Vavra's nice spring

[wildcard]

A lot depends on opt outs.  Who has them and who do the O's want to kept.   Vavra may  have earned a spot on the 26 man spot but if the O's have to kept someone in the organization that they like than that could affect Vavra.  

I think we have to consider who would take Mountcastle place if he pulled a hamstring and was out for 4 to 6 weeks.   Whoever that is the O's will want to kept him in the organization even if he has an opt out.

With the way Westburg has shown this spring he could be promoted as early two weeks in April.   Ortiz could be ready by May.     I hope Frazier gets off to a hot start and is traded sometime between May 1st to July 31st.    If he can bring back a good prospect that would be a good move by Elias.

All these things - opt outs, injuries, promotions could impact Vavra.   Both at the beginning of the season and as the season progresses.

Edited March 23, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Stowers has 47 PAs this spring, more than any other outfielder and 3rd most on the team. He's slashed a respectable .286/.362/.405/.766. Although he hasn't shown the pop that we all know he's capable of, I think it shows they are prepping him to be mostly an everyday guy this year. Now long term, could Cowser or Kjerstad replace him, perhaps, but Kjerstad is going to get his everyday shot this year. What he does with it will determine his long term role.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't make the team or is a 26th man 5th outfielder type. He's going to get a lot of opportunities but his performance will dictate how long that opportunity lasts. If he struggling in May and Cowser is killing it AAA, he could certainly lose his roster spot, but I don't see him needing to be concerned about that until probably mid-May at the earliest, and that's only if he's struggling. 

I don't expect to see Cowser in the majors until June and Kjerstad not before August at the earliest.

[oriole]

55 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why do you think Stowers is not going to play often? He's going to most likely be the starting RF with Santander DHing a lot. 

It’s crowded. Santander will DH a lot but he’ll also play COF a lot. Frazier will be playing most days and if Vavra makes the club, then he’ll be playing the outfield too (or pushing someone else to the OF). 

[spleen1015]

I definitely think he's earned a spot on the roster but I don't think he'll get it. One of those left handed 1B types is going to get the last spot. The Jesus Aguilar BS that went on at the end of last year makes me think this is a strong possibility.

[PsychoBird68]

I love Vavras OBP and he had a great spring but I believe they send him down to work on his defense as a super utility guy and I also think they send Mckenna down to get everyday atbats and Daz and O'hearn make the 26man....  

[CaptainRedbeard]

19 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

This is how I was thinking at the beginning of ST. Let Vavra start in AAA and play all over the place. However, his future role is as a utility guy, so why not let him just have that role now?  
 

Does Cordero have an opt out if he doesn’t make the OD roster?  If so, that could factor into keeping Cordero. 

Cordero has a split contract that pays him more at the MLB level than in AAA. I believe many of those have a built in opt out where the player would need to accept the minor league assignment (and they might, depending on spring training performance and how much they would be paid). Cordero has hit well enough in spring training and the Orioles will have so many similar players in AAA that I think he’s likely to use the opt out, assuming he has one. 

Mazara has an opt out but I don’t think the Orioles care if he uses it - they’ll likely only have room for one of him and Neustrom and neither has much upside. O’Hearn and Diaz I believe do not have opt outs and are likely to be kept as AAA depth. Lester I’m not sure about, but I would guess no opt out there. So I think Cordero is the most likely to stick initially if they are intrigued by his upside. 

Vavra’s future with the Orioles is as a utility man but he doesn’t actually have experience playing 1B and 3B in the minors. I think he needs that before he slides into that role. Giving him regular AAA ABs for a few months also provides some potential that another team could see him as a possible starter, if he hits very well and they are higher on his 2B defense than the Orioles are. If by June or so that hasn’t happened, then he’ll have plenty of AAA at bats and enough time covering other positions to slide into his role as the 26th man utility guy. 

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Cordero has a split contract that pays him more at the MLB level than in AAA. I believe many of those have a built in opt out where the player would need to accept the minor league assignment (and they might, depending on spring training performance and how much they would be paid). Cordero has hit well enough in spring training and the Orioles will have so many similar players in AAA that I think he’s likely to use the opt out, assuming he has one. 

Mazara has an opt out but I don’t think the Orioles care if he uses it - they’ll likely only have room for one of him and Neustrom and neither has much upside. O’Hearn and Diaz I believe do not have opt outs and are likely to be kept as AAA depth. Lester I’m not sure about, but I would guess no opt out there. So I think Cordero is the most likely to stick initially if they are intrigued by his upside. 

Vavra’s future with the Orioles is as a utility man but he doesn’t actually have experience playing 1B and 3B in the minors. I think he needs that before he slides into that role. Giving him regular AAA ABs for a few months also provides some potential that another team could see him as a possible starter, if he hits very well and they are higher on his 2B defense than the Orioles are. If by June or so that hasn’t happened, then he’ll have plenty of AAA at bats and enough time covering other positions to slide into his role as the 26th man utility guy. 

Cordero has a 936 career OPS at AAA in  987 PA and that is about the level of competition he has seen this spring.  He has a 676 career OPS in 726 PA in the majors.   Those numbers are probably more telling than his ST numbers.

He has been pretty poor in the OF and 1B defensively.   He is really a DH.

He may have an opt out but that would not convince me to put him on the 40 man roster.

I'd take Vavra.

[emmett16]

I’m rooting for Vavra.  He was one of my favorite players to watch at Norfolk as he seemingly got on base every at bat.  His ABs are the definition of a professional AB.  I’ve also been cautioning my self to get too excited because he finds a way to get hurt every year.  Maybe the bench roll helps with that?  There is a reason we stocked up on depth.  I think they need to play him while he’s healthy and take advantage while it lasts.  Fingers crossed the kid can stay healthy and keep improving.  He can absolutely wear out the opposing Pitcher.  

[LookinUp]

Love his approach at the plate. I definitely think he can be a valuable ML hitter. Unfortunately, I also thought his defense was below average (eye test) last year. 

We have a roster jam of infielders. I really hope it's very different by about August 1.

[emmett16]

20 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Love his approach at the plate. I definitely think he can be a valuable ML hitter. Unfortunately, I also thought his defense was below average (eye test) last year. 

We have a roster jam of infielders. I really hope it's very different by about August 1.

His arm isn’t awesome.  Makes most of the standard plays, but when a play requires a big arm (DP & GB to backhand) he struggles a bit.  

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

His arm isn’t awesome.  Makes most of the standard plays, but when a play requires a big arm (DP & GB to backhand) he struggles a bit.  

That is what I saw last year.   But is it still true?   Has Vavra worked to improve his throwing at 2B?   

Vavra is now competing with Frazier and Urias for playing time at 2B.  That will include hitting and fielding.    And in a month he may be competing with Westburg and Ortiz for a roster spot.   

I don't have the answers.  But they are things to watch.

[Roll Tide]

On 3/23/2023 at 12:21 PM, wildcard said:

A lot depends on opt outs.  Who has them and who do the O's want to kept.   Vavra may  have earned a spot on the 26 man spot but if the O's have to kept someone in the organization that they like than that could affect Vavra.  

I think we have to consider who would take Mountcastle place if he pulled a hamstring and was out for 4 to 6 weeks.   Whoever that is the O's will want to kept him in the organization even if he has an opt out.

With the way Westburg has shown this spring he could be promoted as early two weeks in April.   Ortiz could be ready by May.     I hope Frazier gets off to a hot start and is traded sometime between May 1st to July 31st.    If he can bring back a good prospect that would be a good move by Elias.

All these things - opt outs, injuries, promotions could impact Vavra.   Both at the beginning of the season and as the season progresses.

I think Vavra has made the team. I’m not concerned with a DL replacement. The guys brought in for the back up 1B job are a dime a dozen and none are more than AAAA players anyway. If we don’t have a guy we can trade a bag of balls for one.

[Three Run Homer]

I think guys like Cordero, Mazara and O'Hearn are replaceable.  If they want out and some other team wants to put them on their major league roster, so be it.  Vavra has the potential to be an above average leadoff or number two hitter in this league, given his excellent hit tool, excellent plate discipline and some signs of improved power.  I think the O's will regret it if they option him and they will really regret it if they trade him.