Early spring bullpen thoughts

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree with this. We forget, Hall was looking dominant and ready for promotion at the All Star as a starter last year. Everyone on this board was calling for his promotion. Then they did that weird 1 inning start after the break that seemed to mess him up, he had two horrible starts in a row, a meh start, and another horrible one. At that point he got promoted as a reliever. Not sure if they messed him up or if he was out of gas at that point but up til then he looked bona fide. If he can put together a good stretch like the beginning of last year, he could be the next man up when there is an injury, or give Grayson a rest when he hits his limit.

All of this is good stuff. I agree with all of it.

It is funny how people forget that stretch when everyone was ready for him to come up. He still had too many walks but he also looked too good for AAA and then it fell apart.

[btdart20]

15 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Losers of the Norfolk rotation.  Baumann and Vallimont?   Reid Griffin?, Cano, Hoffman, Vespi, Darwinzon Hernandez,  Bazardo, Ofreidy Garcia.

I like Vespi.  Bazardo is serviceable.   The others have a lot to prove.

At some point, they need to pull the plug on 30 y/o Watkins.  Similar boat for Zimmermann at 28.  I think they start in AAA since they both has an option left and are SP ready.  Then they get any early season next-man-up opportunities.  I can't imagine either of them would be waiver issues going back to AAA.  But at that point, we hopefully see some of the other guys solidifying themselves at AAA (or in Hall's case as an SP). 

The low men of the AAA options are:  Denoyer, Armbruester, Baumann, and/or Vallimont  If I'm the O's, only Hall and Rom are the priorities at AAA for now.  Denoyer is interesting, so he gets the last spot IMO.  

I'm much less versed on BP options, even moreso in the minors...  Agree on Vespi.  I'm hopeful for Cano.  Bazardo, McSweeney, and Garrett could be pieces.  Darwinzon could be a thing if his control... evolves.  I'm not familiar with Hoffman, but his high GB% is nice even if the rest of his stats are meh.  This has to be Gomez's last shot to make it to the bigs, right?  The low men above are looking like strong BP options at this point comparatively.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

At some point, they need to pull the plug on 30 y/o Watkins.  Similar boat for Zimmermann at 28.  I think they start in AAA since they both has an option left and are SP ready.  Then they get any early season next-man-up opportunities.  I can't imagine either of them would be waiver issues going back to AAA.  But at that point, we hopefully see some of the other guys solidifying themselves at AAA (or in Hall's case as an SP). 

The low men of the AAA options are:  Denoyer, Armbruester, Baumann, and/or Vallimont  If I'm the O's, only Hall and Rom are the priorities at AAA for now.  Denoyer is interesting, so he gets the last spot IMO.  

I'm much less versed on BP options, even moreso in the minors...  Agree on Vespi.  I'm hopeful for Cano.  Bazardo, McSweeney, and Garrett could be pieces.  Darwinzon could be a thing if his control... evolves.  I'm not familiar with Hoffman, but his high GB% is nice even if the rest of his stats are meh.  This has to be Gomez's last shot to make it to the bigs, right?  The low men above are looking like strong BP options at this point comparatively.

Huh?  There is no reason to even think of pulling the plug on Watkins right now. He is solid depth. He isn’t some great pitcher and he certainly could implode at any moment but right now, he is excellent depth to have.  Not many teams are pulling up a vet starter from the minors that is much better than he is.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Huh?  There is no reason to even think of pulling the plug on Watkins right now. He is solid depth. He isn’t some great pitcher and he certainly could implode at any moment but right now, he is excellent depth to have.  Not many teams are pulling up a vet starter from the minors that is much better than he is.

You're missing the context of the discussion.  He's fine for depth.  I doubt he's here next year.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

You're missing the context of the discussion.  He's fine for depth.  I doubt he's here next year.

Ehh, I wouldn’t say I doubt it. I think it’s more 50/50 as of today.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

All of this is good stuff. I agree with all of it.

It is funny how people forget that stretch when everyone was ready for him to come up. He still had too many walks but he also looked too good for AAA and then it fell apart.

Don't get me wrong, I am pretty down on Hall. I might trade him to another organization in part of a Burnes type deal. But I still see the bull case for sure and there is a huge range of outcomes still on the table. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Don't get me wrong, I am pretty down on Hall. I might trade him to another organization in part of a Burnes type deal. But I still see the bull case for sure and there is a huge range of outcomes still on the table. 

Would definitely trade him and have felt that way for multiple years now.

But they haven’t traded him And he is still here, so since he is, you should give him the optimal chance to see if he can reach his ceiling as a starter.

That chance is definitely dwindling down but that chance shouldn’t be taken away yet.

[eddie83]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2023.shtml
 

Pitching and hitting stats this spring. 
 

Keep in mind guys like Watkins are Zimmerman are listed under relievers. 

[interloper]

Green = looking good enough so far.
Yellow = unknown/undecided yet. 
Red = not looking good or the player is on IL. 

Akin
Givens
Perez
Voth
Wells
Watkins
Zimmermann
Gillaspie
Bazardo
Bautista
Vespi
Hall
Politi
Baker
Tate
Baumann
Krehbiel
Cano

Obviously, Bautista we hope will be trending green after today's outing. Guys like Zimmermann, Watkins, Bazardo, and Gillaspie - it's nice that they're pitching well, but they're not exactly projected to make the team. If more than one of them do, it means something went pretty wrong. 

Still a long way to go. It was big that Perez looked like Perez in his last outing. The Tate injury remains kind of a thorn in the side of this bullpen. If I'm the O's I'm thinking a lot about supplementing this group somehow, and I'm thinking extra hard about putting Hall in the bullpen that is suddenly lacking some swing-and-miss weapons. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A normal rational human being would be able to see the merits of the other side of the argument without calling them foolish.    You've spent 20 years here being tone-deaf.     I'm used to it.     Tony isn't used to being on the other end of your typical retorts to the rest of the board.

Tony also knows when just to ignore someone who is arguing like a teenager who can only see his own points and sees all others as silly or foolish. I raised three of them, I'm not going to engage with a grown ass adult who is going to act that way. 

I have no desire to debate with a brick wall that believes your opinions are silly of foolish because they don't mesh with their very narrow, black or white POV. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree with this. We forget, Hall was looking dominant and ready for promotion at the All Star as a starter last year. Everyone on this board was calling for his promotion. Then they did that weird 1 inning start after the break that seemed to mess him up, he had two horrible starts in a row, a meh start, and another horrible one. At that point he got promoted as a reliever. Not sure if they messed him up or if he was out of gas at that point but up til then he looked bona fide. If he can put together a good stretch like the beginning of last year, he could be the next man up when there is an injury, or give Grayson a rest when he hits his limit.

In DL Hall's first ten starts last year he put up a 5.17 ERA and he walked 28 and batters put up a .225/.356/.354/.710 slash line against him in the 38.1 IP.  He was able to complete five innings once and after having his pitch count moved up to 90 pitches over the last three of those 10 starts, he was not able to go more than 4.1 IP. 

Then, he turned basically unhittable for four starts at the beginning of July where everything was working. He held batters to a .113/.203/.169/.372 slash line striking out 40 while walking 8 in the 20.1 innings those four starts covered. Trust me, when you watch these starts you go away very, very impressed. But here's where it becomes interesting. In two of those starts, Hall was given a 100-pitch pitch count. In the others it looked like he had an 80 pitch count. He was only able to complete six innings in one of those starts (the only time all season).

The Orioles then gave him that weird one inning start (I'm still not convinced that was the plan, but something happened) and then he had that terrible start at Memphis where he gave up 6 runs without getting out of the first inning. Over his next two starts with 100-pitch counts, he had one bad and one good start but wasn't able to go more than 5.1 innings against AAA hitters.

I don't have his breakdown of stats from innings 1-3 vs 4+, but I can tell you from watching him that the command generally gets very, very shaky once he reaches that 50-60+ pitch count area.

The Orioles then brought him up for the weird start in August (76 pitches to get through 3.1 IP) and then returned him to the minors to pitch as a reliever the rest of the year. 

So really, we have a 4-game stretch where Hall looked like a bonafide starter and even in those he was only able to complete 6 innings once against AAA hitters. The rest of the season we have a guy who struggled a bunch once he got into the fourth inning and beyond. 

BTW, if you want to go back in time, he had one start in AA where he pitched 6 innings before getting hurt and only two starts where he completed 6 innings in High-A the year before.  

So to recap, 6 innings starts in his career:
AAA- 1
AA - 1
High-A - 2
Low-A - 2

So we have a young pitcher who has been able to complete 6 innings, 6 times in 69 minor league starts. 

At the end of the day, Hall is extremely talented (Remember I put him as the #4 prospect in a deep system) but I think it's a little disingenuous to say he looked like a bonafide major league starter because honestly, it was a 3-start stretch where he dominated in 5+ innings starts.

Now, could he still put it all together and become a starter still, sure, that's a possibility. Is it likely at 24 and half years old he suddenly finds the command, endurance and health to be a successful major league starter long term, I don't believe it is. 

Is it much more likely that Hall goes out into the bullpen and becomes a multi-inning impact late innings reliever or dominant closer? Yes.

So the question the Orioles have to ask themselves is do they believe the best use of Hall's bullets is him trying to find the consistency and endurance that he's never consistently showed in the minors as a starter in AAA this year, or is it better to take that talented arm and allow him to impact your bullpen on what they hope is a contending team? 

 

[Aristotelian]

34 minutes ago, interloper said:

Green = looking good enough so far.
Yellow = unknown/undecided yet. 
Red = not looking good or the player is on IL. 

Akin
Givens
Perez
Voth
Wells
Watkins
Zimmermann
Gillaspie
Bazardo
Bautista
Vespi
Hall
Baker
Tate
Baumann
Krehbiel
Politi
Cano

 

Great list. Politi is a yellow for me as all his earned runs came in one bad appearance. 

Do you think if Baker keeps struggling he is in danger of not making the team? He does have options.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

At some point, they need to pull the plug on 30 y/o Watkins.  Similar boat for Zimmermann at 28.  I think they start in AAA since they both has an option left and are SP ready.  Then they get any early season next-man-up opportunities.  I can't imagine either of them would be waiver issues going back to AAA.  But at that point, we hopefully see some of the other guys solidifying themselves at AAA (or in Hall's case as an SP). 

The low men of the AAA options are:  Denoyer, Armbruester, Baumann, and/or Vallimont  If I'm the O's, only Hall and Rom are the priorities at AAA for now.  Denoyer is interesting, so he gets the last spot IMO.  

I'm much less versed on BP options, even moreso in the minors...  Agree on Vespi.  I'm hopeful for Cano.  Bazardo, McSweeney, and Garrett could be pieces.  Darwinzon could be a thing if his control... evolves.  I'm not familiar with Hoffman, but his high GB% is nice even if the rest of his stats are meh.  This has to be Gomez's last shot to make it to the bigs, right?  The low men above are looking like strong BP options at this point comparatively.

If you mean pull the plug as in reassign them to AAA at some point, I agree, but they are decent depth as swing starters or long men in the bullpen. Since they both have and with options, they can ride the Norfolk shuttle easily, so I like them in AAA.

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Great list. Politi is a yellow for me as all his earned runs came in one bad appearance. 

Do you think if Baker keeps struggling he is in danger of not making the team? He does have options.

Yeah, you're right. I'll make Politi yellow for now. 

I think Baker's option absolutely puts him in a little bit of danger, at least temporarily. You could buy some time with someone optionable like Gillaspie while Baker gets it together in AAA. But like I said, there's a lot of time left. His velocity is there, so that's good, but his location isn't there. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by interloper

[Aristotelian]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

In DL Hall's first ten starts last year he put up a 5.17 ERA and he walked 28 and batters put up a .225/.356/.354/.710 slash line against him in the 38.1 IP.  He was able to complete five innings once and after having his pitch count moved up to 90 pitches over the last three of those 10 starts, he was not able to go more than 4.1 IP. 

Then, he turned basically unhittable for four starts at the beginning of July where everything was working. He held batters to a .113/.203/.169/.372 slash line striking out 40 while walking 8 in the 20.1 innings those four starts covered. Trust me, when you watch these starts you go away very, very impressed. But here's where it becomes interesting. In two of those starts, Hall was given a 100-pitch pitch count. In the others it looked like he had an 80 pitch count. He was only able to complete six innings in one of those starts (the only time all season).

The Orioles then gave him that weird one inning start (I'm still not convinced that was the plan, but something happened) and then he had that terrible start at Memphis where he gave up 6 runs without getting out of the first inning. Over his next two starts with 100-pitch counts, he had one bad and one good start but wasn't able to go more than 5.1 innings against AAA hitters.

I don't have his breakdown of stats from innings 1-3 vs 4+, but I can tell you from watching him that the command generally gets very, very shaky once he reaches that 50-60+ pitch count area.

The Orioles then brought him up for the weird start in August (76 pitches to get through 3.1 IP) and then returned him to the minors to pitch as a reliever the rest of the year. 

So really, we have a 4-game stretch where Hall looked like a bonafide starter and even in those he was only able to complete 6 innings once against AAA hitters. The rest of the season we have a guy who struggled a bunch once he got into the fourth inning and beyond. 

BTW, if you want to go back in time, he had one start in AA where he pitched 6 innings before getting hurt and only two starts where he completed 6 innings in High-A the year before.  

So to recap, 6 innings starts in his career:
AAA- 1
AA - 1
High-A - 2
Low-A - 2

So we have a young pitcher who has been able to complete 6 innings, 6 times in 69 minor league starts. 

At the end of the day, Hall is extremely talented (Remember I put him as the #4 prospect in a deep system) but I think it's a little disingenuous to say he looked like a bonafide major league starter because honestly, it was a 3-start stretch where he dominated in 5+ innings starts.

Now, could he still put it all together and become a starter still, sure, that's a possibility. Is it likely at 24 and half years old he suddenly finds the command, endurance and health to be a successful major league starter long term, I don't believe it is. 

Is it much more likely that Hall goes out into the bullpen and becomes a multi-inning impact late innings reliever or dominant closer? Yes.

So the question the Orioles have to ask themselves is do they believe the best use of Hall's bullets is him trying to find the consistency and endurance that he's never consistently showed in the minors as a starter in AAA this year, or is it better to take that talented arm and allow him to impact your bullpen on what they hope is a contending team? 

 

Good post. I definitely see both sides of this one. You are definitely right about him having unproven endurance. Part of that was managing pitch counts with a young prospect. I would still lean toward maximizing his upside and continue developing him as a starter. They can always pull the plug and turn him back into a reliever if he never gets it together.