Kyle Bradish 2023

[johnrambo]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And this is a big reason why the NEED for an ace in the playoffs is overrated. Obviously you want the best players you can but I feel good about a few of our starters in the playoffs. Want to upgrade  for sure but not a slam dunk that an upgrade is available at a price that’s worth it.

Just need some more prospects so that we can bench our veterans.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

Just need some more prospects so that we can bench our veterans.

Hey guys look, Mr Splash has like his 4th screen name.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

Just need some more prospects so that we can bench our veterans.

It was sort of funny the first time.  

Back on topic, Bradish has made a pretty effective transition from struggling prospect/rookie to reliable pitcher.  A year ago today, he had a 7.38 ERA as a major leaguer.   He got it turned around when he returned from the IL and hasn’t looked back.   I’m hoping for something similar from Grayson Rodriguez.  
 

[johnrambo]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hey guys look, Mr Splash has like his 4th screen name.

Mr. Splash posts here?

[Baltimorecuse]

There's an old saying in baseball that says you can never have enough pitching.  The core 4 have been able to answer the bell the whole season, almost.  A solid 5th pitcher would be some insurance.  

I was looking at RPG alllowed last night.  From the league average to the best is about a half run per game.  Those in the upper half are coincidentally the better teams.  The best are the division leaders, with a couple of exceptions.  It's no secret that pitching rules.  

[interloper]

Are there any Bradish non-believers left around here? Because there were quite a few who thought he was a future reliever or back-end SP at best. I tried to tell y'all! 

Edited July 17, 2023 by interloper

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Are there any Bradish non-believers left around here? Because there were quite a few who thought he was a future reliever or back-end SP at best. I tried to tell y'all! 

I'm not a non-believer.  I just want to see how he bounces back from a bad start the next time he has one.

I'd also like to see a slight uptick in the K rate.  But overall, he's been very encouraging.

[Just Regular]

It was just yesterday I bumped into the note he led MLB in June Stuff+.

After yesterday, you don't even need to segment the year....90 innings deep, it thinks the MLB Top 5 are Strider, Bradish, Gerrit, Shohei, Burnes.     Can we issue a verdict on the Bundy trade?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=90&type=36&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=13,d

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It was just yesterday I bumped into the note he led MLB in June Stuff+.

After yesterday, you don't even need to segment the year....90 innings deep, it thinks the MLB Top 5 are Strider, Bradish, Gerrit, Shohei, Burnes.     Can we issue a verdict on the Bundy trade?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=90&type=36&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=13,d

We're pretty close to being able to issue a verdict IMO.

Bundy WAR as an Oriole: 6.3 over 4 seasons (plus that tiny cup of coffee out of the bullpen). 

Bradish WAR as an Oriole: 2.8 over 2 seasons.

The big difference is Bundy threw a ton of innings (relatively) over those 4 years. If Bradish continues at this pace, he will easily be the more valuable player in that span of time. 

But more than that, we traded Bundy at the exact right time before he fell of a cliff and was a negative value player. So it's not even like it's Bundy vs Bradish. It's Bradish vs whatever we had in the minors to replace Bundy (nothing), or whatever value Bundy would have provided if we extended him (nothing). 

[panick]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

We're pretty close to being able to issue a verdict IMO.

Bundy WAR as an Oriole: 6.3 over 4 seasons (plus that tiny cup of coffee out of the bullpen). 

Bradish WAR as an Oriole: 2.8 over 2 seasons.

The big difference is Bundy threw a ton of innings (relatively) over those 4 years. If Bradish continues at this pace, he will easily be the more valuable player in that span of time. 

But more than that, we traded Bundy at the exact right time before he fell of a cliff and was a negative value player. So it's not even like it's Bundy vs Bradish. It's Bradish vs whatever we had in the minors to replace Bundy (nothing), or whatever value Bundy would have provided if we extended him (nothing). 

Shouldn't the guy the O's still have in the minors be included on the Orioles' side of this debate?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, panick said:

Shouldn't the guy the O's still have in the minors be included on the Orioles' side of this debate?

Sure.  Both had TJ surgery.  Brnovich just started his rehab.  Peek is not back yet.   Not too much is expected from either but you never know.

[Billy F-Face3]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Sure.  Both had TJ surgery.  Brnovich just started his rehab.  Peek is not back yet.   Not too much is expected from either but you never know.

Brnovich dominated his rehab start the other day. That's an encouraging sign.

[Just Regular]

36 minutes ago, panick said:

Shouldn't the guy the O's still have in the minors be included on the Orioles' side of this debate?

It is great that Bradish is almost halfway to Bundy's BAL production, but Bundy's LAA production might be the measure to look at.      Dylan Bundy almost helped LAA into the 2020 AL's top 8 teams.

It has occurred more at the MLB level, but in its own way the Bradish breakout now in progress is another data point to plop next to Gunnar/Mayo/Felix/Cano/Basallo at the talent tier adjacent to aircraft carriers like Adley/Kjerstad/Cowser/Holliday.       He's an inning shy of qualifying for another minute but after next turn he might leapfrog Tyler Wells on the AL ERA leaderboard if the Rays don't blow him up.

[Malike]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It is great that Bradish is almost halfway to Bundy's BAL production, but Bundy's LAA production might be the measure to look at.      Dylan Bundy almost helped LAA into the 2020 AL's top 8 teams.

It has occurred more at the MLB level, but in its own way the Bradish breakout now in progress is another data point to plop next to Gunnar/Mayo/Felix/Cano/Basallo at the talent tier adjacent to aircraft carriers like Adley/Kjerstad/Cowser/Holliday.       He's an inning shy of qualifying for another minute but after next turn he might leapfrog Tyler Wells on the AL ERA leaderboard if the Rays don't blow him up.

I see what you are saying, but they played 70 games in 2020. The Angels were not a great team in 2020, despite Bundy's herculean 1.7 WAR. If we want to look at his LAA production he gave them 1.4 WAR over 2 seasons.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Malike

[nvpacchi]

Thinking out loud about Bradish... ever since he came back from the IL last July, he's pitched 162 innings with a 3.15 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 22.7% K% and 7.8 BB% = 14.9 K-BB.  That's a quality pitcher, had he done that over one season rather than split over two would be getting a lot more league wide hype.

The slider becoming "the" pitch, and everything playing off of that feels like something no team would've implemented 10 years ago, but here we are!  He's a unicorn in a way that an offspeed pitch is his most frequently used pitch (ignoring the fact that I'm not adding his 4seam and sinker usage together).  I wonder if that's what makes his stuff metric so good now?  The curve and change playing off the slider which has much more lateral movement that his hard stuff?

Nonetheless, I'm trying to spit ball on what Bradish can do to get better? He doesn't really get batters to chase, and he "only" generates swinging strikes at a league average rate.  Though his slider (17% swing-strike-rate) and curve (15% swing-strike-rate) does help to give him two distinct out pitches.

His slider is so dominant given that no one who throws it that hard is able to generate so much horizontal movement.  His ability to get so much lateral movement on the slider has to have something to do with his release point and why his four seam cuts instead of fades into righties.  Any mechanical tweak probably keeps the delta between his slider and four-seam horizontal movement at 10", so why fix what is perhaps the best slider in the game?

Location - these don't look like the best locations for a fastball that doesn't generate great ride (especially given his arm slot).  But then again, all three of his other pitches are already down-in-zone pitches, so it makes sense to have something he can keep up in the zone to change eye levels.  Yet despite maybe "inferior" locations on his fastball and middling swinging-strike rates, he has been able to locate it well enough.  If my math is right a 29% CSW on the four-seam - a 7% swing strike rate = a 22% called strike rate on the 4-seam.  A 29% CSW is still league average and absolutely works if the slider generates all the whiffs.  With Yesterday's game being the perfect example, only 9 whiffs, but still 8 Ks because he put the ball where he needed to - generating 23 called strikes.

His non-dominant four seam may hold him back from ever becoming a top-shelf rotation piece, but I'm completely fine with a guy generate a low 3 ERA, and mid 3 FIP that can go deep into games cause he doesn't walk guys.  Its been fun watching him develop like this!