Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[LTO's]

Rosenthal has a piece on the Athletic focusing solely on the Orioles and how they are planning for the future. Not a lot of new revelations or anything but I had not heard Elias say this and found it interesting. Link to article below. 

Not normally given to hyperbole, Elias says the Orioles’ top 10 prospects are “the deepest I’ve been around” — no small statement from an executive who, during his time in the Astros’ front office, played a major role in building a system that produced Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr., Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. 

https://theathletic.com/4267080/2023/03/02/orioles-prospects-outlook-rosenthal/

[Sports Guy]

Love the attitude of Mayo here:

“I don’t think any position is ever blocked, I really don’t,” said Mayo, 21, the Orioles’ fourth-round pick in 2020. “Of course you’ll have guys who most likely will not get moved, like Adley and Gunnar. But I think if you work hard and you’re hitting and you’re doing what you need to do on defense, a spot will open up for you regardless of where you’re playing.”

[Moose Milligan]

This was a good article, it illustrated how deep the system is, especially from an offensive perspective and how we're going to eventually need to part with some of these guys in a trade to bring in someone like Corbin Burnes.

I hope Mayo mashes and makes Mountcastle expendable.

[Sports Guy]

The article states what I have been saying..you have to trade out of this depth.  If you don’t, you will surely lose value and see opportunities pass you by.

 

[Sports Guy]

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

[Sanfran327]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

I agree with everything you said here, except I have a hard time envisioning what the vets could bring back that's more valuable than what they are or who we have. Meaning, I don't think a 2, 3, or even 4:1 trade brings back an all star-caliber player, which is what I think your goal is. I'm just not sure who would make that trade, even on a bad team with a good player. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Sanfran327 said:

I agree with everything you said here, except I have a hard time envisioning what the vets could bring back that's more valuable than what they are or who we have. Meaning, I don't think a 2, 3, or even 4:1 trade brings back an all star-caliber player, which is what I think your goal is. I'm just not sure who would make that trade, even on a bad team with a good player. 

Well I think that’s why you sprinkle in a prospect here and there.

But I also think there are secondary pieces that are important. A key bullpen arm, 4th OFer, back end starter, etc…that those guys can also help you get.

We should not be spending much money for the last 10 guys or so on the roster. We should be able to trade for and/or develop those guys.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

I need to do some thinking on the excellent questions you posed.  I did want to say, however, that I’m not ready to put Holliday in the “sure thing” category.   For sure, all the markers are there - 1:1 pick, family pedigree, encouraging 2022 performance.   But there are many examples of 1:1 picks who got derailed for one reason or another — injuries, a flaw exposed at the higher levels, personal problems, etc.  So I’m not creating a plan that revolves around Holliday being our starting SS in 2025 just yet, even though that’s what we are expecting.   We need a plan that addresses 2023 and 2024 and leaves us some flexibility for 2025 and beyond at SS.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I need to do some thinking on the excellent questions you posed.  I did want to say, however, that I’m not ready to put Holliday in the “sure thing” category.   For sure, all the markers are there - 1:1 pick, family pedigree, encouraging 2022 performance.   But there are many examples of 1:1 picks who got derailed for one reason or another — injuries, a flaw exposed at the higher levels, personal problems, etc.  So I’m not creating a plan that revolves around Holliday being our starting SS in 2025 just yet, even though that’s what we are expecting.   We need a plan that addresses 2023 and 2024 and leaves us some flexibility for 2025 and beyond at SS.

Well Ortiz is that guy. But make no mistake about it, the plan is 100% for Holliday to be the starting SS by then.

I agree with you about injuries, et al but the decision making process of that position long term revolves around Holliday without question.

[CaptDbog]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

I am perfectly okay trading everyone in the group (bolded) besides Mullins. I think he will continue to be a 3.5 to 5 bwar for the next 4 to 5 years. He is 28 this season but I don't think he will decline rapidly, like, AJ did.  Mullins' skills don't grow on trees and has a good track record. 

[The Goob]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

I would generally agree with this.  I think C, 3B and SS are set with Adley, Henderson and Holiday by 2025.  I think Ortiz is the SS by midseason after he "graduates" from AAA and then move to 2B when Holiday is ready.  I would trade Mateo today or as soon as I was offered something that I valued in return.  I am not worried about 1B because I believe someone between Westburg, Mayo, Norby and even Stowers will end up there based on their bats with DH also likely being filled from one of these guys.  If the goal is to go deep in the playoffs in 2024 & 2025 (which is what I believe it should be)  I would give Mountcastle two to three months to bounce back and then trade him as well. That sets the infield and DH.

For the OF I think by 2024 Cowser & Kjerstad will be ready.  I have a strong feeling Kjerstad is going to blow everyone away this year and make a huge leap.  With those two coming I think you can look to trade Hays and Santander.  I would keep Mullins because I value his defense in CF and allowing Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers, to play the corners will provide overall outstanding defense.

For 2024

CF - Mullins

C- Rautschman

3B - Henderson

1B - Mayo

2B - Westburg

DH - Stowers

SS - Ortiz

LF - Cowser

RF - Kjerstad

Then in 2025 Holiday is added to he mix and SS, 2B, DH is handled between him, Ortiz, Westburg and Stowers

Obviously some of these guys will not reach their ceilings which could open a spot for someone like Norby, Basallo or you add a specific free agent if you have a hole.

While the playoff in 2023 would be great for me it is about figuring out which pieces fit and getting value for guys like Mouncastle, Hays, Mateo, Urias and Santander that I believe can be replaced with similar production by the middle of the year. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptDbog said:

I am perfectly okay trading everyone in the group (bolded) besides Mullins. I think he will continue to be a 3.5 to 5 bwar for the next 4 to 5 years. He is 28 this season but I don't think he will decline rapidly, like, AJ did.  Mullins' skills don't grow on trees and has a good track record. 

Why don’t you think he will decline?

First of all, Father Time catches up to you and he won’t be as fast or as athletic at 32 as he is at 28. 
 

Secondly, he has yet to prove that he isn’t a platoon guy.

I also think if he loses speed and range and has to move from CF, his value drops significantly at a COF spot.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, The Goob said:

I would generally agree with this.  I think C, 3B and SS are set with Adley, Henderson and Holiday by 2025.  I think Ortiz is the SS by midseason after he "graduates" from AAA and then move to 2B when Holiday is ready.  I would trade Mateo today or as soon as I was offered something that I valued in return.  I am not worried about 1B because I believe someone between Westburg, Mayo, Norby and even Stowers will end up there based on their bats with DH also likely being filled from one of these guys.  If the goal is to go deep in the playoffs in 2024 & 2025 (which is what I believe it should be)  I would give Mountcastle two to three months to bounce back and then trade him as well. That sets the infield and DH.

For the OF I think by 2024 Cowser & Kjerstad will be ready.  I have a strong feeling Kjerstad is going to blow everyone away this year and make a huge leap.  With those two coming I think you can look to trade Hays and Santander.  I would keep Mullins because I value his defense in CF and allowing Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers, to play the corners will provide overall outstanding defense.

For 2024

CF - Mullins

C- Rautschman

3B - Henderson

1B - Mayo

2B - Westburg

DH - Stowers

SS - Ortiz

LF - Cowser

RF - Kjerstad

Then in 2025 Holiday is added to he mix and SS, 2B, DH is handled between him, Ortiz, Westburg and Stowers

Obviously some of these guys will not reach their ceilings which could open a spot for someone like Norby, Basallo or you add a specific free agent if you have a hole.

While the playoff in 2023 would be great for me it is about figuring out which pieces fit and getting value for guys like Mouncastle, Hays, Mateo, Urias and Santander that I believe can be replaced with similar production by the middle of the year. 

The Stowers to first base stuff is a good point. I know Tony has mentioned this as well.

Mayo Vs Stowers (and maybe Kjerstad as well) in terms of where is defense better for each guy is something to watch for sure.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, CaptDbog said:

I am perfectly okay trading everyone in the group (bolded) besides Mullins. I think he will continue to be a 3.5 to 5 bwar for the next 4 to 5 years. He is 28 this season but I don't think he will decline rapidly, like, AJ did.  Mullins' skills don't grow on trees and has a good track record. 

Just based on the study I’ve started of players who accumulate 10+ rWAR in their careers, I’d say expecting 3.5 - 5.0 rWAR from Mullins in each of the next 4-5 years is extremely optimistic.  It’s not impossible, but not likely.   Honestly if he accumulates another 9 WAR in his career (he’s at 9.2 now), he’s probably beating the odds.  

[Es4M11]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

In the infield in an ideal world where Henderson and Holliday are locked in as your 3B & SS going forward and the rest of the prospects develop nicely, I think there are several moves to be made. I would lean toward Ortiz as my 2B of the future if he can hit at the MLB level. Leverage Westburg as a Super Utility in the mold of a Ben Zobrist to spell guys all over the diamond while keeping a productive bat in the lineup while giving the starters a rest. Look to trade Norby or convert to 1B possibly. Mountcastle should be given an opportunity to bounce back, but I wouldn't be too attached to him with Mayo, Norby, and even Kjerstad as all possibilities to find time at 1B in the future. I see Mayo and Kjerstad as future 1B/DH types and both can rotate those two spots - there are better options for the outfield than these two. Mateo, Urias, Mountcastle are all trade chips.

In the outfield Santander & Hays are defeinite trade material, possibly as soon as this deadline. An outfield of Cowser, Mullins, Stowers from left to right as early as July, and going into 2024. if Fabian is legit I'm looking to move Mullins for good value as soon as possible. Beavers and Stowers could battle for a spot in 2024. I would look to focus some effort to acquire more high upside talent for the outfield  with the aforementioned trade chips and future draft capital.

As of now, the only prospect I'm really looking to trade is Norby. But it will soon be time to move on from a bunch of these vets IMO.