Keith Law Top 100

[HakunaSakata]

25 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

 

For all these comments of SS moving to CF, I'm surprised more haven't talked about Mateo at CF.

Mateo's SS glove is the only thing that's potentially keeping him in the lineup. If you move him to CF and he's just an average to slightly above average fielder then it would be even harder to justify giving him regular at bats. 

[NCRaven]

49 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Mateo's SS glove is the only thing that's potentially keeping him in the lineup. If you move him to CF and he's just an average to slightly above average fielder then it would be even harder to justify giving him regular at bats. 

So don’t give him regular at bats.  Use him as a pinch runner or late inning defensive replacement.  Give him reps everywhere on the dirt and the grass.  That’s his long-term value on a contender.  IMO, of course.

[sportsfan8703]

The best thing to take away from all of these top 100 lists is that we have GR, Hall, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, and Cowser, that all got AAA experience last year, and will be coming into their first MLB ST with a chance to actually make the team. No matter how slim the odds are. That’s a big deal. They’re going to get a lot of ST PT. After that, when we have to send them down, they’re going to be not that far away from being “ready”. 

[Pat Kelly]

Just missed list is out.  Cowser is first so arguably 101. The write-up is as follows:

Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2021

Last year’s ranking: 52

Cowser was an under slot pick at fifth overall in 2021, as the Orioles wanted to replicate their 2020 strategy of spreading some of their bonus pool around to later picks, going well over slot with John Rhodes (third round) and Creed Willems (eighth round). Neither of those two players has worked out so far, but Cowser looks like he’ll be as advertised — a very solid, reliable regular, maybe a 55, but perhaps not a star. Cowser has very good feel to hit, at least against right-handed pitching, as he hit .307/.432/.530 off them, but struggled against lefties with a 33 percent strikeout rate and just a .194/.329/.287 line on the season. He took off when he reached Double A in late June, moving to a slightly better ballpark for left-handed hitters, and didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Pat Kelly

[Tony-OH]

 

"didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties."

This was a concern for me a bit as well as inability to hit lefties and why I dropped him a bit. My concern is with his approach to get to the power, is able to get to good offspeed pitches? Was he cheating or guessing well in AA and then when the pitching got better did it expose him a bit?

I don't know, but this was part of the reason why he fell a bit for me. I sill think he can overcome this, but to what extent? I do think he has a 4th outfielder floor no matter what, but he'll need to make these adjustments while trying to get to his power still.

That's what he'll need to prove this year in AAA. 

 

 

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

"didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties."

This was a concern for me a bit as well as inability to hit lefties and why I dropped him a bit. My concern is with his approach to get power, is able to get to good offspeed pitches? Was he cheating or guessing well in AA and then when the pitching got better did it expose him him a bit?

I don't know, but this was part of the reason why he fell a bit for me. I sill think he can overcome this, but to what extent? I do think he has a 4th outfielder floor no matter what, but he'll need to make these adjustments while trying to get to his power still.

That's what he'll need to prove this year in AAA. 

 

 

I think that’s 100% fair. The way I see it, Cowser was in the first year of making a pretty big adjustment in his swing.   It was mostly a good adjustment, but there were some hiccups and flaws.   Hopefully he irons those out in 2023 now that the main work is done.  

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s 100% fair. The way I see it, Cowser was in the first year of making a pretty big adjustment in his swing.   It was mostly a good adjustment, but there were some hiccups and flaws.   Hopefully he irons those out in 2023 now that the main work is done.  

Exactly.   He get getting better and advancing all year long.   Bad start at Aberdeen, picks it up in June and gets promoted.  Cuts down his strikeouts at Bowie (25%) and rakes.  Gets promoted.   Strikes out a ton and gets off to a horrid start at Norfolk.   Finishes strong and strikes out 16 times in his last 77 PA (21%).    I would bet on him to continue to make adjustments based on last year.

[Sports Guy]

Should you take a guy high that you have to re-work his swing?

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Should you take a guy high that you have to re-work his swing?

I think re-work his swing is overstating it a bit.   They took a hitter with a very solid base of hitting and helped him tap into his power.   Kind of the same with Norby.   I'd say it's looking pretty good so far.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Should you take a guy high that you have to re-work his swing?

Maybe?  Depends.  I wouldn't do it with a corner outfielder but a skill position guy with defensive chops?  

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Should you take a guy high that you have to re-work his swing?

I think most people agree that Cowser was not the 5th best player in his class on draft day.  The O’s took him because they wanted to spread their money around some and liked Cowser at the amount he was willing to accept.   I think it’s okay to spend $5.1 mm on a player that you want to tweak a bit.   

[Pat Kelly]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think most people agree that Cowser was not the 5th best player in his class on draft day.  The O’s took him because they wanted to spread their money around some and liked Cowser at the amount he was willing to accept.   I think it’s okay to spend $5.1 mm on a player that you want to tweak a bit.   

To me this is the core issue and will define Elias’ success.  We know when he has a 1:1 slot he won’t reach and try to spread money around if there is a clear blue chip player.  We also know he is able to find value in later rounds and has a system that is good at developing position players.   What we don’t know or frankly fully align on are the upper round reach picks like Heston and Cowser…and one could also question the general approach to drafting college OFs with swing issues. There is no success story here yet and no clear all star caliber depth in the OF. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

To me this is the core issue and will define Elias’ success.  We know when he has a 1:1 slot he won’t reach and try to spread money around if there is a clear blue chip player.  We also know he is able to find value in later rounds and has a system that is good at developing position players.   What we don’t know or frankly fully align on are the upper round reach picks like Heston and Cowser…and one could also question the general approach to drafting college OFs with swing issues. There is no success story here yet and no clear all star caliber depth in the OF. 

I think the only high draft pick outfielder drafted so far with a "swing issue" was Dylan Beavers.   We could probably throw Hudson Haskin in there too.   Cowser and Kjerstad didn't have swing issues.

Edited January 31, 2023 by RZNJ

[deward]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

"didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties."

This was a concern for me a bit as well as inability to hit lefties and why I dropped him a bit. My concern is with his approach to get power, is able to get to good offspeed pitches? Was he cheating or guessing well in AA and then when the pitching got better did it expose him him a bit?

I don't know, but this was part of the reason why he fell a bit for me. I sill think he can overcome this, but to what extent? I do think he has a 4th outfielder floor no matter what, but he'll need to make these adjustments while trying to get to his power still.

That's what he'll need to prove this year in AAA. 

 

 

Small sample size and all, but he seemed to adjust quickly at AAA. His first 10 games, he had an OPS of .413 and struck out nearly half the time. He then went on a tear over the last 17 games, with an OPS of .972 and cut his strikeout rate by more than half. I didn't get to watch him, so not sure what, if any, mechanical adjustments he made, but the progression seems promising.

[Moose Milligan]

59 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Should you take a guy high that you have to re-work his swing?

Lawlar was the pick!!!!!