“He is what he is?”: A study of players who had 10+ rWAR careers

[Frobby]

A lot of times I see posters who will declare about some 25-26 year old player, “he is what he is at this point.”   But how true is that?   To try to get a feel for it, I’m studying a group of position players who earned 10+ rWAR in their careers.  I intend to look at all position players who debuted from 2006-2010 who earned 10+ rWAR, but so far I’ve only looked at the 26 players from 2006 who reached that level.   

Needless to say, players who reach 10+ rWAR are a fraction of all players.  In 2006, for example, 77 position players debuted, but only 26 reached 10 rWAR in their careers.   Here is some data I’ve gathered on this group.

Debut age: The average was 23.0, but they varied widely.   Youngest was Adam Jones at age 20; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at age 27.

First 2 WAR season: the average was 24.7, so basically two years after debut. The youngest were Troy Tulowitzki, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at age 22.  Markakis, Mike Napoli (24), Andre Ethier (24) and Dan Uggla (26) produced 2+ rWAR in the season they debuted.  The oldest to have their first 2 WAR season were Ben Zobrist, Carlos Ruiz and Rajai Davis, at age 28.   Chris Young took the longest, producing a 2+ WAR season four years after he debuted.

Best WAR season: The average age was 27.5.   Youngest was Troy Tulowitzki, who had his best WAR season at age 22, his first full season.   The oldest was Carlos Ruiz, who had his best WAR year at 33.  Russell Martin (31), Howie Kendrick (30), and Andrew Ethier (33) also had their best WAR season in their 30’s.

Best 3 consecutive WAR seasons: the average was 27-29.   Earliest was our own Nick Markakis at 23-25; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at 31-33.   

Best 5 consecutive WAR seasons: On average this went from 25.6 - 29.6.  Earliest were Markakis, Stephen Drew and James Loney at 23-27; oldest was Ruiz again at 31-35.   

Best OPS+ season (400 PA minimum): averaged 27.3.  Markakis was youngest at 24; Ruiz oldest at 33.

Best 3 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 27.1-29.1.  Markakis and Ruiz were the high/low.

Best 5 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 26.0 - 30.0.  Nick was youngest at ages 22-26, Rajai Davis the oldest at 31-35.

Last 3 rWAR season: average was 29.6.   The youngest was again Markakis, who never had a 3+ rWAR season after age 24.  (Actually, James Loney accumulated 10+ rWAR without ever having a 3 WAR season.)  Oldest was Ben Zobrist at age 37.  14 of the 26 had a 3+ WAR season after age 30.

Last 2 rWAR season: average was 31.5.   Youngest were Matt Kemp and Chris Young, who had their last 2 rWAR seasons at age 27.   Oldest was Zobrist, again at 37.   Other oldies were Kendrys Morales at 35, and Ian Kinsler and Nick Markakis at 34.  (I felt the need to mention Nick there so that it wouldn’t seem like he did nothing after age 24!)  21 of the 26 players had a 2+ WAR season at age 30 or later.

Last 110 OPS+ season: average was 30.9.   Three of the 10+ WAR players never had one — Michael Bourn, Stephen Drew and Rajai Davis.  Otherwise, the youngest to have his last was Chris Ianetta at age 25; oldest was Zobrist again.  18 of the 26 had a 110+ season at age 30 or later.   

So, that’s the class of 2006.   It’s a slightly unusual group, with no serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.  (Kinzler produced the highest career rWAR at 54.1.)   But, I’m guessing it’s a pretty representative group with respect to the average age profiles and the fairly wide variety of career paths.  One thing I noticed was, a lot of these players never had 5 consecutive solid seasons.  The ones that did are generally the ones with the highest career WAR.

If anyone has questions for me about this group, let me know.  
 

[Jim'sKid26]

@Frobby, I would be interested in what source for each player; were they high school, college or international? Also, for the American players, what was their draft status?

Sounds like a lotto work. Thanks for doing it. 

[HbgOsFan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

A lot of times I see posters who will declare about some 25-26 year old player, “he is what he is at this point.”   But how true is that?   To try to get a feel for it, I’m studying a group of position players who earned 10+ rWAR in their careers.  I intend to look at all position players who debuted from 2006-2010 who earned 10+ rWAR, but so far I’ve only looked at the 26 players from 2006 who reached that level.   

Needless to say, players who reach 10+ rWAR are a fraction of all players.  In 2006, for example, 77 position players debuted, but only 26 reached 10 rWAR in their careers.   Here is some data I’ve gathered on this group.

Debut age: The average was 23.0, but they varied widely.   Youngest was Adam Jones at age 20; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at age 27.

First 2 WAR season: the average was 24.7, so basically two years after debut. The youngest were Troy Tulowitzki, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at age 22.  Markakis, Mike Napoli (24), Andre Ethier (24) and Dan Uggla (26) produced 2+ rWAR in the season they debuted.  The oldest to have their first 2 WAR season were Ben Zobrist, Carlos Ruiz and Rajai Davis, at age 28.   Chris Young took the longest, producing a 2+ WAR season four years after he debuted.

Best WAR season: The average age was 27.5.   Youngest was Troy Tulowitzki, who had his best WAR season at age 22, his first full season.   The oldest was Carlos Ruiz, who had his best WAR year at 33.  Russell Martin (31), Howie Kendrick (30), and Andrew Ethier (33) also had their best WAR season in their 30’s.

Best 3 consecutive WAR seasons: the average was 27-29.   Earliest was our own Nick Markakis at 23-25; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at 31-33.   

Best 5 consecutive WAR seasons: On average this went from 25.6 - 29.6.  Earliest were Markakis, Stephen Drew and James Loney at 23-27; oldest was Ruiz again at 31-35.   

Best OPS+ season (400 PA minimum): averaged 27.3.  Markakis was youngest at 24; Ruiz oldest at 33.

Best 3 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 27.1-29.1.  Markakis and Ruiz were the high/low.

Best 5 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 26.0 - 30.0.  Nick was youngest at ages 22-26, Rajai Davis the oldest at 31-35.

Last 3 rWAR season: average was 29.6.   The youngest was again Markakis, who never had a 3+ rWAR season after age 24.  (Actually, James Loney accumulated 10+ rWAR without ever having a 3 WAR season.)  Oldest was Ben Zobrist at age 37.  14 of the 26 had a 3+ WAR season after age 30.

Last 2 rWAR season: average was 31.5.   Youngest were Matt Kemp and Chris Young, who had their last 2 rWAR seasons at age 27.   Oldest was Zobrist, again at 37.   Other oldies were Kendrys Morales at 35, and Ian Kinsler and Nick Markakis at 34.  (I felt the need to mention Nick there so that it wouldn’t seem like he did nothing after age 24!)  21 of the 26 players had a 2+ WAR season at age 30 or later.

Last 110 OPS+ season: average was 30.9.   Three of the 10+ WAR players never had one — Michael Bourn, Stephen Drew and Rajai Davis.  Otherwise, the youngest to have his last was Chris Ianetta at age 25; oldest was Zobrist again.  18 of the 26 had a 110+ season at age 30 or later.   

So, that’s the class of 2006.   It’s a slightly unusual group, with no serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.  (Kinzler produced the highest career rWAR at 54.1.)   But, I’m guessing it’s a pretty representative group with respect to the average age profiles and the fairly wide variety of career paths.  One thing I noticed was, a lot of these players never had 5 consecutive solid seasons.  The ones that did are generally the ones with the highest career WAR.

If anyone has questions for me about this group, let me know.  
 

The only question I have is how can anyone not realize the value you bring to this website.  Your retirement is our added gain.  This is great stuff, and as usual, you do your research.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, HbgOsFan said:

The only question I have is how can anyone not realize the value you bring to this website.  Your retirement is our added gain.  This is great stuff, and as usual, you do your research.

I don't know anyone that has ever suggested otherwise.

Frankly I question where you even got the idea.

[HbgOsFan]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know anyone that has ever suggested otherwise.

Frankly I question where you even got the idea.

Good point.  I'll wait until 2027 before posting again.

[Jagwar]

46 minutes ago, HbgOsFan said:

Good point.  I'll wait until 2027 before posting again.

Pay no attention to CoC. Sometimes he likes to poke bears just to see if they stay asleep or awaken. 

[sevastras]

4 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Pay no attention to CoC. Sometimes he likes to poke bears just to see if they stay asleep or awaken. 

He will also reverse his position just to argue the other side for the sake of arguing.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, sevastras said:

He will also reverse his position just to argue the other side for the sake of arguing.

 

Well, if I making one argument and certain other posters agree with me, I realize I must have some error in my thought process to reach the same conclusion they did.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

A lot of times I see posters who will declare about some 25-26 year old player, “he is what he is at this point.”   But how true is that?   To try to get a feel for it, I’m studying a group of position players who earned 10+ rWAR in their careers.  I intend to look at all position players who debuted from 2006-2010 who earned 10+ rWAR, but so far I’ve only looked at the 26 players from 2006 who reached that level.   

Needless to say, players who reach 10+ rWAR are a fraction of all players.  In 2006, for example, 77 position players debuted, but only 26 reached 10 rWAR in their careers.   Here is some data I’ve gathered on this group.

Debut age: The average was 23.0, but they varied widely.   Youngest was Adam Jones at age 20; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at age 27.

First 2 WAR season: the average was 24.7, so basically two years after debut. The youngest were Troy Tulowitzki, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones at age 22.  Markakis, Mike Napoli (24), Andre Ethier (24) and Dan Uggla (26) produced 2+ rWAR in the season they debuted.  The oldest to have their first 2 WAR season were Ben Zobrist, Carlos Ruiz and Rajai Davis, at age 28.   Chris Young took the longest, producing a 2+ WAR season four years after he debuted.

Best WAR season: The average age was 27.5.   Youngest was Troy Tulowitzki, who had his best WAR season at age 22, his first full season.   The oldest was Carlos Ruiz, who had his best WAR year at 33.  Russell Martin (31), Howie Kendrick (30), and Andrew Ethier (33) also had their best WAR season in their 30’s.

Best 3 consecutive WAR seasons: the average was 27-29.   Earliest was our own Nick Markakis at 23-25; oldest was Carlos Ruiz at 31-33.   

Best 5 consecutive WAR seasons: On average this went from 25.6 - 29.6.  Earliest were Markakis, Stephen Drew and James Loney at 23-27; oldest was Ruiz again at 31-35.   

Best OPS+ season (400 PA minimum): averaged 27.3.  Markakis was youngest at 24; Ruiz oldest at 33.

Best 3 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 27.1-29.1.  Markakis and Ruiz were the high/low.

Best 5 consecutive OPS+ seasons: 26.0 - 30.0.  Nick was youngest at ages 22-26, Rajai Davis the oldest at 31-35.

Last 3 rWAR season: average was 29.6.   The youngest was again Markakis, who never had a 3+ rWAR season after age 24.  (Actually, James Loney accumulated 10+ rWAR without ever having a 3 WAR season.)  Oldest was Ben Zobrist at age 37.  14 of the 26 had a 3+ WAR season after age 30.

Last 2 rWAR season: average was 31.5.   Youngest were Matt Kemp and Chris Young, who had their last 2 rWAR seasons at age 27.   Oldest was Zobrist, again at 37.   Other oldies were Kendrys Morales at 35, and Ian Kinsler and Nick Markakis at 34.  (I felt the need to mention Nick there so that it wouldn’t seem like he did nothing after age 24!)  21 of the 26 players had a 2+ WAR season at age 30 or later.

Last 110 OPS+ season: average was 30.9.   Three of the 10+ WAR players never had one — Michael Bourn, Stephen Drew and Rajai Davis.  Otherwise, the youngest to have his last was Chris Ianetta at age 25; oldest was Zobrist again.  18 of the 26 had a 110+ season at age 30 or later.   

So, that’s the class of 2006.   It’s a slightly unusual group, with no serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.  (Kinzler produced the highest career rWAR at 54.1.)   But, I’m guessing it’s a pretty representative group with respect to the average age profiles and the fairly wide variety of career paths.  One thing I noticed was, a lot of these players never had 5 consecutive solid seasons.  The ones that did are generally the ones with the highest career WAR.

If anyone has questions for me about this group, let me know.  
 

Wow.  Here is a guy with a very active mind.  But you did not state a conclusion for the 2006 group.

It all sounds pretty normal.   Some very talent players are good in their early 20s.  Overall average peak in in their 27th year.   Some continue being good into their early 30s.  That is about what baseball people have been saying for some years now.

The weird thing about it is that owners and GMs had learned that giving long term contracts to players into their mid to later 30s was a bad idea.   But they forgot all that this off season and went back to long term contracts.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Wow.  Here is a guy with a very active mind.  But you did not state a conclusion for the 2006 group.

It all sounds pretty normal.   Some very talent players are good in their early 20s.  Overall average peak in in their 27th year.   Some continue being good into their early 30s.  That is about what baseball people have been saying for some years now.

The weird thing about it is that owners and GMs had learned that giving long term contracts to players into their mid to later 30s was a bad idea.   But they forgot all that this off season and went back to long term contracts.

I don't think any of the deals strikes me as overly outrageous.  Not like the deals for Davis deal, the Cabrera contract, or the Zito deal with SF where you just shake your head.  I think the Judge one has the most chance to be really bad since I question how well a human that size can hold up physically as he ages.

If you have an owner who prioritizes winning, they are sometimes willing to do a deal they know won't end well.

[Aristotelian]

I would be curious to take a larger sample of 1-2 WAR guys and see how many made a leap to say 4-6 WAR.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Wow.  Here is a guy with a very active mind.  But you did not state a conclusion for the 2006 group.

It all sounds pretty normal.   Some very talent players are good in their early 20s.  Overall average peak in in their 27th year.   Some continue being good into their early 30s.  That is about what baseball people have been saying for some years now.

The weird thing about it is that owners and GMs had learned that giving long term contracts to players into their mid to later 30s was a bad idea.   But they forgot all that this off season and went back to long term contracts.

I am going to save any big conclusions until I’ve looked at the whole five year period I want to study.   One year can be kind of fluky.  Five years can still be a little fluky, but less so.

You’re absolutely right there were no huge surprises in the 2006 sample.  We all know what the averages are.  I’m more interested in knowing how many players differ significantly from the average, and who they were.  

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

@Frobby, I would be interested in what source for each player; were they high school, college or international? Also, for the American players, what was their draft status?

Sounds like a lotto work. Thanks for doing it. 

In this group of 26, there were only five international signees.  Of the 21 draftees, six were first rounders.   The top rWAR player, Ian Kinzler, was a 17th rounder.  Rajai Davis was a 38th rounder.  

I haven’t had a chance to do a HS/college breakdown.
 

[sevastras]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think any of the deals strikes me as overly outrageous.  Not like the deals for Davis deal, the Cabrera contract, or the Zito deal with SF where you just shake your head.  I think the Judge one has the most chance to be really bad since I question how well a human that size can hold up physically as he ages.

If you have an owner who prioritizes winning, they are sometimes willing to do a deal they know won't end well.

I don’t think the Zito contract was bad on the surface, I think the work ethic and makeup weren’t there. Who really knew he would rather surf and play around than work on what he was paid to do?  Then again, you are paying someone a ton of money and someone should dive deep prior to committing those sums. 

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, HbgOsFan said:

The only question I have is how can anyone not realize the value you bring to this website.  Your retirement is our added gain.  This is great stuff, and as usual, you do your research.

That is very kind of you to say.  I do enjoy the fact that I have more time to dig into things when I get curious.