Westburg or Mountcastle? Higher WAR if Full Time Starter at 1B on OD?

[OriolesMagic83]

47 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you replace Mountcastle with Westburg you're more likely to be two bats short.

I find it funny you don't mention Gunnar with the end of the season slump.

His last 14 days: 143/308/238.

Gunnar was still getting on base while slumping.  I'll take a .308 OBP for a hitter's bad stretch. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Gunnar was still getting on base while slumping.  I'll take a .308 OBP for a hitter's bad stretch. 

Sure?

But I think this idea that he's a shoo-in to win RoY is a bit optimistic.

His debut wasn't quite as dominant as we'd like to think.

I do think he's the odds on favorite but I think the field has a real chance.

[Jagwar]

45 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 True, but 27 bombs is still 27 bombs. I think we’ll have a very flexible team and you could see Gunnar and Westburg playing all over the place.  On this present roster Gunnar and Westburg might be most valuable at 1B this year because of their range. 

But we really have no idea if Westburg will thrive or struggle. The stats are encouraging... I'd rather talk about a prospect with 27 bombs than 3 bombs... but we just don't know. I've seen many posts suggesting that we should just hand over starting spots to Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, etc. As if they will have success from day 1. But prospects struggle. 

Point in case... Cal had an 859 OPS in AA in 1980 then a 919 OPS in Rochester in 1981. The Hangout would have been screaming to have him promoted to the Show. The O's called him up in 1981 and he posted a line of 128/150/128/278 in 23 games and 40 PA. I recognize the SSS, but he didn't have immediate success. After adjusting Cal had a lights out ROY year in 1982. 

I want Westburg to do well, I just don't believe he will likely outperform Mountcastle in his first year. 

[Jammer7]

I’m not of the opinion that we should play Westburg at 1B. I understand why many have this as a possibility, but why take a guy who is a legitimate 2B/3B and play him at 1B? To me, that is not utilizing his value properly.

For me, by the end of 2023, I would trade Mateo and Urias, slide Gunnar to SS, Westburg to 3B and either Ortiz or Norby at 2B. Mountcastle is the 1B, for now, but I don’t think he is there long term. It seems like they are looking for a successor at 1B. 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’m suggesting putting Mountcastle at DH and Westburg at 1B primarily so we can take advantage of Westburg’s better range.

I’m not worried about Gunnar’s slump. I think he’ll cruise to ROY. Which brings up another value of Westburg being on the OD roster… he gives us another shot of having someone finishing in the top 2 ROY and us winning the draft pick. We could sweep 1 and 2. 

Then how do you replace the 33 HR's from Anthony Santander?

[Just Regular]

Rookie of Year race - Josh Jung and Triston Casas are two other cup of coffee guys who will enter the year with a shot at 600 PA to get their 20 and 80.     They'll have more media buzz if their teams outplay Gunnar's team, maybe even if they don't.

[SilverRocket]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

True, but 27 bombs is still 27 bombs. I think we’ll have a very flexible team and you could see Gunnar and Westburg playing all over the place.  On this present roster Gunnar and Westburg might be most valuable at 1B this year because of their range. 

Mountcastle had 27 xHR in 2022 in the big leagues, i.e. the wall stole around 5. They both hit righty so they're similarly affected by the wall. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you replace Mountcastle with Westburg you're more likely to be two bats short.

I find it funny you don't mention Gunnar with the end of the season slump.

His last 14 days: 143/308/238.

Most people don’t remember that.  I didn’t until you reminded me.  But I still have high confidence in him in 2023, even though I’m sure he’ll have some hiccups.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I’m not of the opinion that we should play Westburg at 1B. I understand why many have this as a possibility, but why take a guy who is a legitimate 2B/3B and play him at 1B? To me, that is not utilizing his value properly.

For me, by the end of 2023, I would trade Mateo and Urias, slide Gunnar to SS, Westburg to 3B and either Ortiz or Norby at 2B. Mountcastle is the 1B, for now, but I don’t think he is there long term. It seems like they are looking for a successor at 1B. 

The issue is the Orioles may not believe he is a legitimate 3B/2B. In fact, paying $8 million to play 2B tells me they don't like him there defensively and I've heard they don't like Westburg's throwing going away from his target and worry it will be limitation for him at 3B, especially going to his right. He made some bad errors at 2B like just not catching the ball on plays so I wonder if that worries them.

Me, I think his bat will make up for his potential underwhelming defense at 2B. 

So while I agree with your premise of keeping a guy at positions of more defensive value if he can play them effectively, I wonder if 1B will be his most effective position though he moves well enough to give OF a look.

[Jammer7]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The issue is the Orioles may not believe he is a legitimate 3B/2B. In fact, paying $8 million to play 2B tells me they don't like him there defensively and I've heard they don't like Westburg's throwing going away from his target and worry it will be limitation for him at 3B, especially going to his right. He made some bad errors at 2B like just not catching the ball on plays so I wonder if that worries them.

Me, I think his bat will make up for his potential underwhelming defense at 2B. 

So while I agree with your premise of keeping a guy at positions of more defensive value if he can play them effectively, I wonder if 1B will be his most effective position though he moves well enough to give OF a look.

I’d rather use his athleticism in the OF then, if that’s the case. Absolutely, been thinking that this offseason myself. The bat seems just about ready, though, either way. 

[Frobby]

50 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The issue is the Orioles may not believe he is a legitimate 3B/2B. In fact, paying $8 million to play 2B tells me they don't like him there defensively and I've heard they don't like Westburg's throwing going away from his target and worry it will be limitation for him at 3B, especially going to his right. He made some bad errors at 2B like just not catching the ball on plays so I wonder if that worries them.

Me, I think his bat will make up for his potential underwhelming defense at 2B. 

So while I agree with your premise of keeping a guy at positions of more defensive value if he can play them effectively, I wonder if 1B will be his most effective position though he moves well enough to give OF a look.

I want to see Westburg’s defense for myself.   One thing I know: he can’t be a worse 3B than Nevin.  I’ve never gotten the impression that he’s inadequate anywhere; uninspiring, perhaps.  

[sportsfan8703]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I want to see Westburg’s defense for myself.   One thing I know: he can’t be a worse 3B than Nevin.  I’ve never gotten the impression that he’s inadequate anywhere; uninspiring, perhaps.  

I don’t think Westburg is Nevin level by any means, but when you have 4 GG level defenders in Mateo, Urias, Gunnar, Ortiz, it’s really hard to compete with that. I want to see what Westburg can do at 1B and LF in ST. 
 

Im tired of having to suffer through Hays’ and Mountcastle’s month long slumps where they swing at everything. Iron sharpens Iron. It’s time for players to earn ABs. Hitting a baseball is hard. Obviously. Not having a good plan at the plate in year 3 or 4 of your career is inexcusable on a team trying to win. Adapt to playing winning baseball or ride the pine/get traded. 

[Sydnor]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I want to see Westburg’s defense for myself.   One thing I know: he can’t be a worse 3B than Nevin.  I’ve never gotten the impression that he’s inadequate anywhere; uninspiring, perhaps.  

I saw him play in Norfolk a few times. I strongly dislike saying anything negative about minor leaguers trying to see their dreams come true, but I’ll provide this take in addition to anything Tony has said, which is much more important and significant than anything I will say here.

I’m not an expert, but his range at second didn’t seem great to me, and he didn’t appear to have superior arm strength. I don’t think he can play SS at the major league level with his range and arm strength. At third, he didn’t appear to have great hands like Urias or a quick release.

I see why people want to play him at first. I don’t think he would come close to outperforming Mountcastle, and I’m not Mountcastle’s biggest fan (because of his approach at the plate). I think we need to remember that most of these young players are not going to hit their 90th percentile outcomes. If I was going to trade a minor leaguer that has value for a pitcher, Westburg would be at the top of my list.

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

I saw him play in Norfolk a few times. I strongly dislike saying anything negative about minor leaguers trying to see their dreams come true, but I’ll provide this take in addition to anything Tony has said, which is much more important and significant than anything I will say here.

I’m not an expert, but his range at second didn’t seem great to me, and he didn’t appear to have superior arm strength. I don’t think he can play SS at the major league level with his range and arm strength. At third, he didn’t appear to have great hands like Urias or a quick release.

I see why people want to play him at first. I don’t think he would come close to outperforming Mountcastle, and I’m not Mountcastle’s biggest fan (because of his approach at the plate). I think we need to remember that most of these young players are not going to hit their 90th percentile outcomes. If I was going to trade a minor leaguer that has value for a pitcher, Westburg would be at the top of my list.

I appreciate the insight. So then that leaves Norby and Mountcastle as two guys that might only stick on the dirt at 1B. While Mountcastle worked on his defense at 1B a lot. Kudos to him, but he’s still not Keith Hernandez over there. He’s kind of a lug.

It’s looking like Westburg and Norby will be in the LF/1B/DH mix. With spots starts in the IF.
 

Keep in mind… this board also has a hard time believing that Vavra can’t play 2B.
 

I like the idea of selling high, and maybe this is selling high in Westburg, but that bat certainly plays. People though Schoop didn’t have the range for 2nd either, but he also has a howitzer for an arm.  

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

If I was going to trade a minor leaguer that has value for a pitcher, Westburg would be at the top of my list.

Same here. No big disagreements with your assessment, although, watching him a bunch in Bowie and on MilbTV, I do think he's a better defender than you do probably. He's just not anywhere near the glove some thought he was. What's good for him (and the Orioles ) is that he greatly improved his power numbers in the upper minors. 15 homers in 2021 was decent for a INF prospect but getting up to 27 including 18 at Norfolk is actually really impressive.