Fangraphs top 100

[Frobby]

1. Henderson

9. Holliday

17. Rodriguez

36. Mayo

64. Hall

66. Ortiz

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

That’s the highest I’ve seen Mayo.  

Edited February 22, 2023 by Frobby

[Pickles]

I believe that's the first time Westburg has failed to make a list.

[Going Underground]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

1. Henderson

10. Holliday

17. Rodriguez

36. Mayo

64. Hall

66. Ortiz

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/

That’s the highest I’ve seen Mayo.  

Is Grayson lower on this list then others?

[RVAOsFan]

16 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I believe that's the first time Westburg has failed to make a list.

Cowser too I think, right?

[emmett16]

11 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Is Grayson lower on this list then others?

I think a lot has to do with him being 23+.  The shiny new toy lost just a little bit of it's luster.  At this point I don't care so much about the rankings; I just want him to come up and perform.  

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Is Grayson lower on this list then others?

I think Keith Law had him about there.   Reading the write-up, I think Longenhagen was influenced by the fact that Grayson’s stuff wasn’t as sharp when he returned from the lat strain.  Personally I’m not too worried about that.  

[Pickles]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

Cowser too I think, right?

Cowser missed another list or two.  Westburg had been shockingly stable, in the 60s or 70s, on every list of note put out so far iirc.

[emmett16]

Just now, RVAOsFan said:

Cowser too I think, right?

Seeing 20 y/o SS Lawlar at 15 is kind of painful, especially with the absence of Cowser from the list. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Pickles said:

Cowser missed another list or two.  Westburg had been shockingly stable, in the 60s or 70s, on every list of note put out so far iirc.

Yeah, it was kind of eerie.   

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Cowser too I think, right?

He wasn’t on Law’s list.

[Spy Fox]

Mayo's high placement is notable alongside this tidbit in the introduction:

Quote

We gravitate toward up-the-middle defenders littered all throughout the minor leagues, and really only tend to push corner bats onto the list when they’re close to the big leagues, or if we have an abnormal degree of confidence that they will continue to hit all the way through the minors. High-risk hitters with huge tools are also welcome since FV is a subjective way to factor both ceiling and risk into the same grade.

[btdart20]

15 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think a lot has to do with him being 23+.  The shiny new toy lost just a little bit of it's luster.  At this point I don't care so much about the rankings; I just want him to come up and perform.  

Agreed!  But still SP Pfaadt at #16 is older than Grayson.  

[Just Regular]

Cowser for me is a very Orioles-flavored style choice - it doesn't feel too surprising some list makers don't like him.

If he scuffles, it is probably going to give some of us DJ Stewart deja vu....I have a very keen eye for this pitch I can't hit.

[Frobby]

One of the interesting features of this list is the probability charts for each player.  For example, Gunnar’s distribution looks like this:

Bust 5%
40/45 7%
50/55 33%
60/65 30%
70+ 25%

You gotta love that.   The bust chances on the others are way higher:

Holliday 22%
Rodriguez 40%
Mayo 32%
Hall 25%
Ortiz 22%

The Rodriguez bust rate makes zero sense to me.  Higher than Hall’s?  No way.   I’ll have to dig around, but I think Fangraphs did these charts last year too  and Rodriguez had a way lower bust rate   .

 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You gotta love that.   The bust chances on the others are way higher:

Holliday 22%
Rodriguez 40%
Mayo 32%
Hall 25%
Ortiz 22%

The Rodriguez bust rate makes zero sense to me.  Higher than Hall’s?  No way.   I’ll have to dig around, but I think Fangraphs did these charts last year too  and Rodriguez had a way lower bust rate   .

I noticed that too. I thought at first they must be applying high bust rates to all the SPs, but Grayson's bust % was still higher than any of the other SPs near him on the list. 

I wonder if the gap between his and Hall's is partially because they're classifying Hall as a reliever.