Do you expect Santander to hit better than Hays in 2023?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

 

But again that’s not really my point. I’m not talking about performance as much(although there are issues there) as I am reliability and availability. This is just not a player I am going into 2023 saying he is my everyday left or right fielder. I can’t rely on that. 

Hell, I wouldn’t count in it for Santander either and for much of the same reason. I actually like his chances of staying healthier this year because he should get most of at bats as a DH and part time first baseman but he’s also been pretty unreliable in his career. That’s why I want him traded.

When I talk about him as a 4th OFer I am talking about him within the context that he isn’t a guy you plan to get “starters minutes”. 
 

If he stays healthy and it turns out that way, great. He likely will be a 2+ WAR guy if that’s the case but I can’t plan on that. 

So what would you be planning to do?

To some degree, “plans” are overrated.  A good manager adapts to the facts on the ground.  Are Hays and Santander healthy?   How are they hitting?  Are Stowers and McKenna getting enough playing time where they’ll be prepared to step in if someone gets hurt?   It’s all interrelated.  My loose plan would be Mullins plays the most, then Santander and Hays (assuming health), then Stowers, and finally McKenna.  I want Stowers to get 350 PA minimum, some of which will be at DH, some in the OF.  I rest Hays and Santander enough to make that happen. 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So what would you be planning to do?

To some degree, “plans” are overrated.  A good manager adapts to the facts on the ground.  Are Hays and Santander healthy?   How are they hitting?  Are Stowers and McKenna getting enough playing time where they’ll be prepared to step in if someone gets hurt?   It’s all interrelated.  My loose plan would be Mullins plays the most, then Santander and Hays (assuming health), then Stowers, and finally McKenna.  I want Stowers to get 350 PA minimum, some of which will be at DH, some in the OF.  I rest Hays and Santander enough to make that happen. 

My plan would be for Mullins to play almost every day (perhaps sit vs the tougher lefties)…Stowers to be an “everyday” player(I have my doubts about him but I want to see him get 450+ at bats)  Cowser to be up by mid May.

Hays/McKenna/Santander would be my fill ins before Cowser gets here.

Once that happens, Hays would still be able to play 3-4 times a week between CO and DH.  He should still get 350-450 at bats. 

McKenna would be my primary back up CFer and play when Mullins is sitting. Cowser would get everyday at bats, maybe sitting a game or so a week.

If Stowers appears over his head and Hays is playing well and is healthy, he can take more playing time from him.

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Baseball reference WAR is inferior to FG(at least when it comes to position players) as we have discussed many times.

Here’s the dirty little secret about pro athletes..most of them are not everyday guys. When you talk about baseball players, most can’t stay healthy enough or hit well against each arm or whatever and get exposed playing too much.

Thats Hays…but that’s a lot of his peers and that’s who is compared to, so in that regards, sure he’s better than a bench guy.  

But again that’s not really my point. I’m not talking about performance as much(although there are issues there) as I am reliability and availability. This is just not a player I am going into 2023 saying he is my everyday left or right fielder. I can’t rely on that. 

Hell, I wouldn’t count in it for Santander either and for much of the same reason. I actually like his chances of staying healthier this year because he should get most of at bats as a DH and part time first baseman but he’s also been pretty unreliable in his career. That’s why I want him traded.

When I talk about him as a 4th OFer I am talking about him within the context that he isn’t a guy you plan to get “starters minutes”. 
 

If he stays healthy and it turns out that way, great. He likely will be a 2+ WAR guy if that’s the case but I can’t plan on that. 

I honestly used bbref only because I couldn't get Fangraphs on my phone. Last year Hays was tied for #10 LF in fWAR for qualified players. I don't think anyone disagrees with your assessment of Hays, it's just a semantic debate over what to call it.

I would agree we should have alternatives and in fact Cowser may be "Plan A" to get the majority of AB's by the end of the season. But for now Hays is likely the starter on Opening Day and could keep the job if he is performing at a high level. 

[Aristotelian]

PS My plan would be to trade Hays when Cowser is ready. So Hays might end up with 500 AB's even if most of them aren't for us. 

[Frobby]

55 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

My plan would be for Mullins to play almost every day (perhaps sit vs the tougher lefties)…Stowers to be an “everyday” player(I have my doubts about him but I want to see him get 450+ at bats)  Cowser to be up by mid May.

Hays/McKenna/Santander would be my fill ins before Cowser gets here.

Once that happens, Hays would still be able to play 3-4 times a week between CO and DH.  He should still get 350-450 at bats. 

McKenna would be my primary back up CFer and play when Mullins is sitting. Cowser would get everyday at bats, maybe sitting a game or so a week.

If Stowers appears over his head and Hays is playing well and is healthy, he can take more playing time from him.

So, you’d want Stowers to get more PA than Hays.  At this point, I don’t, but I want Stowers to get enough playing time where he could change my mind about it as the season progresses.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, you’d want Stowers to get more PA than Hays.  At this point, I don’t, but I want Stowers to get enough playing time where he could change my mind about it as the season progresses.  

Yea I do because I think at this point, Stowers has the higher upside but I also think he has a lower floor.

Ultimately, the playing time would be close.

Edited January 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, you’d want Stowers to get more PA than Hays.  At this point, I don’t, but I want Stowers to get enough playing time where he could change my mind about it as the season progresses.  

I’d say they’re comparable players at this point. You might could pencil them in for getting a similar number of ABs at the beginning of the season, but that’s up to the manager to adjust as their production dictates. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’d say they’re comparable players at this point. You might could pencil them in for getting a similar number of ABs at the beginning of the season, but that’s up to the manager to adjust as their production dictates. 

I’d say Stowers has to prove that.  From what I’ve seen, Hays is almost certainly the better defender.  So, Stowers needs to outhit Hays to get the lion’s share of the playing time (though I suspect some of his at bats will come at DH).   

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’d say Stowers has to prove that.  From what I’ve seen, Hays is almost certainly the better defender.  So, Stowers needs to outhit Hays to get the lion’s share of the playing time (though I suspect some of his at bats will come at DH).   

I’m not worried about him having a higher OPS but agree the defense could be the issue.  The other side to that is that Hays’ defense declined last year and Stowers was likely getting used to the third deck.  Hopefully we see Stowers improve his defense some this year.

[interloper]

Even if Santander reverts to his sub-par OBP, I'll still take the guy who can hit 25-30 home runs. Hays brings more value in the field, obviously, but purely hitting I'll take Santander. 

[foxfield]

The "plan" should be that Hays has the chance to earn staying on the field and that going forward there are options to: A) Ensure that he has rest and...B) Doesn't serve as an option when he isn't healthy or performing.