any evidence that suggests he is right, especially w/r/t Frazier.

Eovaldi + Westburg > Frazier + Gibson.

Same cost.