Jordan Westburg 2023

[Brooks The Great]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t think they are ready to move on from Hays either way.

With as bad as Hays can be when he's slumping (like he is at the moment), I think the team will have no choice but to make a move if Hays struggles for a prolonged stretch.

I'm perfectly fine with Hays becoming the 4th outfielder and DFA'ing McKenna. That's the point I'm looking forward to when our roster will be optimized, and also well above average offensively.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Westburg is in a tough spot. There is a logjam in the Major League IF. No openings in the OF either.

At the minor league level, Ortiz is a better defender. Norby might be a better bat.

There is competition everywhere, and no clear path to the big leagues. 

Great problem to have that only a 162 game schedule can remedy.  
 

Batted lead off and played SS today. Norfolk team is stacked.  Stowers down there is going to squeeze Haskin, Cameron, Lester, Diaz, O’Hearn for ABs. 
 

Cowser got the day off.  O’Hearn & Lester are getting reps in RF.  
 

love all the competition. 

[Billy F-Face3]

7 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

With as bad as Hays can be when he's slumping (like he is at the moment), I think the team will have no choice but to make a move if Hays struggles for a prolonged stretch.

I'm perfectly fine with Hays becoming the 4th outfielder and DFA'ing McKenna. That's the point I'm looking forward to when our roster will be optimized, and also well above average offensively.

Hays keeps getting robbed from the new wall in left field. So does Mountcastle. That said, I would've probably given Stowers or Vavra a shot in left field every 3rd or 4th game against a RHP.  Hays seems pretty good against lefties, but not always so good against righties. (Can you tell that I disagree with Stowers getting optioned?)

Edited April 10, 2023 by Billy F-Face3

[sportsfan8703]

At this point Westburg should be playing COF permanently.  We need him versus LHP.  His bat is just too good.  The O's and other teams know what type of IF he is.  

[baltfan]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At this point Westburg should be playing COF permanently.  We need him versus LHP.  His bat is just too good.  The O's and other teams know what type of IF he is.  

Is the bat better than Norby’s?  Norby seems to have a little more success at AAA and is a year younger 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

Is the bat better than Norby’s?  Norby seems to have a little more success at AAA and is a year younger 

They profile very similarly. 

I think Norbys bat is a touch better.  He’s hitting a HR every 18 ABs vs. Westburg every 22.  

They walk just about the same rate every 7.5 for Norby vs. 8 Westburg.  

Norby ks every 3.9 AB vs. every 3.5 Westburg.  
 

they both have prolific power.  They both have speed and steal/are successful at similar rates. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by emmett16

[Brooks The Great]

47 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

They profile very similarly. 

I think Norbys bat is a touch better.  He’s hitting a HR every 18 ABs vs. Westburg every 22.  

They walk just about the same rate every 7.5 for Norby vs. 8 Westburg.  

Norby ks every 3.9 AB vs. every 3.5 Westburg.  
 

they both have prolific power.  They both have speed and steal/are successful at similar rates. 

I'd take Westburg in either corner OF spot and Norby in the other. Trade Santander and Hays, or trade Santander and make Hays the 4th OF.

Mateo, Urias, and Frazier should also be traded (Frazier will probably be the hardest to move because of his contract, but it won't be impossible if Frazier is having a decent season). Trade all 3 and you can put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, and Gunnar at 3B.

Dream scenario is to trade all of Mateo, Urias, Frazier, and Santander at the deadline. Put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, Norby in RF, Cowser in LF, Kjerstad at DH, Hays 4th OF. Cowser and Hays can back up CF, and Kjerstad can back up 1B and RF as well. That would be an incredible lineup, and it's within the realm of possibility. 

[ChuckS]

8 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'd take Westburg in either corner OF spot and Norby in the other. Trade Santander and Hays, or trade Santander and make Hays the 4th OF.

Mateo, Urias, and Frazier should also be traded (Frazier will probably be the hardest to move because of his contract, but it won't be impossible if Frazier is having a decent season). Trade all 3 and you can put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, and Gunnar at 3B.

Dream scenario is to trade all of Mateo, Urias, Frazier, and Santander at the deadline. Put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, Norby in RF, Cowser in LF, Kjerstad at DH, Hays 4th OF. Cowser and Hays can back up CF, and Kjerstad can back up 1B and RF as well. That would be an incredible lineup, and it's within the realm of possibility. 

You want two guys who've never played the OF before playing both corners on the Major League squad?  Okay. 

I think Norby is going to end up in the OF for sure, but I'd expect both of them to get worked in slowly if they don't get traded before the opportunity arises. 

If we are trading all four of those guys you mentioned at the deadline, it will be because we've fallen out of contention.  That's a dream scenario for you?

[owknows]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

If we are trading all four of those guys you mentioned at the deadline, it will be because we've fallen out of contention.  That's a dream scenario for you?

Not sure I agree.

If we trade those guys (or a significant subset of them) it will be because we have a wave of Major League talent that is likely better than the players we have occupying those positions, and we need to clear some space for graduating those players (and restocking the low minors in the process).

No reason we can't trade away some MLB players and get better at the same time.

[ChuckS]

10 minutes ago, owknows said:

Not sure I agree.

If we trade those guys (or a significant subset of them) it will be because we have a wave of Major League talent that is likely better than the players we have occupying those positions, and we need to clear some space for graduating those players (and restocking the low minors in the process).

No reason we can't trade away some MLB players and get better at the same time.

Has this regime done anything to make you believe they would pull any of these guys from the everyday lineup, much less trade them all away if we are the middle of a playoff race?

There's zero chance that we trade half of our starting lineup away at the deadline, unless we are out of it.  I can see a trade of one or two vets, potentially if one of our current minor leaguers is promoted and is outperforming them.  But that will unfortunately mean, their value has been reduced and we won't be looking at much of a return. 

I just don't see this "wave of major league talent" getting the kind of opportunities they would need to make all of those vets mentioned expendable by the July deadline. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by ChuckS

[glenn__davis]

8 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

I'd take Westburg in either corner OF spot and Norby in the other. Trade Santander and Hays, or trade Santander and make Hays the 4th OF.

Mateo, Urias, and Frazier should also be traded (Frazier will probably be the hardest to move because of his contract, but it won't be impossible if Frazier is having a decent season). Trade all 3 and you can put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, and Gunnar at 3B.

Dream scenario is to trade all of Mateo, Urias, Frazier, and Santander at the deadline. Put Westburg at 2B, Ortiz at SS, Norby in RF, Cowser in LF, Kjerstad at DH, Hays 4th OF. Cowser and Hays can back up CF, and Kjerstad can back up 1B and RF as well. That would be an incredible lineup, and it's within the realm of possibility. 

That would be an incredible lineup if all of them pan out.  While that would be awesome, it's also extremely unlikely.

I love prospects and seeing young players get their chance as much as the next guy but the lineup you pose above it just as likely to be a major bust as it is some offensive juggernaut.

[owknows]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Has this regime done anything to make you believe they would pull any of these guys from the everyday lineup, much less trade them all away if we are the middle of a playoff race?

There's zero chance that we trade half of our starting lineup away at the deadline, unless we are out of it.  I can see a trade of one or two vets, potentially if one of our current minor leaguers is promoted and is outperforming them.  But that will unfortunately mean, their value has been reduced and we won't be looking at much of a return. 

I just don't see this "wave of major league talent" getting the kind of opportunities they would need to make all of those vets mentioned expendable by the July deadline. 

Maybe a little increase in dietary fiber would help you discuss things without the veins in your forehead bulging as you type.

That notwithstanding... the Orioles have a serious logjam in the middle infield. And in coming years, a logjam with nearly all skill positions. Players will be traded and re-positioned to accommodate that logjam. If for no other reason than to extract some value for players which will ultimately not be part of the long term strategy. Which players, and when, is certainly a matter of discussion. If by mid-season the Orioles are in contention... But two or three players with at least a season at Norfolk are tearing the cover off the ball, and two or three players on the big club are.. not performing as well as their Norfolk counterparts... it would not surprise me at all to see some of those players traded.

As for what the front office might do with significant assets even during a viable playoff possibility... I give you last year's trade of a premium reliever as an example.

[Bemorewins]

I understand the thinking with the graduating/pipeline/stay young and cheap approach. I believe this is ownership dream… spend as little and make as much as you can.

However, as a fan of the team and as a lifelong resident of the community, this is not the approach that I want to see them take. I would like the org to do what it takes to win a title. It’s been 40 years now since the last World Series game was played in Baltimore!

The problem w the pipeline/prospect approach is that we didn’t draft for that these last 5 years. We are overloaded with positional players and prospects, but we do not have the adequate pitching to compete at a championship level. 
 

People keep talking about following the Rays model, but that’s not what we have. They have had elite pitching for the last 15 years regardless of manager changes, front office changes, etc. 
 

Even after all the wonderful work that Elias has done in prospect accumulation, we don’t have that or anything close to resembling that. 
 

The type of pitching needed in order to consistently win at the highest level will need to come from acquiring pieces outside of the organization. Yes, we have Grayson’s potential and maybe Means returning to top form for another season. The problem is… those are big MAYBES. Our competitors have real, surefire, bonafide aces. We are going to have to go through them in order to beat them. Which means stacking talent against talent. Not hoping on a wing and prayer and being satisfied, “because well at least we are young and cheap”. Unfortunately, they don’t give trophies for that. We need top level pitching to win big games.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I understand the thinking with the graduating/pipeline/stay young and cheap approach. I believe this is ownership dream… spend as little and make as much as you can.

However, as a fan of the team and as a lifelong resident of the community, this is not the approach that I want to see them take. I would like the org to do what it takes to win a title. It’s been 40 years now since the last World Series game was played in Baltimore!

The problem w the pipeline/prospect approach is that we didn’t draft for that these last 5 years. We are overloaded with positional players and prospects, but we do not have the adequate pitching to compete at a championship level. 
 

People keep talking about following the Rays model, but that’s not what we have. They have had elite pitching for the last 15 years regardless of manager changes, front office changes, etc. 
 

Even after all the wonderful work that Elias has done in prospect accumulation, we don’t have that or anything close to resembling that. 
 

The type of pitching needed in order to consistently win at the highest level will need to come from acquiring pieces outside of the organization. Yes, we have Grayson’s potential and maybe Means returning to top form for another season. The problem is… those are big MAYBES. Our competitors have real, surefire, bonafide aces. We are going to have to go through them in order to beat them. Which means stacking talent against talent. Not hoping on a wing and prayer and being satisfied, “because well at least we are young and cheap”. Unfortunately, they don’t give trophies for that. We need top level pitching to win big games.

What if I told you that the O's had more pitchers that we have drafted on our MLB roster than Tampa?  Not just sheer number but also be slot/draft capital as well. 

Baltimore:  1.11, 54th pick, 98th pick

Tampa:  1.31 and 139th pick.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I understand the thinking with the graduating/pipeline/stay young and cheap approach. I believe this is ownership dream… spend as little and make as much as you can.

However, as a fan of the team and as a lifelong resident of the community, this is not the approach that I want to see them take. I would like the org to do what it takes to win a title. It’s been 40 years now since the last World Series game was played in Baltimore!

The problem w the pipeline/prospect approach is that we didn’t draft for that these last 5 years. We are overloaded with positional players and prospects, but we do not have the adequate pitching to compete at a championship level. 
 

People keep talking about following the Rays model, but that’s not what we have. They have had elite pitching for the last 15 years regardless of manager changes, front office changes, etc. 
 

Even after all the wonderful work that Elias has done in prospect accumulation, we don’t have that or anything close to resembling that. 
 

The type of pitching needed in order to consistently win at the highest level will need to come from acquiring pieces outside of the organization. Yes, we have Grayson’s potential and maybe Means returning to top form for another season. The problem is… those are big MAYBES. Our competitors have real, surefire, bonafide aces. We are going to have to go through them in order to beat them. Which means stacking talent against talent. Not hoping on a wing and prayer and being satisfied, “because well at least we are young and cheap”. Unfortunately, they don’t give trophies for that. We need top level pitching to win big games.

The lack of true sure fire starting pitching prospects after Grayson Rodriguez is an issue that Elias needs to either solve by trading the surplus of offensive talent or free agency. I doubt Angelos will ever give him a budget to do the real free agency or trade for an establish ace thing, so it's going to have to come from the talent.

Here in lies the rub though. While there are definitely some real good hitters in the system, they come with defensive warts for the most part. Joey Ortiz is about the only high level prospect that looks to have a plus bat and certainly plus defense. Cowser is struggling offensively, Westburg and Norby have defensive limitations on the dirt, Mayo will have a hard time unseating Henderson at 3B and probably will end up in RF or 1B. Kjerstad is new to 1B so the jury is out on his defensive abilities and the other are too far away to trade for enouh value (though obviously Holliday is a blue chip guy).

What team is going to give up a potential ace for any trade package that doesn't start with Holliday? Are the Orioles willing to do that? 

The Orioles were unable or unwilling to part with surplus talent and now they have guys like Stowers, Norby, Westburg and Ortiz in AAA with holes in their major league bullpen and no true ace at the top of the rotation. 

At some point Elias has to pull the trigger and be willing to move guys who will be good major leaguers but who play a redundant position to talent on hand.