Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[foxfield]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Others have already pointed out that Hays and Mateo got a good bit of kudos while in the minors.   I’ll leave that to the side and just go back to my point.  The 5 prospects you mentioned are all on one or more top 100 lists, which is great.   I think only Cowser has appeared in a top 50, and some don’t list him in the top 100.   So, I think if you look at comparable past prospects around MLB, I think you’ll be surprised at how low the “hit rate” is on those types of players.   Better than an unranked prospect?   Yes.  But the odds of even that type of player turning out to be an above average major league starter are not really that high.   Here’s the best research I’ve seen on the topic.   Bottom line, the odds suggest that only one of the five will be a 10+ WAR player, and if two of them are, we’ll be beating the odds.   Of course, I hope they all turn out to be “difference makers” but we can’t really expect it.  

This is great analysis Frobby and I agree with every word.  But I think as fans, we cant help it... many here certainly do expect it and that's fine...that's what we do.  Shouldn't...but it's very difficult not to.

You can take it the reverse way as well.  If only one of the top 5 becomes a valuable player...which is what the odds suggest.  Everyone here will be devastated...even if they comprehend the odds.  I would guess that if at least two of them don't become a 10+ WAR player....the odds won't matter...the mood will be pretty dour.

I think we get it in theory....but the fanatic in all us expects probably somewhere around 3 of 5 to hit.  

And if I am out in left field then the above is my own failure to reconcile odds and expectations.....

Edited March 5, 2023 by foxfield

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

This is great analysis Frobby and I agree with every word.  But I think as fans, we cant help it... many here certainly do expect it and that's fine...that's what we do.  Shouldn't...but it's very difficult not to.

You can take it the reverse way as well.  If only one of the top 5 becomes a valuable player...which is what the odds suggest.  Everyone here will be devastated...even if they comprehend the odds.  I would guess that if at least two of them don't become a 10+ WAR player....the odds won't matter...the mood will be pretty dour.

I think we get it in theory....but the fanatic in all us expects probably somewhere around 3 of 5 to hit.  

And if I am out in left field then the above is my own failure to reconcile odds and expectations.....

Equally, even though we know the average player peak is 27, we tell ourselves that our players will still be good in their early 30’s.  Some will, most won’t.  So the prospect vs. veteran debate suffers from dual delusions.   

[sevastras]

8 hours ago, foxfield said:

This is great analysis Frobby and I agree with every word.  But I think as fans, we cant help it... many here certainly do expect it and that's fine...that's what we do.  Shouldn't...but it's very difficult not to.

You can take it the reverse way as well.  If only one of the top 5 becomes a valuable player...which is what the odds suggest.  Everyone here will be devastated...even if they comprehend the odds.  I would guess that if at least two of them don't become a 10+ WAR player....the odds won't matter...the mood will be pretty dour.

I think we get it in theory....but the fanatic in all us expects probably somewhere around 3 of 5 to hit.  

And if I am out in left field then the above is my own failure to reconcile odds and expectations.....

In theory, we have Adley and Henderson so the next 8 prospects won’t be any good. Or maybe the three decades of prospects not panning out the way we had hoped is evening out and the Os will have a string of ones that do. Or the analytics are better than in the past, or the front office is better at evaluating talent. Or Elias is actually McFly and he went to the future and already knew these players were going to be good. 

[Tony-OH]

On 3/2/2023 at 2:30 PM, LTO's said:

And I'm replying because you always mention him without fail. I don't think Elias can do no wrong but if this is the best example of him being wrong I think we're in great shape. He basically had a fluke year's worth of games of being really good and outside of that, he's been about as good as Austin Hays who most think should be traded immediately. 

Unfortunately, it's not. And after this season, we will have a bigger mistake to discuss. That's not to say Elias is bad, but you can definitely argue signing and then playing Odor all season, not getting anything of value back for Castro, then playing Aguilar as mistakes to track as well. Clearly, we don't know how the Frazier signing will turn out, but paying him $8 million when he had Urias, Westburg and Vavra ready and Ortiz potentially ready won't make sense unless Frazier tears it up and those guys struggle this year.

At the end of the day, there are those who do believe Elias and his crew are infallible, but they are not. He's done an excellent job in packing the farm system with talent and I like his first real "prospect" for major league player trade with the Irvin-Hernaiz trade, but he still has a lot to prove when it comes to putting a perennial winning/playoff caliber team on the major league field. That will come with time. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Unfortunately, it's not. And after this season, we will have a bigger mistake to discuss. That's not to say Elias is bad, but you can definitely argue signing and then playing Odor all season, not getting anything of value back for Castro, then playing Aguilar as mistakes to track as well. Clearly, we don't know how the Frazier signing will turn out, but paying him $8 million when he had Urias, Westburg and Vavra ready and Ortiz potentially ready won't make sense unless Frazier tears it up and those guys struggle this year.

At the end of the day, there are those who do believe Elias and his crew are infallible, but they are not. He's done an excellent job in packing the farm system with talent and I like his first real "prospect" for major league player trade with the Irvin-Hernaiz trade, but he still has a lot to prove when it comes to putting a perennial winning/playoff caliber team on the major league field. That will come with time. 

What if signing Frazier gives the team a 7th year of Westburg and Ortiz?   And then mid year they can trade Frazier.  

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What if signing Frazier gives the team a 7th year of Westburg and Ortiz?   And then mid year they can trade Frazier.  

They could have done that without signing anyone. 

[LTO's]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Unfortunately, it's not. And after this season, we will have a bigger mistake to discuss. That's not to say Elias is bad, but you can definitely argue signing and then playing Odor all season, not getting anything of value back for Castro, then playing Aguilar as mistakes to track as well. Clearly, we don't know how the Frazier signing will turn out, but paying him $8 million when he had Urias, Westburg and Vavra ready and Ortiz potentially ready won't make sense unless Frazier tears it up and those guys struggle this year.

None of these are that bad. In terms of potential value lost, the Yaz trade clears all of these by a mile. Why didn't you just say that Frazier was the worst move he's made (for the 100th time) instead of reaching on moves that really were marginal at best?

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

What if signing Frazier gives the team a 7th year of Westburg and Ortiz?   And then mid year they can trade Frazier.  

If he's worried about getting the 31-year old years of Westburg and Ortiz then the Orioles have bigger issues than we think financially.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, LTO's said:

None of these are that bad. In terms of potential value lost, the Yaz trade clears all of these by a mile. Why didn't you just say that Frazier was the worst move he's made (for the 100th time) instead of reaching on moves that really were marginal at best?

I was just showing other bad moves, not to say any of these were worse than the Yaz move (which to his defense, no one saw coming). Time will tell on Frazier, but we don't need to discuss the merits of his signing once again. Our positions are well known by a quick post search though this offseason. lol

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I was just showing other bad moves, not to say any of these were worse than the Yaz move (which to his defense, no one saw coming). Time will tell on Frazier, but we don't need to discuss the merits of his signing once again. Our positions are well known by a quick post search though this offseason. lol

Fair. In my opinion, Cade Povich is the most important player returned in a trade in regards to Elias legacy so far.  If he's not a big league contributor, that might be his worst trade. 

[btdart20]

On 3/5/2023 at 4:22 AM, sevastras said:

In theory, we have Adley and Henderson so the next 8 prospects won’t be any good. Or maybe the three decades of prospects not panning out the way we had hoped is evening out and the Os will have a string of ones that do. Or the analytics are better than in the past, or the front office is better at evaluating talent. Or Elias is actually McFly and he went to the future and already knew these players were going to be good. 

Is this a "choose your multiverse adventure"?  

[Tony-OH]

Just now, LTO's said:

Fair. In my opinion, Cade Povich is the most important player returned in a trade in regards to Elias legacy so far.  If he's not a big league contributor, that might be his worst trade. 

I'm on record as being very positive on the returns he was able to get for Lopez and Mancini. Povich and Johnson were good gets and the rest are good arms or young pitches to work with by the organization. 

Even if for what ever reason they don't pan out, the return values based on the players and contracts were good. 

[Tony-OH]

On 3/5/2023 at 4:22 AM, sevastras said:

In theory, we have Adley and Henderson so the next 8 prospects won’t be any good. Or maybe the three decades of prospects not panning out the way we had hoped is evening out and the Os will have a string of ones that do. Or the analytics are better than in the past, or the front office is better at evaluating talent. Or Elias is actually McFly and he went to the future and already knew these players were going to be good. 

We can only hope!

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Fair. In my opinion, Cade Povich is the most important player returned in a trade in regards to Elias legacy so far.  If he's not a big league contributor, that might be his worst trade. 

For me getting Bradish in the Bundy trade is bigger.

 

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

If he's worried about getting the 31-year old years of Westburg and Ortiz then the Orioles have bigger issues than we think financially.

Probably more concerned about trading Westburg and Ortiz at age 29 instead of 28.

Edited March 6, 2023 by wildcard

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

If he's worried about getting the 31-year old years of Westburg and Ortiz then the Orioles have bigger issues than we think financially.

I think the sports landscape in general is not looking as lucrative as it once was. We all know about MASN, but attendance and viewership are struggling across many sports. I know we also have the Angelos issue, but I think there are more substantial unknowns even than those two.