Vavra's nice spring

[Tony-OH]

I think Vavra having a nice spring is worth a little discussion. Here's another 2B/UTL guy having a nice spring and yesterday went yard on a deep shot to CF. He's slashing .351/.390/.622/1.012 on the spring with two HRs and 2 doubles in 41 PAs. 

Now, it's tough to say how he's looked defensively since we haven't had many games on TV, but it's nice to see him playing some 3B. Interestingly, despite the fact that it seemed like the Orioles did not like his defense at 2B last year as they played Odor over him, he's played 2B seven times this year. He's played 3B four times, LF just once, and even has a game at 1B (though  must have missed that).

The Orioles have given him the 3rd most PAs this spring of any infielder so it's clear they are giving him every opportunity to win a job. Now without rehashing the Frazier conversation like the Westburg thread, he's another option that I would have felt was fine starting the year platooning with Urias at 2B if they were intent on sending Westburg back to AAA for some reason. By the way, he's out homered Westburg this spring in 7 less PAs. Yes, it's probably a statistical anomaly, but it's a fat non the less.

Now, the Orioles have given Josh Lester a lot of PAs (49) and he's played a games at 3B-9, 1B-8, LF-2, and RF-1. He's slashed a decent .298/.327/.468/.795 but he's very slow and there are questions about his range at 3B. If it does come down to Vavra vs Lester, I think Vavra wins hands down to be the 26th man. Now Franchy Cordero and Ryan O'Hearn ($1.4 million contract) have hit well this spring and if the Orioles are looking just for the left-handed hitting 1B/DH type they could be in the running, but I think Elias/Hyde will want more defensive versatility which gives Vavra a leg up on all. 

While we still have a few more spring training games left, I think Vavra has made his case to be part of the 26-man roster heading north for opening day.

   

 

[interloper]

I will be extremely disappointed if he doesn't make the roster. He's looking like a crucial bench piece on a good team. Over a full season it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which he's a comparable hitter to someone like Urias. That's jumping the gun, probably, but I absolutely love his ABs. 

The last couple games have seen the 1B/OF trio of Cordero, O'Hearn, and Lester cool off a good bit. They're starting to face pitchers who are actually caring about results on the final week or so of ST, and I think we're going to see them look more like the AAAA guys that they are. They're great depth but they don't really warrant a spot over Vavra and McKenna IMO. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

I think Vavra has done everything he can to win a job.  Most important to me, he’s shown extra base power that was lacking during his two months in the majors last year.  He’s never going to be a huge slugger, but he needs enough zing so the pitchers will respect him.  I think he’s shown he has that.   I’m rooting for him to hold his spot.  

[waroriole]

He’s earned it. I’m impressed with the SLG and ISO. My biggest concern with him has always been the lack of power and how that might contribute to a decline in OBP at the MLB level. If he can show enough power to keep pitchers honest, he has a bright future. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Vavra is probably a better hitter than all of the huge number of LH AAA guys brought in to compete for the backup 1B job. They clearly don’t believe in his defense at 2B to be a starter there, and we have so many prospects that his future with this organization is as a utility guy. 

He’s the best option right now as the 26th man, but I think it makes sense to get him some regular at bats at AAA (he still doesn’t have a ton of AAA/MLB plate appearances) and more experience moving between 3B/1B (in addition to continuing his prior experience at 2B/LF). If he hits really well, taps into more power like he’s shown at AA and below (and in Spring Training), and/or shows some improvement in 2B defense, he could force his way to a more prominent MLB role or become a decent trade chip. If not, maybe he rides the Norfolk shuttle or settles in as the seldom used 26th man. 

[interloper]

Just now, CaptainRedbeard said:

Vavra is probably a better hitter than all of the huge number of LH AAA guys brought in to compete for the backup 1B job. They clearly don’t believe in his defense at 2B to be a starter there, and we have so many prospects that his future with this organization is as a utility guy. 

He’s the best option right now as the 26th man, but I think it makes sense to get him some regular at bats at AAA (he still doesn’t have a ton of AAA/MLB plate appearances) and more experience moving between 3B/1B (in addition to continuing his prior experience at 2B/LF). If he hits really well, taps into more power like he’s shown at AA and below (and in Spring Training), and/or shows some improvement in 2B defense, he could force his way to a more prominent MLB role or become a decent trade chip. If not, maybe he rides the Norfolk shuttle or settles in as the seldom used 26th man. 

I view Vavra kind of like McKenna in that, a bench player is probably who they are, and it's fine to have them be a young bench player on the ML roster. He'll get plenty of opportunities with Hyde's rotations, and it's time for him to just be a big leaguer over getting more regular ABs in AAA. IMO. 

[btdart20]

 I think he's earned it too!  I like that Vavra has been given time at 3B this spring.  It would have been nice if he could have had some more than 1 total inning there in the minors last year...  They obviously don't like his defense at 2B but value his plate discipline.  

Frazier = 2B/LF, Urias = 2B/3B, Gunnar = SS/3B, Mateo = SS/PR, Vavra = 3B/UT.  Tons of depth and flexibility to maximize hitting profile/pitcher match ups.  Not just R/L, but pitch mix too.

We still have question marks in the IF as well.  Does Frazier's OBP bounce back?  Can Mateo hit like it's 2021 or is there a lower floor than 2022?  Can Gunnar improve on his cup of coffee last year?  Vavra is another layer of protection.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Vavra is probably a better hitter than all of the huge number of LH AAA guys brought in to compete for the backup 1B job. They clearly don’t believe in his defense at 2B to be a starter there, and we have so many prospects that his future with this organization is as a utility guy. 

He’s the best option right now as the 26th man, but I think it makes sense to get him some regular at bats at AAA (he still doesn’t have a ton of AAA/MLB plate appearances) and more experience moving between 3B/1B (in addition to continuing his prior experience at 2B/LF). If he hits really well, taps into more power like he’s shown at AA and below (and in Spring Training), and/or shows some improvement in 2B defense, he could force his way to a more prominent MLB role or become a decent trade chip. If not, maybe he rides the Norfolk shuttle or settles in as the seldom used 26th man. 

This is how I was thinking at the beginning of ST. Let Vavra start in AAA and play all over the place. However, his future role is as a utility guy, so why not let him just have that role now?  
 

Does Cordero have an opt out if he doesn’t make the OD roster?  If so, that could factor into keeping Cordero. 

[oriole]

Part of me feels like having guys like Vavra and Stowers on the roster is a waste. Neither are going to play terribly often, Frazier will be an almost every day player and Santander will play a good bit of OF. There’s just not a lot of room and we’ve seen how Hyde likes to manage veterans vs prospects. 

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, oriole said:

Part of me feels like having guys like Vavra and Stowers on the roster is a waste. Neither are going to play terribly often, Frazier will be an almost every day player and Santander will play a good bit of OF. There’s just not a lot of room and we’ve seen how Hyde likes to manage veterans vs prospects. 

Why do you think Stowers is not going to play often? He's going to most likely be the starting RF with Santander DHing a lot. 

[Aristotelian]

I would also note his HR yesterday was to center (slightly oppo field) and his first homer was listed as something like 450 ft. So he is showing some MLB power. I'd like to see more of his bat, only question is where he plays. 

If they don't like him at 2B, he could DH, but that would force Santander to play RF and take AB's from Hays or Stowers. I think he would be an interesting option for 1B if Mountcastle struggles. There are enough scenarios where I'd like to keep him around but unfortunately no place for him as an everyday starter. 

One thing he brings as a "jack of all trades, master of none" is that he gives us the option to trade just about anyone and he can fill in until there is a permanent replacement.

[RarityFlaherty]

Does anyone that has watched some of the games have any insight on how he’s looked defensively? As good as he’s hit this spring, I feel like that’ll probably be the deciding factor on if he makes the roster. If he can play decent enough at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF, he would be a really solid utility guy off the bench. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Does anyone that has watched some of the games have any insight on how he’s looked defensively? As good as he’s hit this spring, I feel like that’ll probably be the deciding factor on if he makes the roster. If he can play decent enough at 1B, 2B, 3B, and OF, he would be a really solid utility guy off the bench. 

I know he made two very nice plays at 3B the first time he played there.  That’s all I’ve got.  

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why do you think Stowers is not going to play often? He's going to most likely be the starting RF with Santander DHing a lot. 

I hope you're right but they way they deployed him last year did not seem like a strong vote of confidence. And, Cowser could come and take AB's from him sooner rather than later. And maybe Kjerstad not long after. It does seem like he could get stuck in Vavra-land where he is treated more as a role player, with either vets or top prospects getting more favorable treatment.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I hope you're right but they way they deployed him last year did not seem like a strong vote of confidence. And, Cowser could come and take AB's from him sooner rather than later. And maybe Kjerstad not long after. It does seem like he could get stuck in Vavra-land where he is treated more as a role player, with either vets or top prospects getting more favorable treatment.

Stowers has 47 PAs this spring, more than any other outfielder and 3rd most on the team. He's slashed a respectable .286/.362/.405/.766. Although he hasn't shown the pop that we all know he's capable of, I think it shows they are prepping him to be mostly an everyday guy this year. Now long term, could Cowser or Kjerstad replace him, perhaps, but Kjerstad is going to get his everyday shot this year. What he does with it will determine his long term role.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't make the team or is a 26th man 5th outfielder type. He's going to get a lot of opportunities but his performance will dictate how long that opportunity lasts. If he struggling in May and Cowser is killing it AAA, he could certainly lose his roster spot, but I don't see him needing to be concerned about that until probably mid-May at the earliest, and that's only if he's struggling.