Keith Law Top 100

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Just curious.  Are Cowsers minor league splits against LHP much different than Henderson?

Well, I do have some concerns over Gunnar's splits as well, but I feel he started to make better adjustments when he got to AAA and was able to show some pop against lefties there .253/.333/  .460/.793. Gunnar will need to improve on hitting left-handed breaking pitches, but he's shown the ability to make adjustments at a young age so I have a better feel that Henderson may eventually hold his own against lefties better than Cowser.

While Cowser's OPS against lefties (.458, .718, .753) did improve as he moved up the chain it was mostly based on walks vs power, something major league lefties will due once they realize he shows limited pop against lefties. Across three levels, Cowser slashed .194/.329/.287/.616 with 6 2Bs, 2 HR, and 20-53 BB-K rate in 158 PAs against lefties. My biggest concern is the lack of power because as we've seen, OBP usually does not translate at the major league level if there is not a threat of power.

Gunnar is also a year and four months younger than Cowser and has reached the major leagues so I think he has a better chance of making the adjustments to southpaws as he continues to mature as a hitter. Gunnar significantly out played him at the AAA level and overall outplayed him while playing most of his games at a level above Cowser at a younger age.

               AVG OBP  SLG  OPS 2B  3B  HR  BB  K     PAs
Gunnar : .289 .402  .511 .912  31   8   23   95  150  635   at AA/AAA/Maj
Cowser:  .278 .406  .469 .874  36   2   19   94  174  626   at A+/AA/AAA

So saying that, I do think Cowser has some ability and think he will end up an everyday player, but he may need to be hid against good lefties and his ability ultimately to hit them will determine his overall role and success at the major league level. 

 

 
 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t think we have a good picture of if or how well Cowser will Hit lefties.

Obviously you can only go off of the info we have now, which says he doesn’t looks great but really, as long as he can be a 700ish OPS guy bs lefties, that will be fine provided he hits righties very well.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Pat Kelly said:

Agree on Lawlar, maybe unfair to be hyper critical of Elias on the draft and farm system but still unclear if you are taking BPA how you can justify CC over JL. In the end this might be more about whether Holliday is better than Lawlar as it feels like they would not have taken them both B2B. 

Law mentions  that if the O's have  a good SS Holliday maybe switch to CF.   Not saying he is right but it was an interesting comment consider Mullins aging in a couple of years.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, LTO's said:

I'm surprised he has Westburg over Ortiz just based on his previous comments on both. Little surprised Norby didn't make it on near the end as he's always liked him and he just hit 30 homers. I don't think he has ever really cared much for Mayo and Cowser so don't expect to see them make any lists. Biggest shock for me though is how he still has Holliday below 3 other 2022 draftees. 

Westburg over Ortiz in the rankings appears be because of Ortiz's slow 1st half.  If he had hit like he did in the 2nd half all year  he would have been much higher.   Law still thinks Ortiz is the O's better SS.

[Babkins]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Who is DK?

[Babkins]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Who is DK?

[ThisIsBirdland]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, I do have some concerns over Gunnar's splits as well, but I feel he started to make better adjustments when he got to AAA and was able to show some pop against lefties there .253/.333/  .460/.793. Gunnar will need to improve on hitting left-handed breaking pitches, but he's shown the ability to make adjustments at a young age so I have a better feel that Henderson may eventually hold his own against lefties better than Cowser.

While Cowser's OPS against lefties (.458, .718, .753) did improve as he moved up the chain it was mostly based on walks vs power, something major league lefties will due once they realize he shows limited pop against lefties. Across three levels, Cowser slashed .194/.329/.287/.616 with 6 2Bs, 2 HR, and 20-53 BB-K rate in 158 PAs against lefties. My biggest concern is the lack of power because as we've seen, OBP usually does not translate at the major league level if there is not a threat of power.

Gunnar is also a year and four months younger than Cowser and has reached the major leagues so I think he has a better chance of making the adjustments to southpaws as he continues to mature as a hitter. Gunnar significantly out played him at the AAA level and overall outplayed him while playing most of his games at a level above Cowser at a younger age.

               AVG OBP  SLG  OPS 2B  3B  HR  BB  K     PAs
Gunnar : .289 .402  .511 .912  31   8   23   95  150  635   at AA/AAA/Maj
Cowser:  .278 .406  .469 .874  36   2   19   94  174  626   at A+/AA/AAA

So saying that, I do think Cowser has some ability and think he will end up an everyday player, but he may need to be hid against good lefties and his ability ultimately to hit them will determine his overall role and success at the major league level. 

 

 
 

 

 

This information is helpful. The improvement in OPS at AA and AAA is nice to see too, but I take your point on it being OBP driven.

Any idea where those splits are actually tracked, by the way? Milb.com player profile breaks down LHB/RHB at Aberdeen only it looks like (not sure why), and baseball reference doesn't look like they break it down by minor league level. I'm curious what his OBP/SLG were at both AA and AAA as a LHB.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

This information is helpful. The improvement in OPS at AA and AAA is nice to see too, but I take your point on it being OBP driven.

Any idea where those splits are actually tracked, by the way? Milb.com player profile breaks down LHB/RHB at Aberdeen only it looks like (not sure why), and baseball reference doesn't look like they break it down by minor league level. I'm curious what his OBP/SLG were at both AA and AAA as a LHB.

Go to Baseball savant then click their minor league stats and it give splits by level!

[ThisIsBirdland]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Go to Baseball savant then click their minor league stats and it give splits by level!

Perfect, thanks!

Yeah, he definitely turned it around on OBP, although SLG improved a decent bit too; at AAA it looks like 5 of his 7 hits were XBH. All of these samples are probably too small to glean too much from I imagine, but SLG of .361/.378 are still considerably better than what he did early in the year at Aberdeen (.179).

[LTO's]

22 is still young for AA and AAA. He's obviously not at the level of Henderson but he has the time to make adjustments. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Perfect, thanks!

Yeah, he definitely turned it around on OBP, although SLG improved a decent bit too; at AAA it looks like 5 of his 7 hits were XBH. All of these samples are probably too small to glean too much from I imagine, but SLG of .361/.378 are still considerably better than what he did early in the year at Aberdeen (.179).

True and I'm not saying he can't develop the ability to hit left-handers, but I just think currently this is something that stops him from being a sure fire everyday regular until he can.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

True and I'm not saying he can't develop the ability to hit left-handers, but I just think currently this is something that stops him from being a sure fire everyday regular until he can.

With a different approach and a very SSS Cowser was 11 for 18 with 2 doubles, 6 walks and 1 strikeout against LHP at Delmarva in 2021.   Can't do much better than that.    Obviously, it was higher level of LHP he faced last year but he was also going through some adjustments with trying to pull the ball in the air more.    

[Tony-OH]

32 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

With a different approach and a very SSS Cowser was 11 for 18 with 2 doubles, 6 walks and 1 strikeout against LHP at Delmarva in 2021.   Can't do much better than that.    Obviously, it was higher level of LHP he faced last year but he was also going through some adjustments with trying to pull the ball in the air more.    

Well damn, that changes everything. lol 

I think he once went 20-for-20 against his left-handed friend in whiffle ball too, so hey, you never know.

[jerios55]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Law mentions  that if the O's have  a good SS Holliday maybe switch to CF.   Not saying he is right but it was an interesting comment consider Mullins aging in a couple of years.

 

For all these comments of SS moving to CF, I'm surprised more haven't talked about Mateo at CF.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, jerios55 said:

 

For all these comments of SS moving to CF, I'm surprised more haven't talked about Mateo at CF.

He doesn't hit well enough.