Keith Law Top 100

[LTO's]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We would do that, and Arizona would not.

It's incredibly unlikely that either team would be motivated to make that trade. For a multitude of reasons.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's incredibly unlikely that either team would be motivated to make that trade. For a multitude of reasons.

Probably a slam dunk that Arizona doesn't do it.   I think it's a little bit more of a question on our end.   The gulf beween Lawlar and Cowser even according to most experts, excluding Law, is not that wide.    Add in the fact that Cowser is closer to the majors, LH, and is more of a "need" position for the Orioles.    Remember, the consensus had Lawlar way ahead of Cowser on draft day and Elias/Ciolek still went for Cowser.   I think Cowser has only confirmed their choice.   The question is if they had doubts about Lawlar and he has proven them wrong to the point they wish they could go back and have a do over.

I do not believe they Orioles had Cowser and Lawlar rated on different tiers on draft day and decided to go underslot.   I think it was a case of either liking Cowser better or feeling the difference was so small that it made sense to take Cowser and spend the savings elsewhere.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Apparently, you need to speak to the ML teams about the art of negotiating with draftees.  Arizona could have saved millions.

Well I do think teams get stupid. These kids aren’t turning down life changing money and the opportunity to get to free agency sooner and not have to take college classes for 3 years and risk being exposed, get injured, etc.., over a million or so dollars.  It’s just so unlikely that you call their bluff and you will win more often than not..and when I say win, I mean 9 out of 10 times..at least.

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I do think teams get stupid. These kids aren’t turning down life changing money and the opportunity to get to free agency sooner and not have to take college classes for 3 years and risk being exposed, get injured, etc.., over a million or so dollars.  It’s just so unlikely that you call their bluff and you will win more often than not..and when I say win, I mean 9 out of 10 times..at least.

No, but these teams are exchanging numbers with the players. If the team comes in after exchanging numbers and offers a lot less money, that reputation is going to spread. It’s just not how things work.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

No, but these teams are exchanging numbers with the players. If the team comes in after exchanging numbers and offers a lot less money, that reputation is going to spread. It’s just not how things work.

Then don’t exchange numbers with them. You don’t need to show your cards to them.

It’s not their choice if you draft them or not. If you decide that’s the guy you wanted, you draft him.

[Sports Guy]

And it doesn’t matter anyway. You can easily sign guys to slot and get your overslot guys. 

No need to rehash this over and over again but punting picks and paying 20k for guys in the later rounds is something you can do.

Focus on the best talent.

[LTO's]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Probably a slam dunk that Arizona doesn't do it.   I think it's a little bit more of a question on our end.   The gulf beween Lawlar and Cowser even according to most experts, excluding Law, is not that wide.    Add in the fact that Cowser is closer to the majors, LH, and is more of a "need" position for the Orioles.    Remember, the consensus had Lawlar way ahead of Cowser on draft day and Elias/Ciolek still went for Cowser.   I think Cowser has only confirmed their choice.   The question is if they had doubts about Lawlar and he has proven them wrong to the point they wish they could go back and have a do over.

I do not believe they Orioles had Cowser and Lawlar rated on different tiers on draft day and decided to go underslot.   I think it was a case of either liking Cowser better or feeling the difference was so small that it made sense to take Cowser and spend the savings elsewhere.

Agreed. There's also a very, very real argument to be made that the O's have two INF prospects that are better than Lawlar anyway. Obviously, it's an unanimous opinion that Henderson is better but there are many people who believe Holliday will be as well. If you have those two and three other RH INF prospects that are near unanimous top 100 prospects, I think the O's would be more than fine rolling into this season with Cowser instead of Lawlar. Doesn't even mean that they think he's "better." 

My only problem with Law's write ups is him saying Lawlar didn't get overly aggressive in his AA debut. I don't know how you can spin a .219 average, sub .300 OBP and a 29 K% in a league where the average OPS is .777 as not "aggressive." Twenty is very young for AA but so is 22 for AAA. We'll have a pretty good idea in a year or so if this is a big deal. 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Then don’t exchange numbers with them. You don’t need to show your cards to them.

It’s not their choice if you draft them or not. If you decide that’s the guy you wanted, you draft him.

There seems to be unwritten rules about how the draft process works.   Almost everyone in the first 3 rounds signs unless a medical issues pops up or some miscommunication (Fabian and the Red Sox?).      Seems like you want to do things a different way.     

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

Agreed. There's also a very, very real argument to be made that the O's have two INF prospects that are better than Lawlar anyway. Obviously, it's an unanimous opinion that Henderson is better but there are many people who believe Holliday will be as well. If you have those two and three other RH INF prospects that are near unanimous top 100 prospects, I think the O's would be more than fine rolling into this season with Cowser instead of Lawlar. Doesn't even mean that they think he's "better." 

My only problem with Law's write ups is him saying Lawlar didn't get overly aggressive in his AA debut. I don't know how you can spin a .219 average, sub .300 OBP and a 29 K% in a league where the average OPS is .777 as not "aggressive." Twenty is very young for AA but so is 22 for AAA. We'll have a pretty good idea in a year or so if this is a big deal. 

Lawlar could be great but I'd certainly like to see what he does this year in AA.   He got off to a very slow start in A+ and adjusted so I certainly won't be surprised if he excels in AA after so so numbers there last year.   I do have some doubts though.   Another thing was his low exit velocity numbers relative to other top 100 prospects.      

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There seems to be unwritten rules about how the draft process works.   Almost everyone in the first 3 rounds signs unless a medical issues pops up or some miscommunication (Fabian and the Red Sox?).      Seems like you want to do things a different way.     

No..they will all still sign. I’m just saying these guys aren’t forgoing a pro career for what amounts to be 350-500k after taxes and paying the agent.  
 

You will get the once in a blue moon, JD Drew type guy but the 98 out of 100 guys are signing as long as you aren’t throwing out insulting, 50% of slot type money and no one is suggesting that.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No..they will all still sign. I’m just saying these guys aren’t forgoing a pro career for what amounts to be 350-500k after taxes and paying the agent.  
 

You will get the once in a blue moon, JD Drew type guy but the 98 out of 100 guys are signing as long as you aren’t throwing out insulting, 50% of slot type money and no one is suggesting that.

Sure.  The slot system was created to do away with long drawn out negotiations and pretty much knowing what players would sign for before the being picked.    You're saying you would ignore what players/agents say, pick who you want, and then offer them something signicantly under their asking price or slot.   Might work but I'm guessing your team wouldn't be a popular destination.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure.  The slot system was created to do away with long drawn out negotiations and pretty much knowing what players would sign for before the being picked.    You're saying you would ignore what players/agents say, pick who you want, and then offer them something signicantly under their asking price or slot.   Might work but I'm guessing your team wouldn't be a popular destination.

Guess it depends on how you define significant but a lot of to picks, including the #1 pick, sign for less than slot.

My strategy would be the same one that is done on a regular basis.

This particular case is being discussed as Lawlar got over slot from his team and the Os paid underslot for their guy and the question is, what situation is better.

Thats a bad question imo. It takes into account that the only thing Lawlar signs for is over slot. I disagree thats the case, I don’t care what the result was, I blame Arizona for that.

I think it’s possible/likely it took another 500k-1M more than Cowser to get him signed..which is still 1+M under what he signed for.  The Os decided to spread the money out with a player they didn’t have ranked as high. 
 

 

[Sports Guy]

NIL money matters now too, so that is a factor although I’m not sure much NIL money is there for baseball players.

But this is the one thing they have leverage wise, if they can score a good amount of it.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I didn't read anything about the swing other than trying to lay off the high fastball out of zone.

I have to think his coaches in college tried that.

 

[RZNJ]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I have to think his coaches in college tried that.

 

They may have but he seemed to hit better after he was drafted and I didn't read anything about swing changes.  Did you?